Election Polling and Identity Politics Are a Mug’s Game

First of all, congratulations to President Trump and his supporters. As a non-American, I’m not here to take anybody’s side, except to say that the American public have spoken, and ultimately, American democracy has prevailed allowing the majority opinion to be heard, with President Trump securing the necessary electoral votes as well as winning the popular vote. Some people might not like the result, some people might argue that the American electoral system is flawed, but what system or country is not flawed? There is no perfect system. There will always be winners, and there will always be losers.

Trump obviously pulled off a historic victory. The twice-impeached, criminally-convicted, described as a fascist by his detractors, survivor of two assassination attempts, somehow pulled off this victory. Americans are known for loving the outlaw, but they also love a fighter. The Democrats misread the American people if they thought that all those things would stop the public from voting for him.

But another thing that the Democrats misread, was the importance, or lack thereof, of identity politics. Ms Harris was praised for being the first black female presidential nominee, or the first of South Asian descent, or whatever else, but of course, when it comes to the presidency, those things just don’t matter, nor should they matter. Sure, a certain percentage of people would have voted for her based on those characteristics, but equally, a certain percentage of people are turned off by identity politics. The point is, whatever votes you win by promoting these characteristics, you probably also lose for the exact same reason. I think this election has shown that identity politics is dead, or certainly it’s shown that it doesn’t win you elections. The Democrats have got to stop choosing candidates based on their identity, and instead choose the best candidate, obviously. Playing up their candidate’s racial and gender identity, something that has no bearing on their ability to lead, something the candidate never chose or earnt, just doesn’t work. We just saw that. Americans want a strong leader, a leader that will stand up for the working class, no matter what their skin colour or sex. Pretending otherwise will just lose you elections.

Vermont independent senator, and once presidential hopeful, Bernie Sanders, has blasted the Democratic Party following Kamala Harris’ loss. He said, “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them. First, it was the white working class, and now it is Latino and Black workers as well. While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they’re right.”

Another thing that didn’t work for the Democrats was celebrity endorsements. People aren’t stupid. They’re not going to base their vote on what a Hollywood star says. Sure, there would be a certain percentage of perhaps younger voters who are easily swayed by the likes of say, Taylor Swift, or whoever, but I think in general, people see through all that. They’re not voting based on what a famous person tells them to do. Well, we just saw it. All those celebrity endorsements, where did it get the Democratic Party? Nowhere. The Guardian are even asking, “‘George Clooney – who cares?’ Did celebrity endorsements actually harm Kamala Harris?”. Personally I doubt Taylor Swift would have any influence over say a working-class black man, but what do I know?

And of course, there’s polling. Unfortunately, for many people in the lead-up to this election, they had a lot of faith in election polling. Harris was supposed to be in the lead, right? Right? Just a couple days of ago, PBS News were reporting, “Harris has 4-point lead over Trump”. Here in Australia, the ABC were reporting, “US election ‘oracle’ predicts surprise Kamala Harris win in Iowa”. Obviously, that just didn’t happen. Although they have their uses, polling and predictions are a mug’s game. You’ve got to take them with a grain of salt.

Unsurprisingly, there are people who are very upset with Trump’s win, and of course, they can’t help but bring identity politics into it. For people who call themselves inclusive and progressive, they sure have a whole lot of hate in their hearts.

Anyway, Trump won. I wish him and America well. To the Trump-haters out there, well, he’s only there for a maximum of four more years, so in the grand scheme of things, that’s not too long to wait. Hopefully the Democrats will realise that their obsession with identity politics is not winning them elections. They need to go back to the drawing board and realise that it’s average, working-class Americans, who ultimately decide the election.

MUSIC
Allégro by Emmit Fenn