Ukraine's $500 billion rare earths scam: they don't exist, and we should know better

Reports that Ukraine will pledge its vast reserves of rare earth metals and other strategic minerals in exchange for hundreds of billions of dollars worth of loan forgiveness and additional aid have supply chain managers perplexed.

No honest assessment of Ukraine's mineral assets comes anywhere close to the numbers that top government officials claim. The US Geological Survey, and even publications from Ukraine's ministries report only trace amounts of rare earth metals anywhere in the country.

Even were we only to consider non-rare earths, other problems become apparent. Many of those reserves are in Russian hands, and much of the rest can not be commercially mined at current market prices.

The situation in Ukraine is alarmingly similar to Afghanistan, where Pentagon assessments of Afghan mineral reserves dramatically overstated their actual size and market value, while giving war planners additional time and resources to prosecute what was ultimately a losing war effort.

Resources and links:

US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025
https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-rare-earths.pdf

Afghanistan Is No Treasure Trove for China
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/28/afghanistan-china-rare-earth-minerals-latin-america-lithium/

Bloomberg, Rare Earths in Ukraine? No, Only Scorched Earth.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-19/trump-s-insistence-ukraine-has-rare-earth-elements-is-wrong

Ukrainian Geological Survey, The EU-Ukrainian Strategic Partnership on Critical Minerals
https://www.geo.gov.ua/wp-content/uploads/presentations/en/critical-minerals-portfolio.pdf

Ukraine’s resources. Critical raw materials
https://www.enseccoe.org/publications/ukraines-resources/

New York Times, U.S. Identifies Vast Mineral Riches in Afghanistan
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html

Inside China Business
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tILXLxMTmgA