Mystery of plane crash: Missile and drone strike, collision with birds flock, technical malfunction

On December 25, a plane flying frm Baku to Grozny crashed in Kazakhstan. OSINT analysts who published their analysis expressed that the holes in the fuselage of the crashed plane resemble the results of a hit by a Pantsir-S1 air defense missile. According to analyst Oliver Alexander, such holes could not be opened in an aircraft during a bird strike and cause such damage.
"If the damage had been caused by bird strikes or the aircraft hitting the ground, then there would have been more holes in the fuselage around the holes. It appears that the impact on the aircraft had enough kinetic energy to pierce the fuselage."
Bild's military analyst Julian Röpke spoke to an unnamed aviation expert, who said the crash could have been caused by an external influence.
The version of a bird strike was also ruled out by Kazakh aviation expert Serik Mukhtibayev. According to him, even if one of the engines failed, the plane could have continued its flight on the second engine.
Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at AeroDynamic Advisory, a consulting firm, told Reuters that bird strikes usually result in the aircraft landing at the nearest point. "It's possible to lose control of the aircraft, but ultimately land at the nearest point," hesaid.
Military expert Yan Matveev said that part of the damage to the fuselage is cylindrical, which is consistent with the shape of the striking elements of the Pantsir-S1 missile. Moreover, if the aircraft is at a sufficient altitude, then the power of this missile may not be enough to immediately disable the aircraft.
Ruslan Leviev, founder of the CIT analytical group, says that the holes in the fuselage of the crashed plane are similar to those of the Air Defense Forces. At the same time, Leviev stressed that he was not ready to claim that it was a missile strike.
The public page " VChK-OGPU" says that the plane could have been shot down in the sky over the Naursky district of Chechnya, where more than one military unit with air defense systems is located. İt is noted tahtt, the pilot mistook the strong blow to the plane for a collision with birds . However, experts say that, most likely, a missile exploded near the plane at that moment .
The Russian authorities are trying to conceal the fact of a drone attack on Chechnya. This attack may be connected to the crash of a passenger aircraft in Kazakhstan, according to Agentstvo.Novosti on Telegram.
According to the news agency, Chechen authoritiesdid not acknowledge the drone attack on the region even 10 hours after it occurred. State agencies and law enforcement-linked Telegram channels contained only one mention of the incident and one attempt to deny it.
Notably, posts from the Russian Ministry of Defense, which usually boasts about "destroying Ukrainian drones," did not refer to attacks on the Caucasus regions.
Meanwhile, a post was published on Ksenia Sobchak’s Krovavaya barynya Telegram channel, claiming that the Chechen Emergency Situations Ministry denied any attempted drone attack on Grozny.
Interestingly, Russian authorities also initially tried to conceal an attack on neighboring North Ossetia. However, the head of North Ossetia, Sergey Menyaylo, later claimed that drone debris allegedly fell on a shopping center in Vladikavkaz.