The Wire - January 5, 2025

//The Wire//1800Z February 5, 2025//
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//BLUF: TRUMP ANNOUNCES AMERICA WILL SEIZE GAZA STRIP. USA WITHDRAWS FROM UNITED NATIONS HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL.//

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-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - As part of a press conference conducted in conjunction with PM Netanyahu's visit to the United States, President Trump suddenly announced several startling policy decisions. First, President Trump reiterated multiple times that he supports the forced expulsion of every human soul in Gaza, into other nations such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan (among others). Secondly, President Trump declared that the United States will seize control of Gaza, and be responsible for managing the entire Strip. AC: As most people were rather taken aback by this bold statement, and even though Trump reiterated his words and articulated his thoughts very clearly, no one is really sure what this means in practice.

Also in Washington, President Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the United Nations Human Rights Council. AC: It's not clear how this will work out, since this appears to be contradictory to Trump's stated goals in Gaza. For instance, this (and other executive actions) have resulted in a complete defunding of the UNRWA. To many America-first voters, this may seem to be a positive budget cut at face value. However, this agency (and the UN at large) is really the only entity in the region that is corralling the refugees in Gaza. As such, if Trump wants to defund the only civilian groups that can facilitate the mass exodus of Palestinians to wherever they are destined to be, the only other options are to use military logistics to achieve this forced migration.

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Analyst Comments: For those that do not understand the sheer magnitude of President Trump's policy decision in Gaza, this is a once-in-a-century policy decision the magnitude of which is impossible to convey. Even if this is a negotiation tactic (for instance, to oversell American involvement, so that the counter-offer of Israeli occupation of Gaza looks reasonable by comparison), this is an unprecedented line of logic altogether. As stated (with much fatigue) many times before, the issue regarding the current war in the Middle East is the most hot-button issue there is, with many states (and the US government) quite literally making certain opinions on this war illegal, to some degree. So right up front, no honest discussion can be had, even by those who have the most innocent and/or neutral intentions. This is one of the most important details to remember moving forward.

Nevertheless, any comments on President Trump's recently announced policy decisions in the Middle East probably will (rather tiresomely) not have much weight at all or be able to change what is about to happen. Pushing aside the literal Merriam-Webster's definition of ethnic cleansing (and the destabilization that brings), if Trump is indeed serious about his aspirations for owning beachfront property in Gaza, he may find that getting there is more challenging than he previously thought. Trump theorizing about invading Greenland or Panama does not ring the same as invading Gaza, one of the most heavily militarized regions on Earth.

Just to wargame the significance of this for a moment, in 1990, the U.S. military invaded Panama as part of Operation Just Cause, with the goal of ousting General Manuel Noriega from power. The United States achieved this goal in 41 days after very little effort on the part of the Panamanian forces. Greenland, being an arctic nation largely centered around one or two main (but still very small) cities would not really be much of a military challenge either. Gaza, on the other hand, presents one of the most significant military challenges possible in warfare...an entrenched adversary, who is strongly dug in throughout an urban area. Even Israel, largely cratering the entire Strip, has not been able to have nearly the military success that they wanted. Bottom line: If the U.S. Military can't even build a single bridge in Gaza there's very little chance of a military campaign going as intended. No one who has seen true war wishes that experience on anyone else, and certainly not for the end result to be a five star hotel on a beach, as has been publicly conveyed already, before any of this gets started.

As stated previously, peace can come about in two ways, through a negotiated end to arms, or by killing/removing every living soul on one side of the conflict. With Trump's highly-detailed comments, no one, not even the most staunch and die-hard Trump supporter, can deny that he has made his aspirations very publicly known. Once again, this may seem like a fickle detail, but it really does matter...the United States is looking to invade another nation not because they flew planes into our buildings, or because of a general idea of "freedom".....Trump has directly stated this is purely for real estate purposes, publicly pontificating the Gaza skyline and musing on the commercial ventures that the highly-lucrative beachfront access offers in Gaza. It's hard enough to get a population to send their sons to die halfway around the world for some other country's "freedom", but it's another thing entirely to get people to die for a Burger King parking lot.

