The Hidden Agenda: Why They Want You to Hate Oil
Description:
In this video, I expose the hidden agendas and market manipulation shaping the global oil industry. Learn why:
Critical statements from past presidents about our oil dependence are almost impossible to find today.
Obama’s 2008 warning about oil scarcity was quickly buried as the push for green energy took over.
Global powerhouses like BlackRock and Vanguard keep oil prices artificially low to protect their broader investments.
The BRICS nations are rising to challenge Western dominance by taking control of oil pricing.
Middle Eastern conflicts are heating up while media outlets avoid discussing how oil security is central to it all.
The narrative shift from “oil as national security” to “oil as a villain” is driven by financial interests—not environmental concern.
The truth behind the oil industry is more complex and sinister than what’s presented to us. Dive in and see how the real game is played.
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00:00 - The Rigged System: Why Honest Discussions About Oil Get Censored
00:03 - Censored? Why Key Oil Statements Have Disappeared
00:09 - Obama’s Hidden Warning: “Not Enough Oil to Sustain the World”
00:29 - The Real Reason They’re Pushing Green Energy So Hard
00:42 - Big Finance’s Dirty Secret: How They Keep Oil Prices Down
01:00 - Why BRICS Nations Are Breaking Free from Western Oil Control
01:24 - The Middle East Conflict: How Oil Security is Driving War
01:44 - From National Security to Villain: The Fall of Oil in Public Perception
02:33 - Why Suppressing Oil Prices Is More Important Than the Truth
03:00 - How Big Corporations Control and Manipulate Global Oil Prices
04:18 - The Data Game: Who Really Knows the Truth About Oil Supply?
05:05 - The Rising Demand for Oil in BRICS Nations and What It Means for the West
05:48 - BRICS’ Plan to Control Global Oil Prices and Challenge the West
07:10 - Media Blackout: Why the West Ignores Middle Eastern Oil Power
08:02 - The Financial Giants Behind the Oil Market Manipulation
09:07 - The Hidden Forces Suppressing Oil Price Surges
10:27 - What You Didn’t Know About Historical Presidential Oil Statements
11:30 - Why the Left Vilifies Oil and Pushes Green Energy Narratives
12:25 - The BRICS Strategy: How They’re Planning to Set Their Own Oil Prices
13:45 - The Global Energy Crisis: Who Really Stands to Benefit?
14:42 - What’s Next? Oil Prices and Global Conflicts on the Horizon
#peakoil #oilprices
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Scott Sheffield says It's not our job to increase Oil Production 😂
CNBC’s Brian Sullivan talks with Scott Sheffield, Pioneer Natural Resources CEO, during 'The Exchange,' where they discuss a new era in energy and Sheffield's outlook for oil.
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#oilprices #oilnews #opec
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Oil Price Spike In 2024 As Spare Capacity Runs Thin
Events in China, not Russia, drove oil prices this past year, and now that Chinese manufacturing activity is on the upswing, the next 12-18 months are likely to see another spike in oil prices, says Goldman Sachs.
That could mean crude oil targeting prices above $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year.
The situation is “tighter” today, Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg Surveillance Early Edition on Wednesday.
The big event last year was not Russia. It was China.
“Global oil demand contracted 2% in the fourth quarter of last year, and that’s a recession in my book,” Currie said. That contraction, said Currie, created the spare capacity in oil and other commodities, but manufacturing data coming out of China this morning shows that is now reversing.
The Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) jumped to 52.6 in February from 50.1 in January, data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday. The surge in factory activity was the fastest in over a decade. Additionally, the index for non-manufacturing sectors also jumped, signaling an overall expansion of the Chinese economy in February. Altogether, it signals the potential for a faster-than-expected rebound after the reopening from the ‘zero-Covid’ policies abandoned by Beijing just at the end of 2022.
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#oilprices #oilnews #opec
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$100 Dollar Oil By Year End - Exclusive: Russia plans deep March oil export cuts, sources say
Pioneer CEO Sees $100 Oil By End Of Year
Brent crude oil will be around $100 per barrel by the end of the year, Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield has predicted.
Oil has been rangebound over the last five or six months, Sheffield said, although Chinese demand is picking up
"significantly".
"I think that what we'll see…. Brent will break $90 this summer and climb back up to $100 sometime in the second half of the year." He expects WTI to be in the low $90s by the end of the year.
