The Wire - February 4, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z February 4, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SHOOTING IN SWEDEN RESULTS IN MASS CASUALTY INCIDENT. TRADE WAR IN NORTH AMERICA PAUSED AS NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE.//

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-International Events-

Sweden: This morning a shooting was reported at an educational facility in Örebro. Approximately 10x fatalities were reported, with many others wounded in the attack.

AC: If accurate, these casualty figures make this attack the deadliest mass shooting in Swedish history. Due to the long-standing social issues in Sweden, information regarding this attack will very likely be suppressed by authorities. Consequently, much like the U.K.'s Southport murders, it will probably take several months for any details to be confirmed beyond a reasonable doubt. Right now, the very unconfirmed rumors circulating on social media suggest this facility, while being touted as a "school" was not a place of education for children, but rather an adult-education facility similar to a community college in the United States. Further rumor suggest that this facility was heavily frequented by immigrants.

North America: Immediately following yesterday's report, both Canada and Mexico capitulated with regards to the trade war, bringing a temporary halt to the tariff threats posed by the United States. More diplomatic negotiations will take place later, but in the meantime Canada has immediately pledged to increase their efforts to combat the illicit Fentanyl trade flowing from Canada into the United States. This will include the appointing of a Fentanyl Czar, and a "Joint Strike Force" that will combat drug trafficking along the border with Canada.

In Mexico, various counter-narcotics campaigns are beginning to take form. Overnight many plane-watchers and aviation enthusiasts noted the presence of very substantial Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) platforms operating in the vicinity of Mexico. AC: Many eyebrows were raised due to the observance of an RC-135 RIVET JOINT platform flying a racetrack pattern up and down the Gulf of California. This one of the most capable Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) aircraft in the world. Considering that this airspace was not congested at the time, nor is a common flight path, the crew could easily have flown without their ADS-B transponder turned on, if their goal was to remain covert. Even the most rudimentary internet search also reveals that this platform never flies on a whim, and very substantial military actions usually follow shortly after. Consequently, this move was probably an intentional message to Cartel leadership, either to serve as a warning outright, or to let Cartel members know that all of their communications are under surveillance.

-HomeFront-

Southwest: Counter-ICE protests and demonstrations continued throughout the region overnight, with some protests shifting into riots in some locations. In Los Angeles, an unlawful assembly was declared after crowds became violent. In Arizona, similar protests became riots as well, with demonstrators in Glendale successfully stealing a police vehicle during the fray (before it was eventually recovered).

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Analyst Comments: In Washington, various protests and general outrage displayed by sitting Congressmen has continued following the de facto closure of USAID. Over the past 24 hours, internal reports released by DOGE have directly tied most of these politicians to "foundations" that were directly getting US tax dollar payouts from USAID. Of note, the outrage over the auditing of USAID is purely bipartisan, with politicians on both sides of the aisle being named as sitting on the boards of various entities that were directly getting financial payments from the US government. Many people often ask how it's possible for a member of Congress or some other government official to have a net-worth in the millions, while working a position that has a meager salary. Most people chalk this up to simply insider trading, but in the case of USAID, this organization has been a major cash cow for almost all American politicians since it's inception. Somewhat interestingly, President Zelensky of Ukraine stated in an interview with the Associated Press that his country only actually received around $75 billion out of the total $177 billion that was approved by Congress. Obviously, this is a claim that must be taken with a grain of salt as there are undoubtedly ulterior motives at play. However, the timing of this statement is interesting. Though largely speculative, it is possible that this claim being made immediately before massive audits come to light is intended to manipulate the future of Ukrainian aid by revealing how much Ukraine actually received versus what they think they are entitled to.

In the north, the recent diplomatic spat between the United States and Canada probably will have unintended consequences, once the population figures out what it was all about. Now that Canada has capitulated so quickly, it's a rather moot point, but it would be helpful to remember what the conflict was all about in the first place....it was mostly about Canada's refusal to combat the Fentanyl trade. Though somewhat surprising to Americans, business has been booming in Canada with regards to the Fentanyl trade, specifically with regards to a further refinement of precursor materials imported into Canada from India and China.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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