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Why Russia’s war in Ukraine could lead to millions going hungry
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means the food inflation that’s been plaguing global consumers is now tipping into a full-blown crisis, potentially outstripping even the pandemic’s blow and pushing millions further into hunger.
Together, Russia and Ukraine account for a huge portion of the world’s agricultural supplies, exporting so much wheat, corn, sunflower oil and other foods that it adds up to more than a tenth of all calories traded globally. Now, shipments from both countries have virtually dried up.
Commodity markets are soaring — wheat is up about 50% in two weeks and corn just touched a decade high. The surging costs could end up weighing on currencies in emerging markets, where food represents a bigger share of consumer-price baskets. And analysts are predicting export flows would continue to be disrupted for months even if the war were to end tomorrow.
The crisis extends beyond just the impact of grain exports (critical as they are). Russia is also a key supplier for fertilizers. Virtually every major crop in the world depends on inputs like potash and nitrogen. Without a steady stream, farmers will have a harder time growing everything from coffee to rice and soybeans.
Plainly speaking, there are few other places on the planet where a conflict like this could create such a devastating blow to ensuring that food supplies stay plentiful and affordable. It’s why Russia and Ukraine are known as the breadbaskets of the world.
The world has grown hugely dependent on Ukraine and Russia for their wheat, a crop used in everything from bread to couscous and noodles. The nations account for a quarter of global trade.
They are also cheap suppliers, which makes their exports favorites for importers in the Middle East and North Africa — including in Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat buyer. Benchmark wheat futures traded in Chicago reached a record-high price Tuesday.
original link from World Economic Forum
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