The Wire - November 22, 2024

//The Wire//2200Z November 22, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DETAILS EMERGE FOLLOWING RUSSIA’S MISSILE STRIKE IN UKRAINE. HURRICANE HELENE EFFORTS CONTINUE AS WINTER CONDITIONS SET IN.//
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-International Events-
Europe: Much debate continues regarding the exact type and variant of missile used by Russia in Ukraine. Both the United States and Russia have stated that the missile was an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM), and in a televised address, Vladimir Putin referred to the missile as the “Oreshnik” (probably in reference to the 9M729-Oreshnik IRBM, a new hypersonic missile with at least 6x MIRVs that was unveiled a couple of years ago). The true range of this missile system is unknown, but to be classified as an IRBM and not an ICBM, its maximum range is less than 3,400 miles (if the classification is accurate).
The Pentagon did confirm that Russia communicated their intent to conduct this missile launch via back channels intended to de-escalate the potential for nuclear war. It is not clear as to if the United States in turn informed other NATO allies about this launch (who also possess nuclear weapons and might be concerned about an IRBM launch).
-HomeFront-
North Carolina: The situation regarding the Hurricane Helene recovery efforts remains desperate. Over the past few weeks, volunteer aid has continued to flow into the region to support the families that are without homes due to the flooding damage. Electricity and access to water have been re-established in most places, almost two months after the disaster first struck.
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Analyst Comments: While the details of Russia’s missile launch do matter considerably, by focusing on the technical nature of the attack the larger point gets lost as the debate shifts into a game of semantics. The difference between an ICBM and an IRBM is unlikely to matter that much, as these all are capable of striking targets thousands of miles away with a nuclear payload. Arguing that the exact specific missile launched by Russia can’t technically reach American territory is unlikely to bring about any sort of relief and misses the overall message of this act of strategic deterrence. As far as what comes next, the next play will likely come from the United States/NATO. Generally speaking, the United States could continue the escalations, or decide to let the situation simmer down for a while. Currently, very little sense of urgency or understanding has been conveyed by all defense officials officially involved in this matter; the atmospherics within the Pentagon are largely apathetic toward the significance of this event.
In North Carolina, federal involvement in recovery efforts is challenging to describe. Federal disaster relief efforts do indeed continue and vary widely in their effectiveness. FEMA, for instance, has been quite ineffective at multiple levels of involvement throughout this entire crisis. Of the hundreds of manufactured homes that are earmarked for families in need, the latest reports indicate that very few have been delivered. As a reminder, winter conditions have set in throughout the region, greatly increasing the seriousness of the need for housing. Due to this winter weather, much controversy abounds regarding the activities of Child Protective Services throughout the region, who have reportedly involuntarily taken many children from their families under the guise of not wanting children to have to live in a tent in the winter. Many locals are concerned that the government has the logistics to take their children, but not provide the housing that is quite literally ready and waiting for distribution. Additionally, volunteers have been constructing and distributing pre-made tiny houses as a last ditch effort to get people some sort of shelter for the winter. However, local permitting and building inspection woes have reportedly complicated housing efforts.
Of course, all of these extremely concerning details are largely unconfirmed. Most of the information throughout the region remains anecdotal, as communications has been an ongoing issue. In short, one person might have a horrible experience with aid efforts, but someone just a few yards away (and working in the same exact area) might not have heard of any issues. The synthesis of reporting, and corroboration via multiple sources has been very challenging over the past few weeks of this crisis, so as horrifying as some of these details seem to be, we must understand that more information is needed in most cases to make a definitive judgement call to determine what actually transpired.
Analyst: S2A1
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