Dalek News 17 MAR 2022

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For the current Ukrainian conflict, the darleks offer the following analysis. First the involved parties are defined, and the possible positive, neutral and negative outcomes are suggested. This is the fundamental of any interaction.

First who are the most directly involved?
We suggest the principal actors, from the most to the least involved are. Along with the significance of the crisis and how it can affect the actor involved. It must be pointed out that the miss-calculation of the actors involved could significantly deepen the influence of the crisis on themselves.
War and peace is a relative business. If one side takes a great loss, and can survive it, its position may be enhanced relative to an adversary who in taking a loss, finds its previous position irrecoverable.
As an extreme example, this is a fundamental point in global thermonuclear war. Certainly losses will occur. And what if you are the only one left with global reach? What if the world belongs to you? Daleks fought a millennium long war against the Thaals. As dalek MacArthur put it, there is no substitute for victory.

The players, for whom are given the Olympic rings of power.

Russia, for whom the crisis is one of existence, economics and political survival.
The USA, whose international influence and international and domestic economics and politics are at stake.
The EU, who must retain energy and economic stability and political influence.
China, for whom International political influence and good will are important.
And last of all, the hobbits of India, that seek International significant or relevance and second breakfast.

Now, what are the outcomes of the crisis for the involved parities? The possible outcomes determines the level of importance and involvement of the actor in the crisis. If neither anything positive nor negative can occur, that the strategy is less significant. If the existence of the involved party is fundamentally questioned, then it must calculate very carefully.

For the five parties involved, the best action and outcome, the Neutral and the Worst are:

Russia: Negotiates peace, is reinstated in the swift system and economic world trade. The international community realizes and acknowledges the reasons in the Donbass and the Crimea for its expedition.

A neutral outcome could be that peace is negotiated, Russia remains a pariah for a few years, with Putin struggling on, or stepping down.

The worst case is that Russia bleeds in Ukraine, bleeds economically and bleeds politically. Its carcass is fed upon in the west and in the east, with Baltic countries seeking closer NATO and EU involvement, and envious eyes cast upon the Yakutia regions of Siberia. Politically it is a new South America, Argentina after the Falkland’s war, Britain after the Suez Crisis, or North Korea.

For the USA, the positive outcome is Hurrah for Biden’s Mediation in actively negotiating a sentence too unbelievable to finish. Gandalf Biden commands the Putin Belrog shall pass.
A middle road policy of non-intervention may assure the price of Uncle Joes Ice cream does not inflate too much, and energy markets are realigned.
A failure is for no one to return our calls, everyone else is blamed, only fascists want free speech. Trump and white supremacists cause all the problems. The international dollar reserve is in doubt, energy markets and oil become far more liquid. Middle earth shifts and realigns itself, as much that was known is now forgotten.

For EU, a positive outcome would be for Russia to supply energy to the EU on the EU’s terms. Russia behaves itself and the EU is seen to be important.
Alternatively, the EU survives and is relevant in the world.
Finally, if the Mafia ran Costco, you’d get the EU. And the Ukraine was too corrupt to join the EU. Energy is uncertain. Rearmament for a while, until Greta Dooms-burg demands an electric tank. Still just the great big “ewe”. Orcs are seen in the East, the best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.

In China, the possibility beckons of a great negotiator, a friend that eases tensions, uncle Xi calms everyone down.
Or Gladriel sees in Xi one of the crowd that helps soothe the international tensions.
If the worst comes, it is stuck with Russia as a member of league of asshole countries and warned hands off Taiwan. The international community becomes convinced that China was involved, condoned and colluded with Russia.

In the sleepy shire, India reaffirms its upcoming importance as the home of the CEO of Twitter and it muddles through, Not a Mac, Not a PC, not even linux.
If there is doubt, it somehow finds itself in the role of the non-aligned again, not really trusted by anyone. Capital flow and the economy do not necessarily suffer, though they are not as attractive to investment or interest as they could be.

It is certain that every major government conducts some sort of analysis before a major policy is initiated. Whether the advice of the technocrats involved is listened too depends upon the personalities involved.

This analysis is simple, but not necessarily simplistic. Like a clinical trial or a statistical test it can be applied in other areas. Where the complication comes in is the multi-player interaction. For example one player may do well by doing nothing, or another may lose significantly and others may gain little, though the total power is radically redistributed.

For example, if teachers can groom students, who are the involved parties and what does a win or a loss look like for those involved?
If a news organization can report anything it wants, or restrict information to anything it produces, who is affected?

In any major situation ask yourself, who is involved, what are the outcomes, and how do they affect them? Usually in impractical nations, you take all the risk no matter what the outcome is.
Confucius dalek says: the darlek definition of a practical nation is simple. Are the good daleks in government and the bad ones in jail?

Comedy dalek says: darleks can’t bend over, so no-one sends them to jail.

Of course, we don't know what we don't know.
If Putin's action are designed to force Russia into a Eurasian Custom Union with a new continental currency for the transfer of oil and gas, the petrodollar may disappear.