The Wire - December 16, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z December 16, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: OHIO AIR FORCE BASE BRIEFLY CLOSES AIRSPACE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO UAS ACTIVITY. NEW JERSEY “DRONE” SITUATION CONTINUES WITH LITTLE NEW EVIDENCE.//
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-International Events-
Germany: This morning a vote of no confidence was held in the Bundestag, resulting in Chancellor Scholtz’s government collapsing. Snap elections are to be held in February.
Canada: Finance Minister Freeland resigned her post this morning following conflict within PM Trudeau’s cabinet. Freeland reported that Trudeau asked her to step down as Finance Minister to serve in another cabinet position over the weekend, which she replied to this morning by resigning outright.
Syria: Israeli forces have continued their north and eastward axis of advance from the Golan Heights into Syria. Turkish activities in the North continue as well, though remain harder to discern as fighting continues in the remote terrain of northeastern Syria. However, indications are growing that the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) is preparing for a large-scale offensive against the Kurds along the eastern front.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – The White House has continued the large-scale pardons issued by the outgoing Biden regime, with 39 pardons and 1,499 commutations being announced on Thursday.
Wisconsin: A school shooting was reported at the Abundant Life Christian School in Madison this morning. So far, 3x fatalities and 7x wounded were reported following the shooting, and the assailant took their own life at the scene.
Ohio: Following the events in New Jersey over the past few weeks, Wright-Patterson Air Force base reported an airspace closure due to drones inhibiting flight operations. Friday night base officials observed many drones of varying sizes and configurations, which resulted in the issuance of NOTAMs number M1132, M1133, and M1134, which resulted in the complete closure of the airspace for several hours.
New Jersey: No clear and indisputable evidence has been noted over the past few days to indicate what the recent “drone” crisis may be. Statements by officials have been mixed. New York claims to have requested “drone detection systems” from the federal government, and that these resources (whatever they are) are being deployed around the tri-state area.
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Analyst Comments: The implementation of a “drone detection system” in New York is interesting in that framing the response in this manner signals the lack of understanding regarding drone detection and surveillance. The U.S. government doesn’t have a magic suitcase of tech that can make everything okay. There’s much more to it than that; drone detection and mitigation technology is an extremely wide and varied subject area, with many different means of monitoring aerial objects. From NORAD’s extremely capable suite of radar systems, to satellite-based technologies, to the intricate web of counter-drone technologies, down to the individual user level in many cases, there are a plethora of options for detecting what these “drones” might be, and where they originate from. This morning, President Trump alluded to as much, very bluntly stating that the U.S. government knows exactly what the situation is regarding the drones that have genuinely been observed. This matter-of-fact statement points to what is fairly obvious; the chances of the US government not already tracking every piece of technology in the United States, are zero. There is absolutely zero chance that at least two dozen different federal agencies haven’t already weeded out the fake/erroneous reports from the genuine sightings, and already identified where these “drones” are coming from.
More broadly however, in the realm of national security, sometimes wishing will indeed make it so. Right now, there are very real drone threats to critical infrastructure and sensitive military sites that have been present for many years before the New Jersey situation captured the imaginations of many. Now that the nation is spun up on this, malign actors have almost certainly come out of the woodwork to take advantage of the fray and conduct operations on their own. Unfortunately, due to the nature of social media, anyone with a slightly plausible theory as to what the “drone” crisis is all about can rocket to the height of stardom, solely based on the impossibility of proving a negative. The complete lack of trust the American people have in government exacerbates this phenomenon, as no one believes the official narrative anyway.
Currently, the most alarming narrative that has made the rounds on social media is the theory that these “drones” are somehow related to a secret search for nuclear or radiological material. So far, no evidence supports this theory, and what evidence appears to support the theory can easily be explained by other details. For instance, claims have been made that the “drones” are conducting an aerial search for hidden nuclear material, or even a nuclear weapon. However, upon closer examination, this theory falls apart rather quickly. For one, small drones make for a rather poor radiological isotope detector platform. There is a reason that all of the known US government “nuke sniffer” platforms are based on very large aircraft. For example, the main nuclear material detection platform currently in active service with the US military is the WC-135 CONSTANT PHOENIX platform, a multi-engine fixed wing platform. None of the CONSTANT PHOENIX platforms currently in active service have made any deviation from their normally observed pattern of activity.
