S&P 500 Daily Update for Friday March 14 2025

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Summary of the "Daily Update" for Thursday, March 13th, with a look ahead to Friday, March 14th:
Market Overview (Thursday, March 13th):
Performance: The market experienced another down day, with the S&P 500 closing down 1.39% on above-average volume. It’s now in correction territory (down over 10% from its all-time high in February), joining the NASDAQ, which was already in correction territory.
Price Action: The day started with a flat open, dropped to the S1 support level (5550), briefly rebounded to hit resistance at the daily pivot (5596), then fell below S1 again, nearly reaching S2 (5500). It closed near the intraday low after hitting resistance at S1 again.
Trends: The short- and intermediate-term trends remain negative. The long-term trend is mixed—below the 200-day moving average but still technically positive.
Sentiment & Indicators: The SPX is oversold in the short and intermediate term, with some long-term indicators also showing oversold conditions. Sentiment is extremely negative, with a long list of technical indicators (e.g., RSI, Stochastics, McClellan Oscillator) at extreme negative levels. However, no significant bounce has occurred yet.
Key Factors Influencing the Market:
Economic Data: CPI and PPI reports this week were market-friendly (PPI unchanged vs. expected +0.3%, core PPI down 0.1%), and jobless claims were better than anticipated (220,000 vs. 228,000 expected). Despite this, the market continues to decline, treating good news as bad news.
Trade War Concerns: Uncertainty around tariffs is weighing heavily. President Trump proposed a 200% tariff on European beverage imports (e.g., wine, spirits) in retaliation to EU tariffs on American whiskey, escalating fears of a prolonged trade war.
Mega Caps & Growth: These sectors, which previously drove the market higher, are underperforming significantly recently, with stocks like Apple (-3.33%), Meta (-4.67%), and Tesla (-3%) seeing sharp declines.
Technical Observations:
S&P 500: Fell below key long-term support (quarterly pivot on the weekly chart) and the 200-day moving average. Only 19% of S&P stocks are above their 20-period moving average, signaling broad weakness.
VIX: Remains elevated at 24.66, though some fear gauges (e.g., VIX of VIX) slightly declined, showing mixed signals on rising fear.
Smart Money: Indicators suggest the Smart Money isn’t buying yet and may be selling, adding to the bearish outlook.
Broader Context:
Correction Territory: The S&P’s 10%+ drop is typical historically (median annual drawdown of 10% over 40 years), but the question is whether it deepens to 15-20%, signaling a bear market.
Global Shifts: Equity capital is moving from the U.S. to Europe, which has outperformed in 2025 so far.
Yield Curve: The 10-year to 3-month yield curve is inverted again, a potential recession signal, though employment data remains strong.
Outlook for Friday, March 14th:
Trend: Remains negative in the short and intermediate term, mixed in the long term. A close above the quarterly pivot could preserve long-term support; otherwise, it’s a bearish break.
Data: Consumer Sentiment is the key release, though news flow (e.g., tariffs) continues to dominate.
Seasonality: Historically positive for the Dow on March 14th, but neutral to negative for the S&P and NASDAQ.
Possibilities: The market is oversold, suggesting a potential bounce, but any rally may face selling pressure unless it reclaims the 200-day moving average.
Conclusion:
The market is in a precarious state—negative, oversold, and grappling with trade war fears despite favorable economic data. Friday could either reinforce the bearish trend or offer a chance for stabilization, depending on price action and sentiment shifts.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CxShkLtxEp9iLCgeurMOPMMWnG4EO3yT/view?usp=sharing
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!