The Wire - November 29, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z November 29, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR IN SYRIA ESCALATES AMID MAJOR REBEL OFFENSIVE. CYBER INCIDENTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE. CEASEFIRE LARGELY HOLDING IN LEBANON, DESPITE BOTH PARTIES CLAIMING VIOLATIONS.//
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-International Events-
Russia: As part of a general summit on security topics in Kazakhstan, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a few interesting remarks regarding Donald Trump. Speaking off-the-cuff, Putin made direct references to Trump’s safety in the context of his multiple assassination attempts, saying: “By the way, in my view, even now he’s not safe. Yes, why? The United States history has seen various developments. But he is a clever and cautious man, I should hope he realizes all that”.
Europe: Danish authorities clarify details regarding a nationwide IT outage yesterday, which reportedly began as a small outage before expanding to include rail, cellular networks, and other telecoms infrastructure which were all affected and offline for hours. AC: This could be related to the initial reports of a similar outage in the Netherlands yesterday; either the initial reports of outages in the Netherlands were incorrect or the outages were minor in scale to those of Denmark, which were more substantial.
Separately, this afternoon a large-scale cyber incident appeared to strike Russia, with many banking services and financial institutions reporting service interruptions. Russian airline companies also reported similar interruptions to ticketing and booking systems.
Georgia: Significant escalations of ongoing domestic tensions emerged overnight as the Prime Minister announced a cessation of Georgia’s bid to join the European Union. This announcement reignited unrest among Georgians along two major perspectives: those who support a more pro-EU, pro-West future for Georgia, and those who wish to pivot away from the EU in favor of Russia.
Lebanon: The ceasefire largely appears to be holding for the moment. However, over the past 24 hours, both sides have claimed the other violated the ceasefire, with limited skirmishes taking place in the border regions of Lebanon. AC: Of course, the general idea of a ceasefire is for both belligerents to stop shooting at each other completely, which has not happened. However, both sides have reduced the intensity of combat operations to largely consist of isolated ambushes (from Hezbollah) and airstrikes (from Israel). Considering the tradition of the region, a reduction in combat intensity (if not an outright cessation of hostilities) might be the best anyone can hope for at the present moment.
Syria: A significant escalation of the war is underway as fighting reaches Aleppo once again. Syrian “rebel” groups have advanced into the city, conducting a large scale offensive (which began a few days ago) toward Aleppo from Idlib. AC: The war in Syria, largely forgotten over the past few years following the 2020 ceasefire agreement, has remained an extremely complex conflict. Over the past few months, one of the many factions at play in the region, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (which evolved from the Jabhat al-Nusra group) has made significant territorial gains, which may now include the fall of Aleppo.
-HomeFront-
USA: This morning employees of the Amazon corporation conducted a labor strike, with employees from around 20 different countries participating. Most of the grievances appear to be centered around wage increases and demanding Amazon to allow workers to unionize. AC: It’s not yet clear as to how this will affect logistics around the world considering that Amazon is not just a retailer of consumer goods, but also a very large provider of data and web services.
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Analyst Comments: The IT issues experienced throughout Europe over the past few weeks (some minor, some substantial) are quite interesting in the context of the two cable-cutting incidents that recently took place in the Baltic Sea. Currently, Denmark and Sweden are leading the investigation into this incident, with Denmark seizing the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3, which is being investigated for deliberately dragging her anchor in an attempt to cut several undersea cables. This has led many to believe that the recent cyber incidents throughout Denmark are linked to their investigation of the cable cuttings.
In the Middle East, it’s too soon to tell how effective the surprise Aleppo offensive will be, however this does appear to be a major turning point in Syria’s history. Though reporting is hard to verify with any confidence, some sources are claiming that Bashar al-Assad is not in Syria at this time, having arrived in Moscow yesterday for a diplomatic state visit. This morning Kremlin spokesman Dmitriy Peskov declined to comment regarding whether or not Assad had secretly flown to Moscow overnight, leading many to believe that this is exactly what happened. Considering the rapid pace of the advance, this could either be exceptionally poor timing on Assad’s part (to be out of his country when his adversaries have launched a major offensive), or it could have been exceptionally good timing on Assad’s part if his intention was to conveniently be outside his country when a coup was taking place. So far, most indications point to the former being more likely than the latter, as Assad would be hard-pressed to flee his country over this offensive, even as surprising as it has been for the regime forces.
Equally difficult to judge the veracity of, various rebel-affiliated media groups are reporting the explosion of handheld radios and cellphones throughout the Syrian Army, echoing the previous clandestine Israeli attacks on Hezbollah.
Analyst: S2A1
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