Another detail that derails the “nuke sniffing” theory is that none of the “drones” have been observed conducting any sort of search pattern. If unmanned aircraft were being used to collect data on radiological threats, some form of a search pattern would be required for the effort to be worthwhile. As it stands, no one has seen any of these “drones” for more than a few seconds at a time.
Some claims have been made that radiation detectors within New York City have allegedly reported a “spike” in radiation detected over the past few days, allegedly adding some weight to the fissile material theory. Once again, closer examination of the data provides more clarity. The primary source of these claims lies with a consumer-grade website that allows owners of a particular kind of consumer-grade Geiger Counter to upload their data to the internet, and thus crowdsource a national map of radiation data. Herein lies the first problem; this website (GMCMap) is most certainly not a reliable scientific source, despite its best intentions. Since almost everyone who will spend their money on a Geiger counter or scintillation detector will also at some point own a check source, there’s nothing preventing a user from holding a check source up to their meter that is streaming data online. In short, an individual user can put a rock on their desk next to their Geiger counter (which is streaming its data online), and make the whole state think that Chernobyl 2.0 just occurred. This happens frequently, with large spikes of radiation being “detected” all the time on many of these crowdsourced sensor networks. Couple this with the minor detail that these specific kinds of devices are known to house rather insensitive Geiger–Müller tubes, this data is not entirely an indicator of much. On the contrary, the various calibrated and certified radiological detectors strategically placed all around the state (and under the control of many different groups, agencies, private companies, and educational institutions) have reported no abnormal radiological concerns over the past few weeks. None of the authorities who wear Personal Radiation Detectors (PRDs) every day, nor the statically-emplaced counterterrorism detection tools strategically set up around the city, have reported anything abnormal with regards to radiological concerns throughout the area.
Additionally, some engagement-farming accounts on social media have claimed that a shipment of nuclear material has gone missing in New York, and that this is somehow related to the drone sightings. Again, closer investigation reveals that a radiological source did go missing three days ago, as reported by Nuclear Regulatory Commission Event Number 57455. However, the source (a Ge-68 pin source used in the medical field) is vastly too small to even be detected from a few feet away, much less than by a mystery drone.
As a reminder, radiological material goes missing shockingly frequently, and thus the focus on such a small source of radiological material is probably undertaken by those who don’t know any better, or by those seeking to capitalize on the fear of anything with the word “nuclear” attached to it. For perspective, this particular missing source of radiological material has a reported activity level of 0.267 mCi. So, if a person were to eat it (and thus absorb 100% of the decaying particles into their body, just as a worst case scenario), in an hour they would receive the equivalent of two abdominal CT scans. Which is hardly akin to handling graphite from the core of an RBMK reactor.
Perhaps the biggest consideration during this “drone” affair is that this incident kicked off over a week ago…but zero clear pictures of drones have been provided by anyone so far. Despite being one of the most densely populated regions in the United States, and the “drones” being well-lit and slow-flying, not one photo has been provided that clearly indicates an object is not a commercial aircraft or a consumer grade quadcopter. Considering the Chinese Spy Balloon crisis, which emerged in one of the least densely-populated states in the country…locals were still able to get professional-grade imagery of the first balloon instantly. As such, the absence of tens of thousands of clear photos in New Jersey is a strong indicator of what the reality of the situation might be.
However, the danger with realizing that most of this incident is purely hysteria, is that the real and palpable drone threats become dismissed as well. It would be very unwise throw the initial drone observations out with the bathwater, just like it would be unwise to dismiss the other very real drone concerns around the country.
Analyst: S2A1
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