Despite the calls for $100 oil, Pioneer's CEO reiterated that capital discipline is still the name of the game, adding that its shareholders haven't changed their view on that. "We see no change at all," Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield told Bloomberg today.
Exclusive: Russia plans deep March oil export cuts, sources say
Russia plans to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March versus February, exceeding its announced production cuts in a bid to lift prices for its oil, three sources in the Russian oil market said.
Russia had already announced plans to cut its oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March, amounting to 5% of its output or 0.5% of global production.
U.S. treasury officials have said the Russian decision to cut oil production reflects its inability to sell all its oil.
Washington has said it pushed for the introduction of price caps to limit revenues for President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine but have set them high enough to avoid a further spike in global oil prices.
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#oilprices #oilnews #opec
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Putin's Response to American Tanks could cause $150 dollar OiL
Moscow has repeatedly warned that the export of tanks from the West to Ukraine would amount to an escalation of the war. In today's video I give my thoughts on Putin's next move that could cause oil to hit levels we've never seen before.
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In its latest forecast, the IEA has projected demand to rise by 1.9 million barrels per day to 101.7 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, an upgrade from its previous forecast for a 1.7 million bpd increase
The IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) forecast shows supply outstripping demand by nearly one million bpd in the current quarter and in the second quarter again marginally, before a flip. Demand in the third and fourth quarters will be 1.6 million bpd and 2.4 million bpd, respectively, above supply, it said. The IEA cautioned that the timing and pace of a Chinese demand recovery and of Russian supply resilience will affect its forecasts.
The IEA called Russia a wild card, noting that production merely dipped in December when the EU import ban and G7-led price cap came into force. But it said this will change after the EU bans imports of Russian refined products in early February, when Moscow’s apparent move to increase refinery throughput and store significant amounts of oil will be challenged.
The IEA forecasts that around 1.6 million bpd of Russian production will be shut in by the end of the first quarter, compared with pre-war levels, and this will reduce output to 9.7 million bpd in 2023, down by 1.3 million bpd from 2022.
Goldman Sachs sees oil prices heading to $100 a barrel by the third quarter of 2023 amid China reopening
Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to jump to $100 a barrel by the third quarter of 2023.
The bank said China's reopening was likely to add 1.6 million barrels a day in demand to the market.
Goldman's Nikhil Bhandari said supply was unlikely to keep up after underinvestment in recent years.
Oil prices rose about 2% on Thursday on expectations that global demand will strengthen as top oil importer China reopens its economy and on positive U.S. economic data.
The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter
"Crude prices got an unexpected boost from a U.S. economy that doesn’t want to break," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at data and analytics firm OANDA.
Oil Traders Betting Fed Can Produce ‘Soft-Landing’
With some investors saying the economic data suggests there is more resilience in the economy than is being talked about, some are already calling it a “goldilocks situation.”
In other words, investors see the economy as decelerating, but not falling off a cliff as many had anticipated just weeks ago.
What this means is that investors now feel the Fed may be able to pull off a ‘soft-landing’ if there is a recession. We feel that oil prices can surge if the fear of recession is dampened or eliminated.
French bank BNP Paribas has made a commitment to reduce lending to the oil and gas industry by 80 percent by 2030 as part of entering a new phase in its decarbonization efforts.
#oilprices #oilnews #opec
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Bullish on Oil if you see what's coming! Saudi Arabia plan to join BRICS unfolding.
Saudi Arabia's plans are coming to light as meetings with the heads of BRICS increase. African Prime Minister tells the world Saudi Arabia has every intention on Joining BRICS.
If the Biden Administration does not retaliate to OPEC+ for undermining the elections and causing higher energy prices for the world it's only going to multiply the efforts of middle easter powers to break off the American system.
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sean.pruitt@kingdomexploration.com
#oilnews #oilanalysis #opec+ #oil #oilandgas #seanpruitt #kingdomexploration
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The decoupling of US & Saudi Arabian ties will send oil prices sky high.
The decoupling of US & Saudi Arabian ties would put an end to cheap abundant energy. We've been buying middle east oil for years as America is the only country that can just print money and trade for oil as Oil is pegged to USD.
We played into the hands of Russia by turning up the heat on the Saudis and the 2 million BOPD cut tells how the new admin is with foreign relations.
This middle east disconnect has set the ground floor for $80+ oil. We might see short weeks of $65 in the event of major economic decline but not for long as OPEC+ are in the drivers seat due to lack of spare capacity thanks to the US American Shale decline!
