Markets Getting Smacked Today - A Blip or More To Come?
Listen, markets are at insane levels right now, this one down day or not. As a lifelong bull, it's hard to reconcile an overvalued market, but by all historical comparisons, examples, and experiences - stocks, cryptos, and housing are all defying gravity.
Does this mean I'm going to bail on my 401k or long-term investments? Absolutely not; however, I do think hedging at these levels isn't just a good idea, but absolutely necessary considering upside to downside, imo.
Here is my research or compilation of factors playing into my negative view of overall markets.
Income/Affordability
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc
Inflation
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/how-inflation-is-impacting-your-paycheck-according-to-economists.html
Household Debt
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BCNSDODNS
Business Debt
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BCNSDODNS
Markets Near All-Time Highs
https://www.investopedia.com/investing/use-pe-ratio-and-peg-to-tell-stocks-future/
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/11/08/is-the-market-still-overvalued
Stock Market Valuations
https://www.investopedia.com/investing/use-pe-ratio-and-peg-to-tell-stocks-future/
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/11/08/is-the-market-still-overvalued
Crypto Market Valuations
https://coinmarketcap.com/
Housing Market Valuations
https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/
Labor Market Participation
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/11/12/us-posts-near-record-104-million-job-openings-but-heres-why-more-americans-arent-looking-for-work/?sh=2bca70c3444b
National Debt
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
The Fed (Money Printing)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418733-gold-feds-shutting-down-money-supply-data-is-alarming
Fed Transparency
https://www.marketplace.org/2019/07/30/why-the-fed-decided-to-be-transparent/
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-promises-great-transparency-on-tapering-asset-purchases-11616673616
Supply Chain Issues
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418733-gold-feds-shutting-down-money-supply-data-is-alarming
Geopolitical Issues
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-22/china-boosts-ties-with-north-korea-russia-in-wake-of-u-s-talks
Aging Population
https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR1063-1.html
***Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes containing my personal opinions and approaches, this is not investment advice. All trades are made in my smaller accounts to accommodate reasonable expectations for beginning traders with smaller accounts.***
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