The Wire - March 3, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z March 3, 2025//
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//BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK STRIKES MANNHEIM CARNIVAL. NOTHING NEW REGARDING EPSTEIN DOCS.//

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-International Events-

Germany: A vehicle ramming attack was carried out in Mannheim this evening. The attacker was detained at the scene. So far, one fatality was reported, with many wounded in the attack. Mannheim police have requested witnesses to stop sharing video evidence on social media.

Austria: An unspecified threat at the Hauptbahnhof (central train station) in Vienna resulted in an evacuation of the station today, during the evening rush hour commute. AC: In keeping with tradition, very few details were released by authorities, however after a bomb squad sweep of the complex the alert was canceled. Though authorities have not specified the nature of the threat, most Austrian media has claimed the incident revolved around a bomb threat.

Norway: A brief diplomatic scandal was reported over the weekend following the Oval Office argument between the United States and Ukraine. After Zelenskyy was removed from the White House, various European nations have also transitioned to adopt a more hostile diplomatic position toward the United States. In Norway, these icy tensions came to fruition in the form of a maritime logistics company refusing to refuel American warships as part of a defense pact with Norway. Haltbakk Bunkers (a refueling company) issued a profanity-laced statement on social media culminating with the basic idea of "no fuel for Americans". This statement was rebuffed by Norway's Defense Minister, who stated that Norway would continue to provide the agreed upon support for American naval vessels who visit Norwegian ports. AC: Additionally, it must be noted that the CEO of Haltbakk confirmed that they don't actually have any established contracts to supply American vessels in the first place (other companies hold the larger defense logistical contracts), so this short-lived economic protest would not have had any impact anyway.

Ukraine: Two commercial cargo vessels were damaged in the port city of Odessa over the weekend. A Russian missile strike targeted the port and the vessels specifically due to allegedly being used for arms shipments to Ukraine. The M/V MSC LEVANTE F and the M/V SUPER SARKAS (a container ship and a bulk carrier respectively) were both struck in the attack, each suffering unknown damage.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - All chatter surrounding the release of the Epstein client list has largely fallen away following last week's influencer binder scandal. Neither the DoJ, nor the FBI have provided a clear time window for when any new documents are scheduled to be released. As AG Bondi's original order to provide the documents has not been carried out by the FBI, she has given the FBI 14 days to explain why her order wasn't followed. AC: As this scandal has largely devolved into strongly-worded emails, finger pointing, and ultimatums that aren't acknowledged, the chances of any further disclosures of new information are becoming increasingly remote.

Also in Washington, this afternoon the White House has announced the cessation of arms sales to Ukraine, as well as an increase in tariffs on Chinese trade to 20%. Following the failure of diplomatic talks, the previous trade tariffs with Canada and Mexico are set to come into effect at midnight (pending any last-minute diplomatic moves).

Florida: Three separate civilian aircraft violated the closed airspace surrounding President Trump's residence at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday. These airspace violations resulted in F-16's scrambling from the 1st Air Force out of Tyndall Air Force Base to intercept the aircraft. During at least two of these interceptions flares were deployed by military aircraft to get the attention of the civilian pilots. AC: It is not clear as to why these airspace violations occurred, as the airspace has been closed around Mar-a-Lago for years. It is possible that President Trump's weekend visit prompted a brief expansion of the normal airspace cordon, which went unnoticed by pilots who failed to check recent NOTAMs before flight.

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Analyst Comments: The Mannheim attack was probably targeting the festivities of Germany's Karneval, a period of springtime festivities (similar to Marti Gras) leading up to Lent. This month-long season of festivity comprises of multiple holidays such as Rose Monday, Fasnacht Day, Ash Wednesday, Good Friday, etc. As has become common throughout Europe, this attack highlights the importance of heightened vigilance and situational awareness at any public event, but especially those with any sort of Christian tradition or affiliated with any Christian holiday. Vehicle ramming attacks remain the number one threat vector for public events, despite how easy it is to prevent these types of attacks from happening.

This is extremely important to consider in the context of the current threat environment...and all of the false-threats called in all over Europe. For instance, today's fake bomb threat in Vienna provided substantial intelligence to malign actors. After the station was evacuated, all of the passengers congregated at the entrances of the facility...well within blast range of any bomb that may have been inside the station. Furthermore, the large crowd of people outside formed an ideal target for a vehicle ramming attack. Hundreds of people were tightly packed together, facing the station (and thus facing away from potential threats), all completely oblivious to the fact that this evacuation order could have been a critical first step in a much larger attack. Terrorists know and understand that merely pulling a fire alarm will result in a convenient arrangement of soft-targets vulnerable to a variety of attacks immediately outside a facility: Outside the security cordon, outside the protection of any kind of structural barrier, well away from any kind of Stop-the-Bleed kits, or security personnel. Attacking not a hard-target, but a soft-target gathered outside, has been an open and transparent threat vector for everyone to see for years, which includes malign actors.

Thankfully in this case, though situational awareness failed, no attack occurred either inside the train station, or among the crowd tightly-packed outside. However (as with the Mannheim attack) these incidents provide a critical chance to highlight weaknesses in situational awareness habits, and remind us that stepping two feet outside of an evacuated building does not mitigate the threat very much at all.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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