COVID 19, British surveillance report. Pure unadulterated figures.

COVID, The Vaccine, and pure unadulterated figures.

There is so much rubbish on the internet regarding COVID and the effectiveness of vaccines I though I would just do a comprehensive summary of the weekly British COVID 19 surveillance response. Given that their healthcare is nationalised they have very good figures on who gets COVID, who goes to hospital, and who dies.

They are up to week 48 since the start of the vaccination process and it is full of interesting data that we can get our teeth into. First off there is this interesting statistic: 98.1% of the adult population have immunity (measured by antibodies) to COVID of which 20.2% are immune from getting the infection alone. That natural immunity was received during the first wave and partially explains the lower COVID case rate in the unvaccinated within Britain.

The next interesting graph is this one. This shows the percentage of completing two doses of vaccine in different ages groups. It is evenly spread from about 57% of 18yr olds to 95% of over 80 year olds. Britain are also heavily pumping the 12 to 16 group with 40% of that group having the first dose of the vaccine.

Now this is the money slide. All rates are per 100,000 people. The first interesting thing about this is that between the ages of 30 to 69 the rate of COVID infections seem to be higher in the vaccinated (column one) when compared to the unvaccinated (column two)…. in the age group 40-49 it is twice the rate of the unvaccinated. This has led to all kinds of theories that the vaccine reduces your immunity or allows you to catch COVID easier because of an antibody mediated mechanism. That means that the antibodies gained from the vaccine coat the virus making it easier for the virus to enter cells. While that may be the case there are other reasons. The first being is that those people who initially got COVID with the first wave probably decided they were immune and did not need to be vaccinated. Also the people that are more likely to catch COVID; ie those in high risk areas or high population density areas are more likely to get the vaccine than those that aren’t. This would fit with the fact that the unvaccinated over 70 seem to catch COVID at a greater rate the vaccinated. Vaccination in this age group is less likely to be stratified by their personal risk. The last reason is that the unvaccinated cohort may be less inclined to be tested.

The second interesting thing is the extremely low death rate under the age of 30. Only 1 or 2 in a million in this age group die. ….and the one’s that do die are likely to be sick from some other condition making them vulnerable. One thing to note about the death rate is that it is not necessarily related to COVID….it is considered as a death from COVID if it occurs within 28 days (and also within 60 days) of a positive test for COVID). It is used as an approximation and it compares like to like (unvaccinated who had a positive test vs vaccinated who had a positive test)… it is a pretty relative marker

The next thing to notice is the significant reduction in death rate after getting COVID from ages 30 up following vacciantion. Between age 30-39 it goes from 10 in a million to 2 in a million. Between 60-69 it goes from 31 per 100,000 to 7.9 per 100,000 and over the age of 80 it goes from 16 in 10000 to 6 per ten thousand. The death rate among the unvaccinated is consistently 4-5 times higher in all these age groups. Assuming that most people with co-morbidites would rush to get vaccinated this would imply that the unvaccinated are also the healthier cohort of people. Even at the 6 month mark it would seem that the over 80 age group still have a significant benefit from the vaccine (albeit it is hard to know how many of this group have had their booster).

So I hope that puts to rest that the vaccine is not effective… it is. However its use in the under 30 age group seems completely unnecessary. The figures also put rest another concern… that the vaccine causes abortions. The rate of stillborn birth is exactly the same between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. I know this sort of information can be unpopular but there it is…the pure unadulterated figures.