Once again, if this whole thing is a grand game of bluff, and even if it never comes to fruition, the damage has already been done in the form of long-standing international norms being fractured. Even just a few years ago, diplomats would exert the most extreme care when speaking about the Middle East, and now, this radical policy shift will probably have unintended consequences...such as heightening the terrorism risk here at home.

Speaking more broadly regarding the current threat environment in the United States, of course the entire Arab/Islamic world probably will be rather upset by this policy shift, and thus not entirely friendly to the United States (especially those currently living in the United States). Considering the current shake-ups in government, it was probably an unwise decision to piss off all of the FBI agents (who now have the perfect motivation to let a terror attack slip through, just to spite Trump) at the same moment the risk of Islamic retaliatory terror attacks is extraordinarily high. Anytime a people are quite literally pressed up against a wall, and know with 100% certainty that they will be forcibly removed from their homes, never to return again, they will fight to the death. Even Israel was smart enough to gaslight the Palestinians into thinking that the millions of refugees would someday be allowed to go back to what was left of their homes, as the Israeli government knew the power of an enemy that has no hope for a peaceful existence one day. Now, President Trump has removed the illusion altogether, not just for the Palestinians, but for the whole world. The United States has zero moral ground to stand on by opposing Russia's invasion of Ukraine at this point, as even Russia is not really interested in exiling every single human being in their new "occupied territories" to a completely different nation.

On the exact same day President Trump announced this shocking policy shift, the White House also announced that he would be attending the Super Bowl this weekend in New Orleans. As a reminder, this exact same city was host to a complex Islamic-based terror attack a mere 32 days ago. It was also probably a rather poor judgement call for President Trump to state that if Iran were to assassinate him, Iran would be annihilated.....because this creates the conditions for a third party to carry out some malign act...and blame it on the Iranians. Trump has told the world that his demise would result in a total destruction of Iran...which is what Israel wants more than anything else. Netanyahu even gifted President Trump a golden pager during his state visit yesterday...a very clear, bold, and morbid message indeed.

All in all, the conditions are nearly perfect for the situation to get out of hand; even if this is a grand game of bluff, the escalation of risk is exceptionally great when it comes to the terrorism risks this game brings to the table. Bullying Canada (and to some extent, the Mexican government) is nothing compared to inflaming tensions with the Muslim world...and this could not have come at a worse time.

Most federal law enforcement agencies are angry at Trump for personal reasons (many of which are about to be fired, and thus have nothing to lose by doing their jobs poorly). Most people of Islamic faith or more generally supporters of the Palestine movement now have more motive than ever to conduct some sort of attack, and quite literally none of the personal threats to Trump (from the campaign) have really been addressed at all. Even the two attempts on Trump's life during the campaign just fizzled out of the news cycle and no real answers ever came from the counterterrorism world on what actually happened in each case.

Even Trump's own supporters have to be conducting some sort of retrospective analysis at this point. Americans have to assess their future based on the words AND actions of their nation's leadership; for better or worse, this is a huge planning factor with variable importance. Granted, in the long run, all of this is is largely unimportant as people will eventually forget the things a person does. They'll forget the remarks, they'll forget the documents that were signed...but they won't forget how a person made them feel. And right now, it's become patently obvious that President Trump has kinder words for the people of Israel, than for the citizens of his own nation.

If Trump's actions/policies are 99% good for the country, but that last 1% involves occupying yet another hostile desert country in the Middle East, what was the net gain? To be sure, there's always the "this is just 5d chess" crowd, who will take any negative action by President Trump and try to turn it somehow into a positive action. Even as this report is written, scores of heavy-hitting pro-Trump influencers are heavily perpetuating the Sunk Cost Fallacy, gaslighting their fans into thinking that an American occupation of Gaza really is the best option. Or that this is some masterful "Art of the Deal" negotiating tactic. At this point, rejecting the words that have come directly out of Trump's mouth, verbatim, is a rejection of reality itself. At some point the American people are going to have to understand that the end result is what matters most, not what the initial intentions were. Somewhat ironically, the love of Trump from the political right, and the hatred of Trump from the political left, are equally illogical and ignorant of the reality of the situation. This alone makes any sort of semi-neutral perspective despised by both sides. But this also means that this is all the more reason for the average citizen to step up, try to do the right thing, and contribute the best they can in steering the ship through the tough times ahead.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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