Probabilistic PHM Analytics and Simulation Environment

Carl Byington of PHM Design and formerly Impact Technologies developed a Matlab/Simulink™ based Probabilistic Modeling and Analysis Toolbox (P-MAT) application that provides an intuitive and information-rich modeling environment for probabilistic reliability analysis with a powerful toolset consisting of Bayesian Update, Monte Carlo, 3rd party software integration and other modules. The USAF was provided prototype software that fully supports traditional probabilistic reliability analysis as well as uncertainty management via a multi-loop, iterative approach to Bayesian Updating in the presence of various forms of test data or other evidence types. While Simulink™ acts as the primary modeling and simulation environment for most analysis functions, file I/O, plotting, etc., P-MAT also has the capability to translate some model elements into efficient routines for computationally intensive processes or for integration with 3rd party open source applications as well as perform high level project management in a front-end interface. Impact ensured that P-MAT meets the USAF functional requirements and that it is robust and accurate by exercising it on turbine blade design problem or a specific USAF case study.