Danielle DiMartino Booth: The Recession the U.S. Needs is Already Underway

Tom Bodrovics engages in a discussion with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, former Fed Insider, and author of the book "Fed Up."

Danielle stresses the importance of monitoring private sector actions, particularly in 2025 due to recent job losses and the significance of shelter inflation's impact on the Federal Reserve. She highlights an upward trend in unemployment rates and potential recession expectations, but does not believe one is necessary. The conversation touches upon central bankers' confidence bubble and its implications for the current economic climate.

They also delve into commercial real estate markets and the potential repercussions on banks and markets. Serious concerns in this sector have led to double defaults on commercial mortgage-backed securities, with regulators putting pressure on credit rating agencies not to downgrade them.

Tom also inquires about other financial burdens, such as rising unemployment, falling house prices, and mortgage delinquencies, which contribute to significant household financial pressures. Canadian banks have announced larger losses but maintain they are contained. Banks attempt to slow charge-offs by modifying loans and extending terms, but this approach has limitations due to the possibility of re-default.

Danielle concludes the conversation by encouraging listeners to maturely face sacrifices and embrace long-term benefits that come with cutting government waste.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:44 - The Economy & Stats
2:49 - Unemployment & Layoffs
3:38 - Powell & Trump
4:37 - Revisions & Recession
6:25 - Bankruptcies & Rates
8:13 - C.B. Confidence/Hubris
11:22 - Dollar Strength & Trump
14:57 - Inflation Thoughts
16:47 - Housing Confidence
19:38 - Commercial Real Estate
20:57 - Consumers & Banking
22:37 - Safe Assets & Dividends
24:14 - Buy Now Pay Later?
26:42 - 2025 and Gov't Spending
27:49 - Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode
- Danielle emphasizes investors monitor private sector actions amid job losses, shelter inflation, and potential recession concerns.
- Concerns center around Central bankers' 'confidence', commercial real estate risks, and household financial pressures.
- DiMartino cautions listeners that Trump cuts may require short to medium term sacrifices to gain long-term benefits.

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
Website: https://quillintelligence.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.

DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.

Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.

A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.

Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.

DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.