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Battleground Polling: Ultimately Bad News
Ultimate bad news: why do you think they are running IA polling. Nationally Kamala needs to be up nationally 5-6 points, 3 of the polls need to be up. NBC News nationally is tied, Emerson poll tied, yahoo news Harris up 1. 7 national polls that Harris is not past the margin of error in any of them. Hillary did win the popular vote. Could Trump win the popular vote?
MI could be bad for Harris. Trump polls are horrible, because the people think they can steal our data. None of the polls over the margin of error for Harris, 5 basically tied polls. What will be the outcome? Will the SOS be a part of the stolen election? Slotkin got rid of Kamala a long time ago. It was supposed to be a slam dunk for her in MI. There are 3 polls that are basically tied. Slotkin is in panic in MI.
In WI, Harris is not outside the margin of error. 4 polls in a tie. The WI senate the democrat is not outside the margin of error. WI, MI, PA, OH could be 4 republicans in the senate.
AZ, Trump looks to be running away with AZ. Kari Lake is behind in all the polling in AZ. Will AZ split the ticket?
NV is statistically tied.
GA a statistical tie. The only reason GA could be that tight.
In NC, what could be concerning with Trump in NC is that Robinson is down in the polls. Could be dragging the ticket.
PA, 5 polls and a statistical tie. For the Senate, there are 5 polls; only one has the Democrat Casey a tie. McCormick has run a good race in PA but the name Casey is woven in the fabric of the politics of PA. PA will split their ticket.
Harris gets a worrying sign in bellwether PA county according to a poll. PA has 19 electoral votes and has the smallest margin of voter support. Northampton is the bellwether county. Trump has never polled in Northampton county in the positive, he is up 2 points.
IN Philly Mitt Romney never got a vote. Trump in 2016 at 2am, the vote in philly was overcome by Northampton Co. This is why Trump has worked like he has this campaign. Rural county voters will come out in record numbers for Trump. If Trump could come up with a couple thousand votes in the cities.
Kamala is going to be in 4 places in PA today.
The concern is that NC, GA and AZ. They will keep a little crew in these states but the majority of the people will be sent to PA. They shifted their resources into PA. What does the ground game and screw you money equal for Kamala. Saturday they knocked on over 800K doors.
Bob Casey is not campaigning with Kamala in PA. He has run an ad that is running with Trump using the Trump name. John Fetterman has been campaigning for Trump in a roundabout way. He is sounding stronger for Trump than Harris. Josh Shapiro wants to be president and he doesn’t want to wait 8 years behind Kamala.
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