The Wire - December 18, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z December 18, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: RUSSIA APPREHENDS ALLEGED KIRILLOV ASSASSIN. CONGRESS PROPOSES 1,500+ PAGE SPENDING BILL. MORE DRONE INCURSIONS REPORTED AT OHIO MILITARY BASE. CALIFORNIA DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY REGARDING BIRD FLU.//
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-International Events-
Russia: As the investigation into the assassination of General Kirillov continues, one alleged assailant has been detained for his role in the attack. Allegedly, the unidentified attacker planted the IED, and managed the video camera which livestreamed the attack to a command center in Ukraine, which remotely detonated the IED. AC: Though none of this information is independently verifiable, perhaps more concerningly is the lack of Russia’s response to this attack. Russia will certainly respond in some manner, though at the moment the means by which this will occur is anyone’s guess.
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: The “drone” saga continues as before, largely spurred on by recent contradictory governmental statements. Very few new sightings have occurred (possibly due to poor weather conditions reducing visibility throughout the region), however many people are still concerned that the drones (as in, the legitimate ones that can be discerned from commercial aircraft) are being operated by a foreign adversary. A few days ago the DoJ, DoD, and DHS issued a joint statement that none of this activity is abnormal and that all drone activity is either lawful civilian operation or a case of observers mistaking commercial aircraft for unmanned platforms.
Ohio: Following Friday’s airspace closure at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, more drone reports emerged this morning. Additional unmanned aerial platforms were observed flying over the base overnight, as well as early this morning.
Washington D.C. – The latest omnibus spending bill has caused concern in Congress due to its roughly 1,500 page length and the last-minute introduction of the bill which statistically suggests that no one has had time to read through it all. However, readers of the bill have already identified that Congress is allegedly trying to give itself a 40% pay raise, prompting a general state of outrage from taxpayers.
California: Governor Newsom has declared a state of emergency regarding the H5N1 bird flu outbreak. No human-to-human cases of transmission have been reported.
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Analyst Comments: The recent statements by government agencies to address the New Jersey situation haven’t really alleviated concerns due to most people simply not believing anything federal agencies have to say. One surefire way to ensure that the American people think the drones are part of a secret government test, is to say that the drones are not part of a secret government test.
Perhaps most damningly is the contradiction of what government says, and what agencies do. For instance, the DHS says the drones aren’t a threat. However, the drones spotted all around the country are so little of a threat that it has become essential to deploy large scale defenses to protect against them, and to close airspace over critical military bases due to drone activity. For instance, in October, Langley Air Force Base issued a solicitation (Notice ID FA480025R0001) for counter-UAS netting to protect the F-22 Raptor fighter aircraft parked on the ramps at their airfield. The use of anti-drone netting is a wise force-protection move, however this does raise the larger concern as to why anti-drone netting would be required at an American military base within the United States.
Recently, a Chinese national was arrested for flying a drone over Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Yinpiao Zhou was arrested before boarding a flight back to China on December 9th.
Ever since the Ukrainian war proved their utility, small quadcopters (and now, fiber-optically controlled FPV drones) are a clear and present danger to American infrastructure, to include military bases. The recent efforts by government to downplay the events in New Jersey, even though the vast majority of events have probably been a case of mass formation psychosis, negates all of the genuine concerns that likely resulted in this incident in the first place.
Exactly what the situation is in New Jersey remains largely unknown, with no real solid evidence coming forward to confirm without a doubt what is happening. Imagery of the unknown aircraft remains poor and largely unverifiable. Eyewitness accounts remain extremely common, with tens of thousands of people reporting drone sightings all around the country. However, details surrounding these reports are again almost impossible to verify due to lack of detail. Many people, who have not looked up from their smartphone in years, are now looking to the sky and paying attention to their surroundings for the first time. As such, the overwhelming majority of all discourse surrounding the events in New Jersey is simply not an accurate perspective to be operating from. Likewise, since gaslighting on Twitter/X is very profitable, engagement farmers who are financially incentivized to manufacture engagement, have been posting photos of “drones” that are so clearly commercial aircraft that the airline and tail number can be identified. This is a gaslighting attempt to generate comments that essentially say “this is not a drone”, thus driving up engagement (and revenue) on a post. Similar efforts have been undertaken by those who have recently learned about the world of tracking aircraft, and that dozens of FAA-approved research balloons float around the United States daily.
Analyst: S2A1
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