S&P 500 Deep Dive Video Update for Monday February 24, 2025

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Overview
This newsletter explores and analyzes lesser-used charts to uncover subtle clues about the S&P 500 and broader market trends by diving deeper than typical analyses. It examines volatility, sentiment, technical indicators, and intermarket relationships, focusing on charts not currently featured in the daily videos or newsletters due to their lack of strong signals.
Key Observations
Volatility & Sentiment: The VIX (fear gauge) remains in a low range, reflecting a trendless 2025 market with no significant fear spike despite Friday’s drop. The Ulcer Index (sentiment) remains low, and the VIX-to-S&P 500 correlation and VIX-to-VVIX ratios are neutral, offering no clear insight. The VIX RSI (9-period) spiked Friday but isn’t extreme (not above 70 or below 30). Stock volatility (VIX) is slightly exceeding bond volatility (MOVE Index), and is moving up.
Risk Appetite: The risk-on vs. risk-off ratio (stocks vs. safer stocks) is flat, showing no conviction, unlike 2022’s defensive shift. Technical alerts from StockCharts.com turned red Friday, signaling negativity after earlier positivity.
Index Rankings: The QQQs (NASDAQ 100) lead at 88.5 and remain above the 50-day moving average, followed by NASDAQ (75.5), S&P 500 (70.3, just above the 50-day moving average), Dow (47.5), Mid-Caps (12), and Small Caps (10.3). Small and Mid-Caps, expected to shine seasonally, have underperformed sharply, especially Friday.
Short-Term Trends: The S&P fell below its 20-day moving average (negative short-term) but holds above the 50-day moving average (positive intermediate-term). The Advance-decline ratios (19-day) remain above zero, and are not yet negative. The “Boom Indicator” (distance from moving averages) is neutral, offering no extremes.
Intermediate-Term: A 50-to-100-day moving average rainbow shows the S&P at the top, not yet negative, despite compression from recent sideways action. The Bollinger Bands %B dropped below the midpoint Friday but isn’t extreme, reflecting thin bands from non-trending conditions.
Long-Term: The S&P is well above a 50-to-250-day moving average rainbow, with the Special K Oscillator positive but rarely actionable. Gains since October 2022 (72.02%) and October 2023 (46.53%) remain intact, though Friday’s defensive shift (staples, utilities up; growth down) post-options expiration raises questions.
Momentum & Divergences: The Connors RSI declined Friday but isn’t extreme. The Anchored Moving Averages project positivity, with all lines rising. The S&P 100 shows no major divergence from the S&P 500. The Point-and-Figure charts remain positive (no new O’s posted on Friday). Standard Deviation and The Mass Index lack conviction.
Intermarket Insights: Germany has been outperforming the U.S. (DAX all-time high vs. S&P sideways), with the correlation weakening. The Staples-to-Tech ratio spiked Friday but remains in a downtrend (Tech leading). Bonds (3-7 year) vs. TIPS show inflation concerns, with TIPS preferred, though choppy. The U.S. 10-year yield minus German yield correlates with the dollar, both remain stable.
Support Levels: Fibonacci retracements and the Ichimoku Cloud suggest support below current levels but remains positive with the S&P above the cloud. Stocks above their 50-day moving averages (S&P, Mid, Small Caps) show weakness but not extremes; all remain above the 200-day moving averages which is positive.

Conclusion
The market lacks clear direction, or a loss of positive momentum, with Friday’s drop (options expiration-driven) shifting focus to defensive sectors without overturning broader positivity. Volatility and sentiment are muted, Small/Mid-caps are lagging, and long-term trends are holding, but subtle defensive signals (e.g., staples outperforming) warrant monitoring. No major clues have emerged, aligning with a trendless 2025 so far—further shifts will be tracked daily.
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!