ISRAEL And Jordan Stand On The Brink Of WAR!

Right, so when it comes to the Middle East aside from Israel itself, the most pro Western nation after that can only be Jordan and by and large, they have reinforced that image throughout the atrocities Israel have been committing in Gaza and Lebanon and beyond, along with the destabilisation of Syria and the disruption of other Middle Eastern entities making their feelings very much felt, very much taking a side against Israel and it’s actions.
Jordan possibly more than any other nation in the Middle East has taken a neutral stance, I’ve described them as Switzerland during this conflict, though that hasn’t been strictly true, Jordan having allowed Israeli allies to use their airspace to repel Iran’s attacks during their Operation True Promise I, so have actually been more Israel centric, whilst also keeping out of matters. But although things have now soured to the point Jordan is verging on war with Israel itself now, it’s something that has been coming down the line for a while and has accelerated in recent months due in no small part to events outside of Jordan’s control coming to pass. More and more this is a nation being backed into a corner by Israel, by it’s supposed allies in the US and they may be about to be pushed too far.
Right, so Jordan, a nation that has had peace accords in place with Israel since 1994, and given the only thing separating them from Israel is the River Jordan itself, being an immediate neighbour to a state led by such an unhinged and genocidal government might well be good reason to keep the peace between them so to speak and as such have largely kept out of taking a side despite the genocide happening in Gaza, something they have come in for much criticism for, but they are being backed into a corner now, where things may explode anyway.
There are actually good reasons for Jordan to not want to take an active role. For one, it is the third driest nation on Earth, and despite it’s size, as a result of that, the vast majority of its 12 million population therefore live alongside the River Jordan, live alongside the Israel border, which also comprises the Dead Sea which the River Jordan drains into and further south the terrain becomes far more mountainous between the two countries. A 400km long border all told, 10 times the length of Gaza, 3 crossings exist between the two, the border in between those crossings impassable to the point of being impossible to police in places.
Being water poor has meant 40% of their water comes from the Yarmouk River basin in southern Syria, territory Israel has now seized control of, putting Jordan’s water supply at risk, whilst also reinforcing their justification for not taking people from Palestine, not only because it is ethnic cleansing and they wish to have no part in that, but because their limited water supply would struggle to support their population rapidly increasing.
So Israel controls a lot of the land their water comes from, most of the population live close to the Israel border, it’s little wonder Jordan has sought to keep the peace because war between the two nations would put a lot of Jordanian civilians in danger, war is the last thing they want.
Nonetheless, relations have soured over the last year or so.
Israel caused great insult to Jordan last year when they made the claim to be surrounded by enemies, when they share their largest border with Jordan. This resulted in Jordan’s foreign minister Ayman Safadi taking to the podium at the UN Security Council, which was hosting delegations from the 57 member group the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation, the OIC, where Safadi let rip at Netanyahu, following one of his woe is me, I’m a victim turns at the UN, where Safadi laid down an unequivocal unanimous offer, speaking on behalf of the whole of the OIC, on the table, for Israel to take. He said all of them are willing to guarantee with immediate effect the security of Israel in the context of Israel ending it's illegal occupation of Palestine, as per the advisory decision handed down by the International Court of Justice and allow for the formation of a Palestinian State. Well of course that didn’t happen.
Since then, Jordan have sent extra battalions to the border region, to those crossings, along with a message to Israel that any attempt to force Palestinians across their border they would view as a violation of their 1994 peace treaty. Israel’s response, was to create an eastern division to guard the border with Jordan.
Creating further upset in Jordan has been Donald Trump of course, it is his stupid idea to displace the whole of the Gazan population after all, but upon regaining the Presidency, Trump summarily cut all foreign aid to all countries except for Israel and Egypt, cutting off Jordan.
Now Trump, flip flopping over what he said at the moment, has said he wants Egypt and Jordan to take the people of Gaza, still funding one and not the other, so that’s a great look, that’s great diplomacy right there, but Jordanians fear Trump will hold restoration of funding over their heads in exchange for taking people from Gaza, which they have a lack of capacity for, the issue of water supply being a key one. Israel could also hold the water they control in southern Syria to ransom in effect too, which would certainly provoke.
