Excess deaths publication

Excess mortality across countries in the Western World since the COVID-19 pandemic: ‘Our World in Data’ estimates of January 2020 to December 2022

https://bmjpublichealth.bmj.com/content/2/1/e000282

Our world in data

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline

Human Mortality Database (2024); World Mortality Dataset (2024); Karlinsky and Kobak (2021); Human Mortality Database (2024); World Mortality Database (2024) – processed by Our World in Data

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

Introduction

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic has been substantial,

includes not only deaths from SARS-CoV-2 infection but also deaths related to the indirect effects of the health strategies

Insight into excess death rates in years following WHO’s pandemic declaration is crucial for government leaders and policymakers to evaluate their health crisis policies.

This study explores excess mortality in the Western World from 2020 until 2022.

Although COVID-19 vaccines were provided to guard civilians from suffering morbidity and mortality by the COVID-19 virus, suspected adverse events have been documented as well

Methods

All-cause mortality reports were abstracted for countries using the ‘Our World in Data’ database.

Excess mortality, deviation between the reported number of deaths in a country during a certain week or month, and the expected number of deaths in a country for that period under normal conditions.

Karlinsky and Kobak (2021)

This model uses historical death data in a country from 2015 until 2019 and accounts for seasonal variation and year-to-year trends in mortality.

Results

1 January 2020 until 31 December 2022

The total number of excess deaths in 47 countries of the Western World was 3, 098, 456

Excess mortality was documented in:

41 countries (87%) in 2020

42 countries (89%) in 2021

43 countries (91%) in 2022.

In 2020

(the year of the COVID-19 pandemic onset and implementation of containment measures)

1, 033, 122 excess deaths
(P-score 11.4%)

In 2021

(the year in which both containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines were used to address virus spread and infection)

the highest number of excess deaths was reported:

1, 256, 942 excess deaths
(P-score 13.8%)

In 2022

(when most containment measures were lifted and COVID-19 vaccines were continued)

808, 392 excess deaths (P-score 8.8%).

Conclusions

Excess mortality has remained high in the Western World for three consecutive years,

despite the implementation of containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines.

This raises serious concerns.

Government leaders and policymakers need to thoroughly investigate underlying causes of persistent excess mortality.

More details

Previous research confirmed profound under-reporting of adverse events, including deaths, after immunisation

Consensus is also lacking in the medical community regarding concerns that mRNA vaccines might cause more harm than initially forecasted.

French studies suggest that COVID-19 mRNA vaccines are gene therapy products requiring long-term stringent adverse events monitoring

Although the desired immunisation through vaccination occurs in immune cells, some studies report a broad biodistribution and persistence of mRNA in many organs for weeks.

Batch-dependent heterogeneity in the toxicity of mRNA vaccines was found in Denmark.

Simultaneous onset of excess mortality and COVID-19 vaccination in Germany provides a safety signal warranting further investigation.

Despite these concerns, clinical trial data required to further investigate these associations are not shared with the public.

Autopsies to confirm actual death causes are seldom done.

Governments may be unable to release their death data with detailed stratification by cause,

although this information could help indicate whether COVID-19 infection, indirect effects of containment measures, COVID-19 vaccines or other overlooked factors play an underpinning role.

Expression of concern

https://bmjpublichealth.bmj.com/content/2/1/e000282eoc

Other work by Saskia Mostert

https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/Saskia-Mostert-39309794

Other work by Gertjan Kaspers

https://researchinformation.amsterdamumc.org/en/persons/gerardus-j-l-kaspers