Now, OPEC+ is in position to have the capability to cut America from OIL which would then cause WTI Oil Prices to hit levels we've never seen while the rest of the world pays less.
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Shale Oil Article : https://ieefa.org/articles/ieefa-update-fracking-companies-2019-performance-signals-ongoing-crisis
#oil #oilnews #opec #peakoil #kingdomexploration #oilandgas #oilprices #seanpruitt
00:00 Introduction
00:34 How have Oil Analyst Got it So Wrong?
02:07 Oil Price Prediction : Saudi Broken Ties set the floor for $80+ Oil
03:41 OPEC+ has been put in control of oil prices!
04:47 Why is Shale Fracking un-reliable for our future energy needs?
06:41 Saudi Arabia is breaking Ties with America
09:22 American Oil & Gas is being destroyed due to 3 reasons. Laws, Rhetoric & Shale Oil low profits.
11:42 The Decoupling of US & Saudi Arabia will cause oil prices to remain high!
13:06 Biden has to make an example of Saudi Arabia in order to please his base
13:55 WTI Local Oil Prices will be higher than BRENT CRUDE % Others
14:10 PETRO Dollar is being reduced as Saudi Pulls Away
15:08 If US cuts off Weapon sales to Saudi's, They will strengthen their ties with China, Russia BRICS SCO
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OPEC+ Cut ends American US Saudi Arabian Relations. Houthi Rebels Threaten to Bomb Saudi Oil!
The OPEC+ Cartel has gone to war with the West causing oil prices to be upward charged and increased the instability in the middle east as American Saudi relations die.
The Biden Administration along with mainstream media has connected the OPEC+ cartel as a Russian puppet. The worst thing you can do is demonize the very organization that can pull us out of a recession by reducing energy prices. Talking about cutting off the hand that feeds you!
Once Biden knew Saudi's were not going to help the left in the midterms the gloves came off and this OPEC+ 2M BOPD CUT was the straw that broke the camels back!
One of the many examples of America turning their back on their former Saudi allies is they failed to broker the peace talks between Saudis, Yemen & Iran causing the peace treaty to end. Now the Houthi rebels are increasing their war efforts and threatening Saudi Arabian Oil and Gas fields.
What is to come makes Nord Stream seem like a walk in Disney Land... Well, maybe Disney is not the best comparison anymore :)
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* Ironic and admin that has tried to suppress and lower their production is upset that another country would lower theirs
* It is all about getting gas prices down before mid-term elections next month
* Releasing the most SPR reserves in history - drawn down by 1/2 - it's only for emergency - threatening the stability of the Salt Caverns if you keep producing
* Spare capacity - EU oil embargo begins Dec 5th -
* IRAN Nuke deal is dead
* It's now time for oil prices to reflect fundamentals
* Oil inventories have dropped 130M BO despite SPR release and China Covid Zero policies - without those factored we would 300M BO Inventory Drop
* Oil Demand Loss due to Recession will be offset by China emerging out of Covid Lockdowns - fuel switching : record amounts of oil will be used vs nat gas for power - 700k - 1 m BOPD demand increase.
* Great Financial crisis demand dropped by 2% today that's 2 million BO - just china emerging from lockdowns and fuel switching will negate 75% of that
#opec #oilnews #peakoil
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Oil News - China, Putin, Saudi, Iran Plan to Sanction America with Oil!
We’re witnessing one of the largest pump and dump schemes the world has ever seen.
Green energy is a classic case as it has all the ingredients of a pump and dump scheme.
According to the SEC :
In a pump and dump scheme, fraudsters typically spread false or misleading information to create a buying frenzy that will “pump” up the price of a stock and then “dump” shares of the stock by selling their own shares at the inflated price. Once the fraudsters dump their shares and stop hyping the stock, the stock price typically falls and investors lose money.
False or misleading information about a company’s stock price may be spread through sources including social media, investment research websites, investment newsletters, online advertisements, email, Internet chat rooms, direct mail, newspapers, magazines, and radio.
For example, China not only is pushing the green energy lies but financially benefiting the most as they sale green technology to the world and own some of the largest cobalt mines in Africa! All the while China buys record amounts of oil and continues to build coal powered plants.
China, Russia, Iran and the rest of the world is tired of the western sanctions especially the power of the American rule. The war in Ukraine is all about Putin trying to remove the grips of western powers. Imagine being sanctioned by China every time you did something they disagree with!
