The Wire - December 11, 2024 - Priority

//The Wire//2300Z December 11, 2024//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: CONCERNS GROW REGARDING NEW JERSEY AIRCRAFT SIGHTINGS. MAJOR CHINESE ACTIVITY REPORTED IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT. SYRIAN REBELS NOW CONTROL SIGNIFICANT STOCKPILES OF MANPADS.//
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-International Events-
Syria: Concerns are growing regarding the staggering amount of military arms that are now in the hands of HTS rebels throughout the country. Though Israel, Turkey, and the United States have bombed most military arms caches throughout the country, the al-Qaeda-linked “rebels” now control hundreds (if not thousands) of Man Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADs), tens of thousands of rockets, the entire Syrian Air Force, and the like.
Far East: Concerns are also mounting regarding China’s recent activities in the Taiwan Strait. Currently, China has declared extremely large scale naval exercises throughout the region, which have drawn concerns that this may actually be the prelude to a military invasion of Taiwan. As of this morning over 90 surface vessels have taken part in maneuvers in the waters surrounding Taiwan, with hundreds of aircraft also participating in exercises to some degree.
AC: So far, the Chinese doctrine of camouflaging drills with legitimate invasion plans is working, and thus it’s too soon to tell if China will indeed invade Taiwan. Considering the events in the Middle East, and the outgoing American administration, it is possible that China means to strike while the iron is hot. However, as previously noted following the rapid-pace of deteriorating events around the world, it would also be in China’s best interest to flex their power in the region, without actually committing to a full-blown war. Also, the typical list of indications that would lead up to invasion plans hasn’t materialized in many ways that one might expect if China were planning to militarily invade Taiwan.
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: Speculation surrounding the recent drone sightings throughout the state has increased following more people becoming aware of the situation. So far, not much information has been made public regarding what is going on. However, due to the attention being placed on these events, various official statements have been made. Governor Phil Murphy has acknowledged the drones (and the dozens of sightings), but hasn’t commented on the aircraft much, except to say that the drones are not a threat to public safety. Yesterday, locals reported that one of the aircraft crashed in Montville, though almost zero details have come to light to confirm this incident, and all reporting on this alleged crash is single-source at the moment and therefore could be a false report. Companies and military contractors have weighed in on the aircraft as well. Picatinny Arsenal, a major military contractor for R&D of various technologies has stated that the devices aren’t related to their research, but they have confirmed sighting 11 drones themselves since November.
This afternoon, various politicians have stated that the drones being observed in New Jersey are suspected to be of Iranian origin, and that they are being launched from a “mothership” that is operating off the coast. More specifically, most of the information being repeated by authorities indicates that no one knows who is operating the craft, or where they come from, but many have been observed arriving and departing from the coast. Additionally, the craft allegedly do not have any signals being transmitted to them, and the lighting onboard the aircraft turns off when the aircraft is approached.
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Analyst Comments: The unidentified “drone” situation in New Jersey has become more concerning as more sightings have occurred. However, these reports are probably related to more people actually being on the lookout now that the story has gone viral. As such, an increase in reports does not always equate to an increase in actual incidents.
Addressing the most concerning detail first (the allegations of Iranian origin), so far nothing that is currently available to the public can be used to verify this at all. In short, the allegation of Iran stationing a drone “mothership” off the New Jersey coastline is very unlikely. However, since we know very little about these aircraft, it would be unwise to discount any theory, even if it’s extraordinarily unlikely.
Despite the online hysteria, all indications suggest these drones are related to official US government activities. For instance, many eyewitness accounts suggest that these alleged “drones” are identical to a comparatively new type of aircraft, the Pitoval Aero. This is a new type of aircraft that is essentially a very large, manned quadcopter. Pivotal obtained a large Air Force contract to conduct military testing on this platform a few months ago. Based on this information (and eyewitness accounts matching the descriptions of eVTOL aircraft), it’s quite likely that these “drone” sightings are actually manned, single-pilot aircraft that are currently being tested by the US government. This could explain how no signals are being emitted by the craft; if it’s manned by a pilot, there would be no need for radio control. Likewise, the lights can be turned off by the pilot with the flick of a switch. This would also explain all of the rather coy explanations by authorities, and the actions of those who are obviously not read-on to the program. The Governor likely knows what these platforms are, along with the various defense contractors that have made rather vague statements about these platforms. Local police and other low-level politicians, not having the need-to-know regarding a classified military program, are rightfully behaving as one would expect not knowing if these devices are a threat or not.
