The Wire - October 3, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z October 3, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES TARGETS IN SYRIA, CONTINUES INVASION OF LEBANON. RECOVERY CONTINUES IN AMERICAN SOUTHEAST.//
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-International Events-
Global: An Earth-facing X9.0-class solar flare has been observed overnight, continuing the heightened solar activity during this solar cycle. AC: This will likely degrade shortwave radio communications for the next few days on the sun-facing side of Earth.
Middle East: Last night, Israeli forces conducted a missile strike near a Russian military base in Syria. AC: The diplomatic situation in Syria with regards to Russia is complicated. Russia maintains several airbases in Syria. Most of these are formerly Syrian military bases, which are now manned and operated by Russians. However, immediately next to some military sites, are large ammo dumps intended for the storage of Iranian arms, and/or supplies for Hezbollah. This is likely what happened at Khmeimim Air Base last night. This facility, which is co-located with Bassel al-Assad International airport, was host to an Israeli naval bombardment via dozens of missiles which struck the facility. Details regarding exactly what was struck are unclear, however initial Syrian media reports indicate that Israel was probably targeting one of these storage facilities that was technically Russian, but really operated by Iranians, proxies, or other non-Russians. However, this is unlikely to matter much, as Russian forces did intercept some of the Israeli missiles targeting the facility.
In response, Russia has ordered all 1.5 million Russian citizens located in Israel to depart the country as soon as possible, while commercial means are still available.
Red Sea/HOA Region: Houthi targeting continues as before, with the successful strike of two western cargo vessels a few days ago. The M/T CORDELIA MOON and the M/V MARATHOPOLIS were struck by Houthi Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) and cruise missiles a few days ago. Both vessels were damaged in the attack, but the crew of both vessels have maintained command and continued to their next port of call.
-HomeFront-
United States: Panic buying has been reported around the nation due to the Longshoremen labor strike. As of this afternoon the Longshoremen have voted to pause the strike until January 15, due to the lives that are being lost due to logistical problems throughout the southeast. However the damage has largely been done, as logistical problems will remain critical for weeks, even if regular port operations recommence right now. This, in combination with the major Baxter healthcare factory being destroying in western North Carolina, has also reportedly resulted in varying shortages of medical supplies around the country. So far, shortages are random and unpredictable (as is common now due to our national just-in-time logistical doctrine).
Washington: This afternoon the Kitsap County Sheriff’s office investigated an IED attack on a vehicle in Bremerton. An unknown individual emplaced an IED underneath a parked vehicle, which detonated as the vehicle owner approached it. No further information regarding the motive for this attack has been released.
Southeast: Improvements are being made in some areas with regards to disaster response, and detrimental effects are being reported in others. Portable Cellular-on-Wheels (COW) arrays and donated Starlink dishes have been instrumental in remote areas obtaining contact with the outside world, and the work to restore electricity to the region has equally been very helpful. However, after almost a week of recovery efforts, much of the region still remains without power or cell service.
As such, FEMA efforts have largely been absent completely or unhelpful so far. FEMA has required citizens (who don’t have power or cell service) to fill out online forms to get aid. The White House has announced a one-time $750 payment to flood victims, which is not likely to help at all at this point.
More locally, the main tensions today arise from the allocation of local assets. Right now, there is contention regarding the deployment of federal military resources to the local area. Allegedly, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper is delaying the activation of Title 10 orders, which would allow federal active duty troops to deploy to the disaster zone to supplement the National Guard assets already deploying. The counter accusations that are being made pertain to the federal assets that are already involved making the situation worse. Evidence is mounting regarding the establishment of checkpoints throughout the region, and law enforcement preventing homeowners and businesses from accessing their own property (though for now these latter reports are generally isolated).
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Analyst Comments: The Israeli strikes in Syria are likely part of the targeting of Iranian proxies that was expected following the Iranian strikes on Israel two days ago. This targeting is likely a prelude to further targeting of military sites in Syria, however the Russian connection is a complicating matter. While the United States has done nothing to cool tensions in the region, Russia becoming involved more directly will undoubtedly change this dynamic.
Analyst: S2A1
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