This is the why for the alliances forming with SCO and BRICS. If China can get Putin, Iran, Saudi Arabia etc to side with him they can sanction America from oil!
A western world without OPEC+ oil, is a very expensive reality we can’t survive. WTI oil price would be $200+ while the rest of the world is paying $80 for brent crude.
We’re playing into their hands by jumping from Oil to Green
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Oil Price News - Oil prices are headed to $150 a barrel
JPMorgan's Malek Still Sees Oil at $150
• We can’t just rely on Saudi Oil
• Oil capex has never been so low
• Structural Deficit
• 107-110 MBO By 2030 – in 8 years –
• When China comes out of lockdowns
• Nat Gas to oil conversation
SCO summit
• China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia forming and anti-western alliance.
Watch CNBC's full interview with India's Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri
India's Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri told CNBC's Hadley Gamble his country will carefully assess whether to support a G-7 proposal to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil. “There are many conversations going on due to a large number of factors,” Puri said at Gastech 2022 in Milan, Italy.
• Oil Demand is higher than supply
• Energy today is the lifeline of the economy
• For the next 2 decades we see India oil demand going to over 9 million BOPD
'Which Uses More Electricity...A Refrigerator When It's Running Or Electric Car When It's Charging?'
• At today's House Transportation Committee hearing, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) questioned Sec. Pete Buttigieg.
• Electric car uses 50 X more energy than a running refrigerator
• Do you think it would strain the grid if all Americans plugged in 25 refrigerators
• The average household uses 17% of electricity for air conditioning. It would take 4 x more energy than what is used by air conditioning.
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00:00 Introduction
02:00 JPMorgan's Malek Still Sees Oil at $150
07:07 Watch CNBC's full interview with India's Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri
09:53 Which Uses More Electricity...A Refrigerator When It's Running Or Electric Car When It's Charging?
16:57 • China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia forming and anti-western alliance.
26:27 Sri Lanka Green Energy Demise
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Saudi Crown Prince is planning to undermine the Oil Markets | Xi Jingping meeting MBS
Xi meeting with MBS sends the signal that he's prepping for war with Taiwan and ending lockdowns in China. China can't afford to do this without oil security and who better to meet with before making bold move than the Oil Prince himself.
The Saudi Crown Prince plans to undermined everything Joe Biden has done to the Oil Markets by simple cutting production. What better way at getting back at Biden for all of the verbal attacks against him and the oil industry than to cause oil prices to spike during an election. Joe Biden and the democrat party is heavily weight on where energy prices go from here and MBS single handedly has the power to choose who remains in US power.
The BRICS Group is recruiting rich oil countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE with plans to control and dominate the oil markets.
00:00 Introduction
02:33 OPEC President Backs Oil Output Cut
04:00 $150 Price Prediction by Paul Sankey Oil Analyst
05:22 Fundamentally Oil Price should be $135 Barrell
07:11 Green Technology Can't Reduce Oil Demand
08:01 BRICS Alliance is to Control Oil
13:14 Petro Dollar is being replaced by BRICS Group
19:41 Xi Jingping meeting MBS for Oil Security. Why?
22:08 Saudi Arabia is turning back on US undermining the Oil Markets by curbing production
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Peak Oil! OPEC+ and US Shale Oil Production is on the Decline!
OPEC does not have the additional spare capacity to lift crude oil production much more than it is doing today
Many OPEC producers, including Nigeria, are currently pumping at the peak of their capacities
OPEC raised its oil production by just 57,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March from February, as African members’ struggles to pump more crude partially offset increases at the core OPEC members of the Middle East.
Russia Sees Steepest Oil Production Decline Since May 2020 In Early April
U.S. Congress Bans Imports Of Russian Crude Oil
U.S. Shakes Finger At India For Russian Oil Imports
Major Oil Traders Cut Russian Crude Purchases Starting Next Month
Replacing Russian crude oil lost by a possible ban from the EU would be nearly impossible, OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said today
We could potentially see the loss of more than 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil and other liquids exports, resulting from current and future sanctions or other voluntary actions. Considering the current demand outlook, it would be nearly impossible to replace a loss in volumes of this magnitude," the Secretary General said.
Russia Threatens Nukes in Baltic if Sweden, Finland Join NATO
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Where are Oil Prices Going? | Oil market heads for ‘biggest supply crisis in decades!
