Negative real risk-free interest rate implications
The real risk-free rate is flashing red. A bit of air is starting to come out of bubble stock & bond markets, given the sharp retreat in NASDAQ meme stocks and a persistent, albeit it still muted rise in the benchmark interest rate, the 10-year Treasury. We have ramping insanity, until recently exploding tyranny in OECD nations from Australia to Canada to America, rapidly rising inflation and debt, faltering productivity, terrible economic, financial, and social policy, unparalleled debt, the evisceration of constitutional fidelity and inalienable rights protections for citizens, an open US southern border, and growing geopolitical instability from the Ukraine to Taiwan. If we juxtapose all that against historically negative real risk-free interest rates of up to -13% if we assume a 15% rate of consumer inflation instead of 7.5%, we probably have the most disjointed valuation landscape in the history of recorded time. if we revert back to historical CPI rates that featured more representative consumption weights, no substitution, no fake housing costs, and no hedonics. The chart at the outset of this audio will allude to that. My audio ties into it and asset valuation implications.
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