Political Genius Ann Selzer Doesn't Know Liberal Seniors Have An Over Response Bias As In 2016, 2020

Posted • November 3, 2024: When this dropped over the weekend, all you could do was laugh. In Iowa, a ruby-red state, Kamala Harris leapfrogged Donald Trump in the waning days of the 2024 election. That’s like saying Florida is in play or Montana—it’s simply not true. It was rightly criticized, as we would have seen a ramp-up to the flip months ago. You don’t go from Trump+18 to Kamala +3—we’d see that in the polling over the summer. There’s no ambush here. Many were wondering if the poll by Ann Selzer, who is credible, isn’t being skewed by nonresponse bias. When pressed about the crosstabs, Selzer didn’t know what they were, or at the very least, couldn’t read the breakdown when asked about it on Mark Halperin’s show. Political genius Ann Selzer appears confused over what the “R” and “D” letters refer to in polling cross tabs. Beginning to think she doesn’t actually do her own polling.

In 2020, Trump won Kansas seniors by 19, but we had a series of polls saying Kansas could be a nail biter in part because they were off with seniors by double digits. All these numbers showing gangbuster numbers coming from seniors for Kamala is because liberal seniors have an over response bias. Because this is EXACTLY what happened in 2016 and 2020. NYT: “Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.” -- (Clears throat) especially among seniors. (…)

• More at: Townhall - That Iowa Poll Just Took Another Hit
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2024/11/04/that-shock-iowa-poll-just-took-another-hit-n2647208
Rumble: America's Greatest Pollster: "What Does This D Represent, And The R Represent?"
https://rumble.com/v5ltknt-americas-greatest-pollster-what-does-this-d-represent-and-the-r-represent.html