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Why Putin Does NOT Attack?
Many reports suggest that after the failed summer Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023, the Ukrainian army is in a dire state. They have lost most of their best and trained men and they are running out of equipment and ammunition as US aid has shifted to Israel given the October 7th Hamas attack. Although Ukraine has done a full mobilisation, a US Think Tank, Jamestown.org estimates that Ukraine's population has dropped to a mere 20 million and they have already been able to mobilise about 2 million men, which represents about 10% of their population. This is considered to be a critical threshold, which could risk collapse of the Ukrainian State. Russia on the other hand has an ever increasing army. Reports say their army gets 1500 volunteers per day and has surpassed a force of 700,000 in an around the special military operation zone in ukraine. Russia has now built an extensive defensive line that runs from Kherson all the way to Belarus and has several layers in Zaporizhia, which is the only avenue for Ukraine to sever the land bridge and isolate Crimea. Ukraine has long stated that their military goals is to achieve pre-1991 borders which means pushing Russia out of the land bridge and Crimea completely. The fact that they now admit they have to go on the defensive due to ammunition shortages means they've conceded they've lost the war as they can no longer achieve their military goals. In these circumstances, Putin has won. He will protect the Donbas, keep Ukraine out of NATO and is in the process of demilitarising the Ukrainian State. So it makes sense for him to stay put safely behind his defence line and inflict massive damage on Ukraine via long range strikes. Attempting a big arrow offensive would only occasion heavy casualties on Russia when it is not needed. The other reason a massive attack isn't necessary for Russia is because, for Putin, this war is beyond Ukraine. Given the debacle in Gaza where Israel is in an un-winnable war and the US now has to divert billions to support another un-winnable war like Ukraine. And given the Houthis attacks on all ships except Russian and Chinese ships in the strait, it is clear that world war 3 is an economic war and the plan is to bankrupt US and NATO. So it is perhaps wise that Putin keeps the West pinned in Ukraine and drag out their economic suffering until hey surrender or collapse.
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