What to Watch Update for Monday March 17 2025

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Summary of the "What to Watch" Update prepared for Monday, March 17, 2025:
This update, prepared over the weekend, reviews market charts and organizes them into three categories: positive, negative, and those to keep an eye on due to their potential market impact. It’s a weekly summary, though daily video updates are also available. The analysis reflects market conditions as of Friday, March 14, 2025, with some notable shifts after Friday’s bounce.
Positive Indicators
The Advance-Decline Line: Holding up well despite S&P 500 declines, supported by price and volume above the moving average, with a Friday uptick. However, volume dips reflect rotation from mega-cap growth to value stocks rather than new money entering.
Accumulation-Distribution: A "Smart Money" Indicator, it remains positive, staying above its moving average despite a brief dip below this key level occurred on Thursday, but recovered after Friday’s bounce.
Swenlin Trading Oscillator: Slightly turning positive after Friday’s price and volume bounce, though still below zero, offering cautious optimism.
Chaiken Oscillator: Another "Smart Money" Indicator trending upward post-Friday, indicating buying, though recently choppy.
The Long-Term S&P 500 Weekly Trend: Despite recent declines, the S&P remains above a trend line from the 1987 crash.
QQQ/IWM Ratio: Small caps lag, but the ratio holds above a key level, avoiding a dot-com bust-like collapse.
NASDAQ 100/Dow Ratio: Growth outperforming Value, staying above a critical threshold.
S&P Weekly Pivot Points: After falling below a quarterly pivot point earlier in the week, Friday’s move pushed it back above, suggesting long-term support holds for now.
Negative Indicators
Intraday Chart: Weekly decline with a Friday bounce, but below the 200-day moving average, raising reversal questions.
Daily Chart: S&P below the 200-day moving average, with Friday’s bounce on below-average volume signaling caution.
New Highs/New Lows: More lows than highs recently, indicating internal weakness.
Advancers-Decliners Oscillator: Below zero and declining, despite a slight Friday nudge.
Short-Term & Intermediate Trends (ADX): Confirmed negative trends with selling pressure dominating.
Moving Averages: Price below 20, 50, 100, and 200-day averages, with a "waterfall" pattern emerging.
Volume: Above-average selling volume contrasts with below-average buying volume on Friday.
Sentiment: Extreme pessimism persists unusually long below key levels, lacking a typical washout bounce.
Investors Intelligence: Advisors’ bearish ratio at 0.8 suggests a potential bottom, but unconfirmed.
Bond Market Spread: Rising fear as junk bond spreads widen relative to government bonds.
VIX: Elevated above 20, reflecting fear, though momentum may be shifting.
Growth vs. Value: Value outperforming growth, with no sustained reversal.
Chaiken Money Flow: "Smart money" indicator turning negative.
Vortex Indicator: Selling pressure dominates.
Risk-On/Risk-Off Ratio: Investors exiting high-growth stocks.
NYSE Advance-Decline: Bounced off the 200-day moving average but remains weak.
McClellan Oscillator & Summation Index: Negative, though showing slight upticks.
Parabolic SAR & Momentum: All timeframes negative, though oversold conditions hint at a possible bounce.
Bullish Percent Index: Below 50 across multiple indexes, despite Friday ticks upward.
Fibonacci Retracement: S&P holds 50% retracement after breaching 61.8%, with support in question.
Trend Channel: Rejection at the upper boundary on the 2009 channel line signaling weakness.
Special K Oscillator: Daily long-term negative signal triggered.
Sector Weakness: Tech, semiconductors, regional banks, and FANG stocks underperforming, many below their 200-day averages.
Stocks vs. Bonds: Shift toward bonds suggests recession fears.
Areas to Watch
Jobless Claims: Declining, showing economic strength, though federal job cuts loom.
DAX vs. S&P: German DAX surges while S&P lags, reducing the correlation.
Bond Ratios: Inflation fears ease as TIPs and short-term bond preferences decline.
Yield Curve: 10-year to 3-month inversion signals economic concern.
Oil & Dollar: Oil down, dollar hammered post-tariff hype.
Hindenburg Omen: Unconfirmed signal from March 3rd awaits a second spike by month-end.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1v-GfL5_33HMLZgkOuBVW6p7YytEOEXci/view?usp=sharing
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!