Chris Vermeulen: We Need a Crash for Miners to Perform

Tom welcomes back Chris Vermeulen, the founder of The Technical Traders, to discuss market trends post-election and the impact of the looming economic debt situation. According to Chris, the small business sector has seen significant growth since Trump's win, as indicated by the Russell 2000's jump. However, he believes that the end of the economic cycle is near and advises investors to consider defensive assets like gold and utilities due to market uncertainty. Chris identifies the current market stage as a potential topping phase, with signs such as resistance levels in gold and energy stocks.

Chris highlights the challenges facing the economy, including an expensive housing market, rising unemployment, and struggling business sales in the S&P 500. Delinquencies for credit cards and commercial real estate mortgages are increasing, signaling a potential looming financial reset. The nervousness within the market is evident through strong performances of the U.S. dollar and gold as safe havens, with the New York Stock Exchange experiencing distribution selling and institutions unloading large shares.

Despite a bullish stance on equities, Chris suggests investing in bonds, the dollar, or cash during market volatility before transitioning to an inverse ETF during a potential bear market. He is excited about Bitcoin's potential upward movement, predicting price targets using Fibonacci extensions and technical analysis, but remains skeptical of it as a long-term investment due to its volatile nature.

Chris expresses his concerns about gold from a cyclical standpoint, acknowledging that it has reached a significant resistance level, which is part of a 15-year cycle pattern. He suggests that the measured move is complete and that gold might consolidate before potentially moving up to around $3000. Chris emphasizes this doesn't mean a downward trend but rather a pause in the uptrend.

Chris also believes that the Russell 2000, representing small caps in the US, serves as an indicator of when money might move out of riskier stocks into safe-havens like gold and the dollar. He anticipates gold will resume its defensive role once the stock market starts to show weakness, making it an attractive investment option again.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:48 - Elections & Markets
3:22 - When the Music Stops
10:40 - Nervous Markets
13:11 - S&P Order Book
15:06 - Trump & Dollar Scenarios
19:03 - Rate Cuts & Recessions
20:47 - Overall Trends & ETFs
22:54 - Bitcoin Chart
28:00 - Gold Technicals
31:41 - Overbought/Sold & Gold
34:46 - Silver Thoughts
36:05 - Next Crisis & Capital
38:19 - Bubbles & Buy The Dip?
42:36 - Market Stages & Strategy
44:33 - Oil Market Concerns
51:14 - 2025 Expectations
52:40 - Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode
- Chris Vermeulen anticipates market uncertainty due to economic debt situation; advises defensive assets like gold and utilities.
- He identifies signs of a potential topping phase, including resistance levels in gold and energy stocks.
- Despite his bullish stance on equities, he suggests investing in bonds, the dollar, or cash during market volatility.

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheTechTraders
Website: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/

Chris Vermeulen is the Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. Chris has been involved in the markets since 1997. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author.

Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders worldwide have taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest, and dozens of other financial websites.