Inflection 18: What Would a US-China War Look Like?

The US is clearly preparing the battlefield for what US war planners call a limited conventional conflict with China confined to East Asia. What would such a war look like? Why wouldn’t China use its nuclear arsenal? Would the US seek to militarily defeat China? Or would there be another non-military objective the US sought to achieve?

***War Plans***

US Office of the Historian - Memo 189 (1965):
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v03/d189
RAND Corporation - War with China, Thinking Through the Unthinkable (2016):
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1100/RR1140/RAND_RR1140.pdf
SCMP - Explainer | US-China rivalry: who has the stronger military?:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3140681/us-china-rivalry-who-has-stronger-military
Compared military spending adjusted to PPP
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/05/01/nominal-spending-figures-understate-chinas-military-might
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/03/chinas-defense-spending-larger-it-looks/164060/

60 Minutes Australia - War with China: Are we closer than we think? | Under Investigation:
https://youtu.be/kA2KaEKs1LA

***Missiles & Straits***

Radio Free Asia - U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Proposes New Missile Capabilities to Deter China:
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/usa-missiles-03052021180700.html
Defense News - Here’s the US Marine Corps’ plan for sinking Chinese ships with drone missile launchers:
https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/02/12/heres-the-us-marine-corps-plan-for-sinking-chinese-ships-with-drone-missile-launchers/
Modern Diplomacy - The Strait of Malacca: China between Singapore and the United States:
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/11/24/the-strait-of-malacca-china-between-singapore-and-the-united-states/
Forbes - Could The Indian Navy Strangle China’s Lifeline In The Malacca Strait?:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/07/08/could-the-indian-navy-strangle-chinas-lifeline-in-the-malacca-strait/?sh=336601a978e8

***Nukes***

Forbes - There’s No Chance China Will Out-Nuke The United States:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/03/10/theres-no-chance-china-will-out-nuke-the-united-states/?sh=35d68f67eb27
BBC - Turkey's downing of Russian warplane - what we know:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581

***Airlift Capability***

Business Insider - China's air force has big plans for its biggest planes:
https://www.defensenews.com/training-sim/2021/04/12/a-us-air-force-war-game-shows-what-the-service-needs-to-hold-off-or-win-against-china-in-2030/
Aviation Week - China Leading Strategic Airlift Fleet Expansion:
https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/china-leading-strategic-airlift-fleet-expansion

***Asymmetrical War***

*ETIM*

Newsweek - Exclusive: Despite China's Pressure on Taliban, Uyghur Separatists See Opportunity in Afghanistan:
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-despite-chinas-pressure-taliban-uighur-separatists-see-opportunity-afghanistan-1627650?amp=1&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
United Nations Security Council - ETIM:
https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/1267/aq_sanctions_list/summaries/entity/eastern-turkistan-islamic-movement
NED - XINJIANG / EAST TURKESTAN (CHINA) 2020:
https://www.ned.org/region/asia/xinjiang-east-turkestan-china-2020/
Uyghur Human Rights Project - About:
https://uhrp.org/about/
World Uyghur Congress - About:
https://www.uyghurcongress.org/en/introducing-the-world-uyghur-congress/

*Baluchistan Separatists*

Al Jazeera - At least two killed in suicide bombing in southwest Pakistan:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/20/at-least-two-killed-in-suicide-bombing-in-southwest-pakistan
Guardian - Protests in Pakistan erupt against China’s belt and road plan:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/20/water-protests-in-pakistan-erupt-against-chinas-belt-and-road-plan
National Interest - Free Baluchistan:
https://nationalinterest.org/commentary/free-baluchistan-4799
GovTrack - H.Con.Res. 104 (112th): Expressing the sense of Congress that the people of Baluchistan, currently divided between Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan, have the right to self-determination and to their own sovereign country:
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/hconres104/summary
US House of Representatives Hearing - Baluchistan (2012):
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-112hhrg72791/html/CHRG-112hhrg72791.htm

*Myanmar Crisis*

The Irrawaddy - Deadly Attack on Pipeline Station Spotlights China’s High Stakes in Myanmar:
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/attack-oil-and-gas-pipelines-china-off-take-station-spotlight-stakes-junta-regime-protect-protesters-arson-attack-strategic-investment-unsc-support.html

*Milk Tea Alliance*

Milk Tea Alliance: Twitter creates emoji for pro-democracy activists:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56676144