CNN’s Chalian: We Thought of Immigration as ‘Right-Wing Echo Chamber’ Issue Until Abbott Made Blue Areas Feel It

SOLOMON: “So, to that end, let’s bring in CNN political director David Chalian. David, we should say that we’re expecting to hear from the speaker really momentarily, so it will be curious to hear how he responds to this. But what are your takeaways from last night?”
CHALIAN: “Well, clearly it is a big win for the Democrats. They flip a seat. So, in the short-term, relating to Speaker Johnson’s remarks upcoming here, it narrows his majority and he’s got a lot of thorny issues still ahead of him. And so, having one fewer vote to play with, there’s like no wiggle room for the speaker at this point. So, that’s its most immediate impact. But also, Democrats needed a win at this moment, right, just in terms of the political environment and the aftermath of the Hur report and a lot of Democrats wringing their hands about Joe Biden. But I think it’s also a reminder for Democrats, there doesn’t seem to be, if you look at the November elections, other special elections, there’s not like a Democratic brand problem at the moment. Voters seem to be okay with what the Democrats are selling. We see, whether it was the Kentucky gubernatorial race or other special elections like this one.”
BERMAN: “And Tom Suozzi did not run away from the issue of immigration, which is what Republicans see as their best issue and many Democrats fear is their worst issue. He ran into it. I can’t tell you the number of voters that I talked to who said the border was their number one issue, but they were voting for the Democrat, Tom Suozzi. I can’t remember anything like that in any election I’ve covered.”
CHALIAN: “And this is after, though, Tom Suozzi, was advertising with him on Fox News talking about his full defense of ICE, right? So, not every Democrat runs on the immigration issue the way Tom Suozzi did in this district. It worked for him there. There does seem to be a bit of a divide inside the Democratic Party about how to grapple with this immigration issue. But you’re right, it is going to be a front-and-center issue. We normally think of it, I think in the past, John, that it’s just an issue for the right-wing echo chamber, but the whole movement that Greg Abbott did and what have you to bring the migrant issue and crisis to cities, to blue states and cities, that has changed the calculus here. You see this issue rising in importance for all voters.”
BERMANN: “But can — the Suozzi model, is that something that other Democrats are? And, look, it’s just been a few hours, that’s a long time in politics, are other Democratics already looking at this saying, ‘Hey, maybe we can make some ground?’”
SOLOMON: “Yes, can it be replicated.”
CHALIAN: “Yes, and there’s no doubt about it. And, by the way, Democrats were handed a gift by Donald Trump just the last week when he tanked the border security compromise bill that was coming out of the Senate and told the House not to vote for it, and Speaker Johnson agreed. That is something that Democrats have seized on. You heard Joe Biden say last week, he’s going to remind voters of that every single day throughout this campaign. And Tom Suozzi campaigned on that hard at the end, that he was for that compromise, Mazi Pilip was against it.”
SOLOMON: “You know, it’s interesting, Alice Stewart, a Republican strategist, told us earlier, look, a win is a win, right? Even if it was in this district, even if there were all of these factors at play, Biden wasn’t really on the ballot, Trump wasn’t really on the ballot. When we hear from Johnson in just a few moments, presumably, he will say, ‘Look, it’s not that big of a deal,’ but walk us through sort of how instrumental last night really was.”
CHALIAN: “Well, you know, I think we had the reporting earlier that behind closed doors to his conference members this morning, Speaker Johnson was trying to say, ‘Don’t freak out about this, this one win.’ But here’s the reality. You showed the balance of power, okay? There are three more vacancies in the House right now. They’re pretty reliably partisan districts. So, when that’s all said and done, Democrats are only going to be four seats away from the majority come this November. Speaker Johnson can try to calm all the waters he wants. That is a really attainable goal for Democrats.”
BERMAN: “So, some of the things you’re already hearing are Republicans saying, and Donald Trump saying, ‘You know, she ran away from me, she needs to be — you know, candidates need to be more MAGA.’ On the other hand, you have people saying, ‘No, no, no, no, you need candidates that better fit the district here.’ There’s a real feud internally. I do wonder which one will prevail.”
CHALIAN: “I mean, I think we’ll see it play out differently in different races. In other words, I don’t think Mike Lawler in his race in New York is going to become a more extreme MAGA candidate that, you know, I think — and whether or not Donald Trump chides him for that or not will be a thing that we see going forward, John. But I wasn’t terribly surprised. I mean, besides Trump’s ego, putting that out, in a statement last night, but it kind of confirms his whole theory of the case for his campaign. It’s not about trying to persuade the middle to come back to him. It’s much more about bringing new MAGA fans into the process, expand the electorate. That’s how the Trump folks really see their path to victory.”
BERMAN: “He may have to teach them how to vote early, but that’s a whole separate matter.”
CHALIAN: “Yes, it’s a separate matter.”
BERMAN: “David Chalian, great to see you. Thank you very much.”