Putin's Response to American Tanks could cause $150 dollar OiL

Moscow has repeatedly warned that the export of tanks from the West to Ukraine would amount to an escalation of the war. In today's video I give my thoughts on Putin's next move that could cause oil to hit levels we've never seen before.

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In its latest forecast, the IEA has projected demand to rise by 1.9 million barrels per day to 101.7 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, an upgrade from its previous forecast for a 1.7 million bpd increase

The IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) forecast shows supply outstripping demand by nearly one million bpd in the current quarter and in the second quarter again marginally, before a flip. Demand in the third and fourth quarters will be 1.6 million bpd and 2.4 million bpd, respectively, above supply, it said. The IEA cautioned that the timing and pace of a Chinese demand recovery and of Russian supply resilience will affect its forecasts.

The IEA called Russia a wild card, noting that production merely dipped in December when the EU import ban and G7-led price cap came into force. But it said this will change after the EU bans imports of Russian refined products in early February, when Moscow’s apparent move to increase refinery throughput and store significant amounts of oil will be challenged.

The IEA forecasts that around 1.6 million bpd of Russian production will be shut in by the end of the first quarter, compared with pre-war levels, and this will reduce output to 9.7 million bpd in 2023, down by 1.3 million bpd from 2022.

Goldman Sachs sees oil prices heading to $100 a barrel by the third quarter of 2023 amid China reopening

Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to jump to $100 a barrel by the third quarter of 2023.
The bank said China's reopening was likely to add 1.6 million barrels a day in demand to the market.
Goldman's Nikhil Bhandari said supply was unlikely to keep up after underinvestment in recent years.

Oil prices rose about 2% on Thursday on expectations that global demand will strengthen as top oil importer China reopens its economy and on positive U.S. economic data.

The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter

"Crude prices got an unexpected boost from a U.S. economy that doesn’t want to break," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at data and analytics firm OANDA.

Oil Traders Betting Fed Can Produce ‘Soft-Landing’

With some investors saying the economic data suggests there is more resilience in the economy than is being talked about, some are already calling it a “goldilocks situation.”

In other words, investors see the economy as decelerating, but not falling off a cliff as many had anticipated just weeks ago.

What this means is that investors now feel the Fed may be able to pull off a ‘soft-landing’ if there is a recession. We feel that oil prices can surge if the fear of recession is dampened or eliminated.

French bank BNP Paribas has made a commitment to reduce lending to the oil and gas industry by 80 percent by 2030 as part of entering a new phase in its decarbonization efforts.

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