The Wire - December 9, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z December 9, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DANIEL PENNY FOUND NOT GUILTY, BLM PLANNING DEMONSTRATIONS. ISRAEL CONTINUES INVASION OF SYRIA. TURKEY POSSIBLY BEGINS INVASION OF SYRIA. USA CONDUCTS BOMBING CAMPAIGN IN SYRIA.//
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-International Events-
Middle East: Celebrations continue in Damascus as the leadership of the nation remains in question. So far, the most likely candidate to emerge on top is the current leader of HTS, Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani. Jawlani is a highly controversial figure who initially rose to power within al-Qaeda before becoming the leader of the “rebel” group which has seized control of the country. Following the fall, both Israel and the United States have carried out extremely significant deliberate targeting campaigns, which largely appear to have the goal of scorching the earth for any group that might come to power throughout what has become a Failed State.
AC: Israel also continues their ground invasion from the Golan Heights, increasing their “buffer zone” to an unknown degree. Turkey has also been reported to have invaded the northern districts of Syria, likewise carving out however much of Syria they want for themselves, though at the moment reports are mixed as to how much Turkish forces have advanced beyond their pre-2019 incursion limits.
South Korea: Following a vote in Parliament on Saturday, President Yoon has survived his impeachment attempt, and for now will remain the President.
AC: Details regarding last-week’s martial law escapade have become public following inquiries into the matter. Of note, more soldiers than previously known were activated and ordered to seize critical infrastructure, communications facilities, and various political buildings in Seoul. However, initial investigation has revealed that most of the soldiers deliberately took their time in complying with this order, which had the effect of allowing the Parliament the precious time to conduct a vote to nullify the state of martial law.
-HomeFront-
New York: Daniel Penny has been found not guilty on all charges. Immediately upon this announcement, demonstrations began, including a large-scale sit-in of Times Square. BLM leadership has directly and openly called for violent attacks to be carried out on Daniel Penny, and has encouraged BLM activists to conduct other attacks as well.
USA: Various healthcare and/or insurance providers have sharply increased the security practices of senior leadership in the wake of the murder of UnitedHealthCare CEO Brian Thompson. Medica closed their headquarters building “out of an abundance of caution”, and several pharmaceutical companies (such as CVS) have removed all photographs and leadership details from their websites. Many companies have reportedly required employees to sign/agree to some form of morality pledge, or mandated various ethics training sessions. More significantly, many companies have also reported hiring armed security for chief executives.
AC: Though the wicked flee when no one pursues, the efforts by companies to protect their leadership are more indicative of their faith in law enforcement, or more accurately their lack of it.
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Analyst Comments: The U.S. State Department has not commented on what the current standard is for national sovereignty. Currently, one nation in the Middle East has invaded a grand total of three of their neighboring nations, all with active American support. However, in Europe, one nation has invaded one of their neighbors, and the entirety of the United States government has pulled out all of the stops to counter that action. This detail is once again causing questions to be asked that most Americans are not yet ready to accept the answer for. Until that time, when frank discussions can be had without one losing their entire livelihood for asking a question, the status quo will remain.
Regarding the fate of Bashar al-Assad, the Kremlin stated that he and his family successfully escaped and have been granted asylum in Russia, lending credence to the earlier reports last week that he may have secretly flown into Moscow on the night of November 28th. In hindsight, the absence of any sort of real resistance by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) could be explained by Assad fleeing on the 28th. With Syrian military leadership knowing that their leader had absconded already, there would be zero motivation to fight any sort of rebel advance. However all of this remains unconfirmed, with the Kremlin being the only source for determining Assad’s fate, which if he is in hiding, will probably be unconfirmable for some time.
In New York City, unrest operations in the wake of the Daniel Penny verdict are expected, though the severity of which remain debatable and uncertain. As with all BLM activities, external funding from NGOs and powerful benefactors are the single biggest indicator for the level of violence and unrest that will be seen. So far, it’s hard to say how much funding has been allocated for unrest operations. BLM as an organization is ready and willing to mobilize, and have been very vocal about that. However, only time will tell if the crucial external organization will materialize. So far politicians have been quiet, and wealthy investors have also been silent regarding their desires to see violence in the wake of this trial.
At the street level, online chatter indicates many BLM-affiliated individuals are openly stating that they plan to burn down the city and generally cause mayhem. How genuine these threats are is anyone’s guess, but so far most of the outrage has remained speech instead of action. However, as tensions are high, increased vigilance is recommended (particularly on public transit systems) as random attacks could take place from malign actors throughout the city over the next few days. Though largely speculative, this is likely why the final verdict was postponed until Monday; the jury coming to a decision within minutes of arriving in court this morning clearly indicates that they were trying to avoid BLM razing the city over the weekend, and hoping that an early Monday morning verdict would allow time for tensions to ease.
Analyst: S2A1
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