The Wire - November 6, 2024

//The Wire// 2300Z November 6, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DONALD TRUMP WINS ELECTION. WILDFIRE STRIKES VENTURA COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA. COALITION GOVERNMENT IN GERMANY COLLAPSES.//
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-International Events-
Europe: Climate activists from the Just Stop Oil group vandalized the U.S. Embassy perimeter in London early this morning in an act of protest against Trump’s win.
Germany: Chancellor Scholz’s coalition government collapsed today, following long-standing disputes between the Social Democrats, the Free Democrats, and the Green Party, all three of which had united to form a coalition government in 2021. AC: As of this afternoon, most pundits are expecting a snap election sometime next spring.
Middle East: Protests and demonstrations escalated overnight following PM Netanyahu’s decision to fire Defense Minister Gallant.
-HomeFront-
USA: Donald Trump has won the Presidential election, garnering both the Electoral College and the popular vote. Harris conceded defeat this afternoon. Votes are still being tallied as a handful of hotly-contested Congressional races remain unsettled or well within the margin for a recount.
Gulf Coast: Hurricane Rafael continues to strengthen, obtaining the status of a Category 3 hurricane overnight. Early this morning Rafael made landfall in Cuba, with many weather models differing on potential landfall impacts in the United States.
California: An exceptionally serious wildfire has threatened residential neighborhoods in Ventura County, as very high winds significantly altered fire behavior this morning. The Mountain Fire was spotted this morning on South Mountain, resulting in a rapid blowup throughout the day. Over 1,500 acres have already burned, and most of the areas at immediate risk to safety are residential areas. Consequently, overwhelming efforts have been undertaken throughout the day to evacuate very large residential neighborhoods. Extremely high winds have also restricted the use of aerial fixed-wing firefighting assets, greatly limiting firefighting efforts.
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Analyst Comments: As the final votes are tallied, one major overwhelming observation is the absence of around 18 million votes for Harris that were expected following Biden’s alleged numbers in 2020. In 2024, amid record turnout on both sides, the Democratic candidate won roughly the same amount of votes as in 2016. This has highlighted the not-insignificant discrepancies of the 2020 election like no other. Harris underperformed in every single county that Biden previously “won”, which is probably less of an indicator of voters’ distaste for her, and more of an indicator of the widespread cheating that occurred in 2020. The vote count reaching nowhere near 2020 levels despite spending almost $16 billion dollars this campaign season (the most in American history) speaks volumes.
However, at the end of the day, the truth of all elections remains poignant…roughly half of the nation is unbelievably upset. Even the most underwhelming protester still has the potential to cause chaos if the right funding conditions are met, though in general they usually are more of a threat to themselves than others. Nevertheless, increased situational awareness is strongly recommended over the next few months just in case more deliberately organized demonstration efforts become more common throughout far-left circles. Widespread rioting among these groups is unlikely for the moment, however there’s still plenty of time to fund any opposition movement between now and January…or after the Inauguration when opposition can more effectively be centralized. So far, most riots have been extremely low-level and largely insignificant, with only a few arrests being made in the usual major cities. More broadly, the next few months will be instrumental in determining which lines of effort remain viable for liberals, which should be noted by all conservatives who are celebrating victory. The challenges of the immediate future may be even more significant in some ways than the recent past (especially as complacency sets in), further highlighting that the road ahead will not be easy.
Analyst: S2A1
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