Without a Major increase in Oil Development we are heading for a supply crisis. If we lose 3 million BOPD from Putin and don't start drilling like the days of early 2000 we are in for a OIL SUPPLY SHORTAGE!
Think about it. USA was producing 13 Million a day with a demand of 99.7 million. What do you think is going to happen with the same demand producing 2 million less? Now add Russian oil sanctions, oil under investment and world oil fields on the decline.
It's a recipe for a disaster.
Biden promised he would reduce oil development and focus on Green Tech. I admire the save the world attitude but why hasn't the demand for oil dropped?
Green tech can't replace oil no matter how immoral you say it is. Without Oil the world stops! Plastic is one of many biproducts for oil and plastic demand has skyrocketed thanks to Amazon!
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Oil News | We're not producing enough oil | Crude Production Deficit
Oil prices scale $85/bbl on back of supply deficit
Oil prices jumped to a three-year high above $85 a barrel on Friday, on forecasts of a supply deficit over the next few months, spurred by rising demand due to the easing of travel restrictions.
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Demand has picked up with the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, with a further boost from power generators who have been turning away from expensive gas and coal to fuel oil and diesel.
The White House said it will lift COVID-19 travel restrictions for fully vaccinated foreign nationals effective Nov. 8, which should boost jet fuel demand. read more
Meanwhile, a sharp drop in OECD and U.S. oil stockpiles is expected to keep global supply tight.
"It will take a trifecta of events to derail this oil price rally: OPEC+ unexpectedly boosts output, warm weather hits the northern hemisphere, and if the Biden administration taps the strategic petroleum reserves," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
The International Energy Agency on Thursday said the energy crunch is expected to boost oil demand by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd).
That would result in a supply gap of around 700,000 bpd through the end of this year, until the Organization of the Petroleum Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, add more supply, as planned in January.
Oil and natural gas prices have soared to multi-year highs recently, sending power prices surging to record levels as widespread energy shortages hit Asia and Europe.
"Record coal and gas prices as well as rolling blackouts are prompting the power sector and energy-intensive industries to turn to oil to keep the lights on and operations humming," the IEA said in its monthly oil report.
As a result, global oil demand next year is now projected to recover to pre-pandemic levels, the Paris-based agency said.
It made upward revisions to its demand forecasts for this year by 170,000 bpd, or a total addition of 5.5 million for the year, and by 210,000 bpd in 2022, or a total addition of 3.3 million.
An upsurge in demand in the past quarter led to the biggest draw on oil products stocks in eight years, it said, while storage levels in OECD countries were at their lowest since early 2015.
"Provisional August data already indicates that there is some unseasonably high demand for fuel oil, crude and middle distillates for power plants across a number of countries, including China, Japan and Pakistan in Asia, Germany and France in Europe and Brazil," the IEA said.
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Oil Prices May 2021 - Get Ready for a massive Oil Production Decline!
Shale oil and gas was the Worlds Saving Grace for $150 oil. If you recall during the Bush and Obama Days we had $130+ oil simply because we did not produce enough. Shale came to the rescue starting in 2012 but one once Banks found shale to be a bad investment the industry came to a screeching halt. Shale today still continues to keep oil prices low but what happens if we don't continue to invest in oil especially since Shale Oil Decline curve is steep compared to Conventional Oil.
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Oil Prices - While OPEC ramps up production, U.S. oil output is projected to fall
U.S. oil output is set to reach 11.04 million barrels day this year, down from last month’s forecast at 11.15 million after a deep freeze in February that shutdown the oil industry in Texas, according to U.S. government data. The Energy Information Administration also lowered its output forecast for 2022 by 100,000 barrels a day.
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The lower output forecast comes as Wall Street has grown reluctant to fund growth while shale operators are focused on increasing cash flow and return to investors rather than adding production. With the U.S. unlikely to return to previous output levels, OPEC+ is moving to roll back part of their supply cuts in the coming months.
“It would be very hard for the US oil and gas industry to get back to over 13 million barrels a day. I don’t think that’s going to happen,” Occidental Petroleum Corp. Chief Executive Officer Vicki Hollub said at a conference Tuesday. “Too much investment would be required,” she said, reiterating her view that U.S. has past peak oil production.
The OPEC+ decision expressed growing confidence in the economic recovery and higher oil prices. In the past four months, benchmark U.S. crude oil prices have gained over 36%.
Even though the EIA is lowered its forecast, production will likely expand modestly from current levels. American explorers are still moving to add supply, last week they to add the most rigs in more than a year. Still, the oil rig count stands at about half of what it was when the pandemic began.