In any case, for those concerned with these aircraft potentially being the result of some sort of hostile action reminiscent of the previous Chinese Spy Balloon incidents, one detail alone can alleviate some fears. All of the “drones” are lighted in compliance with FAA regulations. Though complacency is obviously to be avoided, usually the goal of a super-secret, intelligence collection platform is to remain covert. Likewise, the “alien” theory can be easily dismissed for a variety of reasons, but more logically by the fact that E.T. is unlikely to be familiar with FAA Advisory Circular 20-30B pertaining to Aircraft Position Light and Anticollision Light Installations. Similarly, this small detail is one of the main pieces of evidence pointing to how unlikely Iranian involvement is…Iranian drones aren’t FAA compliant. On the other hand, there’s always the other side of the coin to consider…a really smart adversary might just use FAA compliant lighting as a deception tactic to encourage authorities to let their guard down.
Another point of consideration is the variance of the platforms themselves. Some aircraft are very obviously Pivotal Aero’s or some variance of such. However, other platforms remain unidentified. This could be the result of a few different possibilities. Firstly is obfuscation. If a clandestine government agency wanted to test a new platform in an area, knowing full well that they would be spotted and observed, one might also test a few new platforms at the same time to muddy the water. With multiple new types of platform, it would be easier to get witnesses to contradict each other, and it would divide the attention of observers between multiple platforms. Also, multiple types of airframes being observed can make it easier for authorities to gaslight people by lumping them all in one basket. Now, any government agency can come out and say, “yeah it was just us testing some new Pivotal aircraft, so no big deal”. That statement would seem to explain the aircraft sightings…but in reality, this statement is very manipulative because it negates all of the other aircraft that have been spotted, which are obviously not Pitoval aircraft. During a press conference, by the time a journalist realizes they didn’t actually answer the question, the conference has already moved on. To that end, the drones that are very obviously not Pivotal Aero platforms remain unidentified. It is these platforms that remain the most concerning.
However, even this detail is hard to verify as many people have been reporting “drone” sightings that turn out to be commercial aircraft. Many of the reports line up with known changes to FAA Air Traffic Control corridors. Over the summer, the FAA shifted the control of the Newark airspace sector (where many of the reports originate) from New York to Philadelphia. As this airspace is one of the busiest in the world, it is very likely that vectoring procedures have changed a bit, and people on the ground who are not used to seeing low-flying aircraft may be confusing landing aircraft with the now-viral drone threat. In short, once the initial (and genuine) reports came out, everyone went outside at night and started seeing aircraft being vectored through their area, and mistaken these aircraft for UFOs or drones. This phenomenon has resulted in many false-reports gaining more notoriety than they should, which have in turn complicated the genuine reports of strange aircraft.
Considering all factors, and the possibility that these “drones” are probably military platforms being tested at the moment, one pertinent question remains…why test a super-secret platform in a highly populated area where observers will see it? To that question, there are a few possible answers that vary extremely widely. For one, it could be a message to China and Russia, as in this testing is meant to be observed. The military has hundreds of ultra-secret testing sites where they can test platforms out of the public eye very easily. Especially considering the scale of the incidents (dozens of reports every night in densely populated residential areas), it’s very likely that whatever is going on is intentionally taking place in the view of the public.
Another vastly more sinister possibility is that these platforms are not being tested…but that they are operational, and some exceptionally grave threat is so severe that classified military platforms are needed to respond to the threat (meaning that a threat is so dire, that the government is willing to let the cat out of the bag regarding a secret technology to respond to the threat). Obviously, this theory remains very speculative and impossible to confirm. However, it is a possibility (though a very remote one), so it’s worthy of consideration.
A far more likely possibility that this is that whichever agency is testing these platforms either doesn’t care that they are seen, or they are incompetent when it comes to Operational Security (OPSEC). Normally, this would be a remote possibility as well. However, the past few years of spycraft blunders have really highlighted that federal agencies are not what they used to be. From the US Secret Service failing multiple times at their only job, to the FBI not being able to stop an attack that they didn’t help plan themselves, at the present moment it is not out of the question to posit that some random agency is largely oblivious to the state secrets they are putting on display to the public. On the other hand, this theory loses traction rather quickly based on one detail. Normally, when a super-secret agency and/or military unit gets caught with a breach of OPSEC, or gets caught by bystanders conducting clandestine training, once that story becomes viral the higher-ups shut it down or in effect tell that unit to “cool it”. This has not happened in New Jersey. Right now the Governor’s office is getting annoyed with this issue, local police are increasingly becoming fed up with having to deal with it, and this whole affair is way beyond what one might traditionally see if military testing of hardware is being detected by locals. As such, the balance of probability shifts back in favor of the first theory, that all of this is intended to be shown. All in all, at the present moment, this entire situation smells rather strongly of a military/government operation, though to what end remains up for debate.