Alternatively, Jordan’s unpoliceable border could be exploited by Israel as well. There are as I’ve said only 3 crossing points between Israel and Jordan, two crossings on the River Jordan, the Jordan River Crossing in the north, the Allenby Bridge north of the Dead Sea and the Yitzhak Rabin Crossing in the far south at the head of the Gulf of Aqaba which leads into the Red Sea. The mountainous region which forms much of the Jordanian-Israeli border running from the Dead Sea down towards the Gulf of Aqaba could see Israeli attempts to cross, perhaps to illegally smuggle Gazans across the border, or alternatively, where they would choose to engage Jordanian forces.
Jordan is under no illusion they are outgunned by Israel, but equally taking Jordan presents Israel with problems as well. Once they’ve taken the fertile occupied strip along the River Border, they are faced by a vast expanse of desert, sprawling territory they’d struggle to then hold, even if seizing and controlling the whole of Jordan is all part of the Greater Israel plan. It would also put Israel on a direct border with both Iraq, who are engaged in seeing the US leave their territory, but also the Saudis, who might see Israel as a much more significant threat to them at that point, and who refuse to have normalised relations with Israel until a Palestinian state is established.
What could Jordan do to avoid war though and push back on Trump’s narrative?
Jordan is full of US bases, they can be closed, a threat Honduras have already issued to Trump if he mistreats Hondurans being deported from the US. There are 3000 US troops stationed in Jordan but ultimately war is being considered and again it brings us back to Jordan’s foreign minister Ayman Safadi. Here’s an excerpt from the New Arab, where he makes the point of war being considered:
‘Forceful comments from Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi following Trump's announcement suggested that Amman would take a strong stance against Israel if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu forcibly expelled Gaza's population.
However, would the kingdom go so far as to engage in war with Israel in response to further ethnic cleansing of Palestinian land?
Some media has claimed so, particularly after Arabic-language reports quoted Safadi as saying: "If there are any attempts to forcibly displace Palestinians to Jordan, we will confront them with all our capabilities. This is a declaration of war to Jordan, and we will respond."
Lamis Andoni, a leading expert on Jordanian-Palestinian affairs who launched The New Arab as its editor-in-chief, said Safadi's comments emphasised the gravity of the situation.
"He said these comments to stress the implications of Trump's plan - this is what Safadi meant. This is a red line for Jordan, they are also afraid it will spark a civil war as it has inflamed people's fears and concerns for the future about more refugees in the country," she told TNA.’
Certainly that last point carries with it the most weight, because as much as Jordan’s government and King Abdullah might want to avoid war at all costs, the people are far less happy about sitting and waiting for what might seem like the inevitable, to agree to take Gazans into Jordan has been described as political suicide by Bedouin spokesperson Etaf Al-Roudan and as such a hurriedly arranged diplomatic visit for King Abdullah to see Trump at the White House, apparently at the US’s bequest, has been arranged for the 11th February. This was announced before Trump’s decision to row back on owning Gaza and making the displacement of Gazan’s temporary now, so we’ll see how it goes, but if it goes badly, or Trump gobs off something completely contrary to what gets discussed on Truth Social, all bets will be off anyway.
Trump is blowing in both directions right now, rowing back on his determination to relocate the Gazan people and then reiterating it all again on social media. He has said Jordan will take them, Abdullah is going with red lines saying no we damn well won’t. How will it turn out? We won’t wait long to see, but with Israel already making plans to enact this plan of Trumps anyway, his words emboldening them to go ahead with it, it’s a massive problem Trump has created in the Middle East now, making matters ten times worse as he was always bound to do.
How do you think this will pan out? Will Jordan relent, or will they be forced to do something more proactive shortly as more and more control seems to be taken out of their hands by events happening all around them, not just this debacle Trump has caused now? Do let me know in the comments below.
Meanwhile Hamas have weighed in exactly what they think of Trump’s idea, can you imagine how they’ve reacted? Wonder no more, it’s all here in this video recommendation as your next watch, but before you do if you haven’t yet hit like, share and subscribe to the channel, please do so, so as to not miss out on all new content dropping daily as well as supporting the channel to keep on keeping on which is very much appreciated and I’ll hopefully catch you on the next vid. Cheers folks