With the U.S. unlikely to return supply to pre-pandemic levels, some market observers don’t expect global crude supplies to grow fast enough to satisfy demand as vaccinations proliferate and economies reopen.
Oil supply is proving to be “mostly inelastic” in the very near-term, as shown by the lack of production growth after Saudi Arabia’s cut prices rallied this year, Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview last week.
OPEC Is Betting Big On Robust Oil Demand Recovery
Most analysts continue to believe that the market will be able to absorb the new barrels from OPEC+ with strengthening demand going into the summer months. Goldman Sachs, for example, is still bullish on oil and anticipates strong demand that would require OPEC+ putting another 2 million bpd on the market in the third quarter, after the around 2 million bpd that the alliance and Saudi Arabia decided to return between May and July.
Climate change: Net zero targets are 'pie in the sky'
India lambasted the richer world's carbon cutting plans, calling long term net zero targets, "pie in the sky."
India, the world's fourth largest emitter, doesn't seem keen to join the club.
"2060 sounds good, but it is just that, it sounds good," Raj Kumar Singh, India's minister for power, told a meeting organised by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
"I would call it, and I'm sorry to say this, but it is just a pie in the sky."
Their energy minister said poor nations want to continue using fossil fuels and the rich countries "can't stop it".
Saudi Arabia’s scramble for an exit strategy in Yemen
The Saudi Arabia-led alliance’s military intervention in Yemen has not only failed in its objective to rout the Houthi rebels, but the kingdom finds itself in a position in which it might be forced to capitulate.
“The Houthis have proven to be a formidable fighting force. Saudi Arabia does not have a comparable ground game that can match their adversaries’,” Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver, told Al Jazeera.
This reality is far from what Saudi Arabia had initially anticipated when it entered into the war via Operation Decisive Storm in March 2015.
“Saudi Arabia thought it would win this war via a bombing campaign, and it would all be over in a few weeks. We have now entered the seventh year of this war with no clear end in sight,” Hashemi said.
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OIL SUPPLY CRUNCH COMING! - Oil Prices January
Can Anything Stop The Current Bull Run In Oil?
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures continued to move higher on Friday with last February’s high at $53.60 well within reach. Investors continue to look beyond rising coronavirus cases, instead choosing to focus on the prospect of lower supply after Saudi Arabia pledged to cut output in February and March. Also underpinning the crude oil market is this week’s reported drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles although one could argue that a spike in gasoline supply may have been offsetting news.
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The Pandemic Could Lead To A Major Oil Supply Crunch
It may be counterintuitive to say that the oil demand crash and the resulting glut in 2020 could lead to an oil supply crunch in just a few years.
Yet, a growing number of experts and international agencies warn that the world could be headed for an oil shortage when oil demand finally recovers from the COVID-inflicted crisis in late 2022 or 2023.
Last year, the pandemic slashed global oil demand, which is not expected to return to pre-crisis levels for at least another year and a half. But the coronavirus also accelerated a structural decline in upstream oil investments as all E&P firms. Oil supermajors, U.S. shale producers, and national oil companies alike slashed capital expenditures in the wake of the price crash.
Investments in new oil supply have now slumped to a more-than-a-decade low. If the industry doesn’t raise upstream investments in coming years, the oil market could be headed to a supply crunch after oil global demand recovers, analysts and forecasters warn.
But 2020 investments hit a new low.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expected that global investment in upstream oil and gas to crash 32 percent year over year to US$328 billion in 2020, after three consecutive years of investment growth. The expected rate of decline in 2020 investment was larger than the 25-26 percent decline in the 2015-2016 period, while the value of 2020 investments was down by around 60 percent from the peak of US$779 billion in 2014. The decline in investment in 2020 already takes an estimated 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) away from anticipated oil supply in 2025, the IEA said. The IEA also warned that if investments were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million bpd.
Goldman Finds Unexpected Source Of Demand For 1 Million Bpd Of Oil
Having recently turned even more bullish on the oil market, bringing forward up its year-end $65 Brent price target to the summer on Monday, overnight Goldman's commodity team turned even more bullish on oil, "discovering" an unexpected source of oil demand in the near term, which could lead to even higher oil prices in coming days. Specifically, according to to Goldman's Damien Courvalin, global oil demand will be boosted by at least 1 million b/d in the coming weeks as cold weather spurs the use of diesel for power generation.
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