More generally, the concern expressed by locals regarding these aircraft is certainly justified. Over the past few years, the trust that citizens place in their government has never been lower. But more crucially, almost no one in government is interested in repairing this relationship. This parallel existence, where government does whatever it wants, without bothering to even acknowledge a citizenry’s national security concerns at all, is causing problems that are interfering with daily life in many cases. Even at the height of the Soviet Union, the Party could only play classical music on the radio for so long before the people became restless. Now, after years of national security concerns ranging from Chinese balloons and aircraft, biological weapons, cyberattacks, and now mysterious drones, the American citizen is owed answers…answers that will not come.
The recent allegations of Iranian involvement likewise do not do anything to improve the lack of trust the American people have in their government. For one, taking the claims of a Congressman seriously for a moment, if Iran did indeed have a “mothership” parked off the New Jersey coast, where are the photos of it? More specifically, where is the data suggesting that the drones are originating from a naval platform? Why are Iranian drones somehow familiar and compliant with the FAA’s regulations?
The idea that the Iranians are behind it could be an attempt to prey on Americans’ knowledge that the last time our airspace was violated, NORAD actively concealed that threat to the homeland. This detail provides an advantage to those who seek to manipulate others; they know that the American people don’t trust any sort of homeland defense, so by blaming the Iranians for something that is well outside the realm of their technical ability to do, despite the contradictory details, will probably be an effective information operation. In short, the majority of people will buy the Iranian involvement story hook, line, and sinker, because the federal government knows that most people are incapable of discernment and understanding the nuance of the differences between the previous Chinese Spy Balloon incident, and what is happening now in New Jersey. What’s actually happening remains unclear, but it’s an utterly brilliant potential for an information operation; the US government gets to spin people up using their own toys, and blame Iran at the same time. Even more specifically, by allowing events to unfold in the way that they have, and knowing that most commentary about these events will not be carefully worded in any way, the powers that be also negate the threat to the homeland.
Indeed, most Americans would probably approve of the US shooting down hostile drones over American soil, justifiably so. After all, when the rubber meets the road when it comes to national defense, a “shoot-first, ask questions later” mentality is appreciated with regards to threats to the homeland. On the one hand, the US government clearly has concealed active threats to the homeland before…but on the other hand that doesn’t automatically translate to hostile action this time, especially since most if not all indications point to these drone sightings being the result of American government activities in the first place. This is not a zero-sum idea; the US government can be incompetent when it comes to preventing attacks on the homeland, but that doesn’t mean that this is what’s happening in this instance.
More broadly, it is even more wise to look at the nature of the incident from the other side of the coin…what emotion is this event intended to result in? What action, as well? If the US government were trying to stoke a war with Iran, would this be something that achieves that effect? Who would stand to gain with a war with Iran, and do those players have a better chance of having this technology than Iran herself? Do the people claiming that it is Iran, also have a history of desiring a war with Iran, or also have a financial interest in encouraging such? Is it more likely for Iran to have done this, or for a malign actor to want us to think that Iran did this?
At the end of the day, this highlights the need for the average person to strive for discernment. Obviously, real threats to the homeland should be investigated thoroughly, but not so thoroughly that the speed and violence of action of a defensive response is lost. On the other hand, when manipulation has been going on for so long that we have a predisposition to be vulnerable to it, seeking the ability to discern the truth is paramount, in some cases more important than a knee-jerk defensive action. When the potential is massive for text-book cases of false flags to be undertaken, discernment may be the only thing that saves a situation from spiraling out of hand. In other words, a malign actor may even conduct an attack on the homeland, with the intent of sparking a knee-jerk reaction. That immediate reflex is what malign actors capitalize on, so even in the wake of what may be even more serious incidents like this one over the next few years, having the ability to stop for a moment and reexamine one’s self and one’s own perspective is more important now, than ever.
Going to war should never be taken lightly, and consequently the details that may lead down that road are always worth a closer examination. Far too many hasten to kill, but very few people apply even more deliberation to finding ways of not killing. Wars are often started on the flimsiest piece of evidence imaginable, and peace rarely comes even with libraries of evidence pointing to war’s futile nature. When all signs point to war, it would be wise to examine who is holding the sign itself.
Analyst: S2A1
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