John Williams: U.S. Economic Weakness - How Markets Might Derail Trump's Early Efforts

Tom welcomes back economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to discusses the current state of the economy and inflation under the Trump administration. Williams highlights the disconnect between market optimism and underlying economic weakness, emphasizing that while GDP growth appears strong, key indicators like retail sales, industrial production, and housing are lagging or negative year-over-year.

He critiques the government's reporting methods, arguing that metrics such as GDP and CPI are manipulated to downplay inflation and inflate economic health. For instance, Williams points out that the consumer price index (CPI) has been redefined since the 1980s to suppress reported inflation rates by about 8 percentage points. This manipulation masks the true cost of living increases, particularly felt in housing costs.

Williams also discusses the role of the Federal Reserve, noting its focus on maintaining banking stability over controlling inflation or economic growth. Despite efforts to reduce liquidity, the money supply remains excessively high, fueling inflationary pressures. He warns that this could lead to hyperinflation and a potential collapse of the dollar's value, with gold serving as a key indicator of these risks.

Looking ahead, Williams predicts continued inflation and economic stagnation, with the possibility of a market crash or deeper recession within the next year. He underscores the importance of understanding inflation through alternative measures like gold prices, which reflect true economic conditions more accurately than official reports.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:34 - Trump & Weak Economy
4:53 - GDP Comparisons
8:09 - Stats & Market Reactions
10:50 - Past Five Year Inflation
16:14 - CPI Numbers & Gold
18:30 - Inflationary Outlook
21:03 - CPI Vs. Gold
24:49 - Gold & New Highs?
26:25 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://shadowstats.com
E-Mail: johnwilliams@shadowstats.com

Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.