Michael Oliver: Gold is Shifting to Outperformance vs the S&P

In this podcast episode of Palisades Gold Radio, your host Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis. A length discussion on the outlook for silver and gold, stock market trends, and broader economic factors ensues.

Oliver explains his $250 target for silver as realistic, noting historical precedents where silver outperformed gold during bull markets. He highlights the spread between silver and gold, emphasizing that silver could reach 2% of gold’s price, a significant move from its current level of around 1.13%. This would translate to a substantial increase in silver prices if gold rises significantly.

Oliver believes gold will lead the way up but notes silver and gold miners may outperform due to their lower valuations relative to gold. He shows charts indicating gold’s strength against the S&P 500, with gold currently at about 45% of the index compared to a peak of 60%. Gold’s momentum remains strong despite minor pullbacks.

Oliver warns that the stock market bubble is set to burst. He expects asset managers to shift funds into gold and related assets as the market weakens. The gold miners index (XAU) is undervalued compared to gold, suggesting significant potential gains once investors begin to reallocate capital.

Oliver discusses the dollar’s potential decline, noting a critical momentum level that could signal a broader downtrend. A weaker dollar would likely boost commodities and gold, though he cautions against tying this directly to political factors like Trump’s policies.

Reflecting on his book on anarcho-capitalism, Oliver suggests a shift away from statism toward market-driven solutions. He speculates that events like the stock market crash could catalyze significant policy changes, including tax reforms or central bank abolition.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:34 - Silver & Targets
6:25 - Flight To Gold vs S&P
9:33 - Gold Weekly Momentum
12:17 - Equities & Bubbles
16:18 - The Decline Grind?
18:18 - XAU & Miners
24:06 - Equity Selloff & Metals
27:16 - Dollar Effects & Momentum
33:30 - WTI Crude & Economic Reality
38:25 - Cuts & Changes in Nations
44:40 - Pain Points as Catalysts?
48:18 - Large Long-Term Trends
51:10 - DOGE & Ayn Rand
54:06 - Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com

Email MSA above, and they will send you this week's report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.

J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.

In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank's Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.