2024 Presidential Map Revealed! 60M COUNTED

Transcript

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Republicans are experiencing
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historically high levels of early voting
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with roughly 60 million ballots cast
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more than a third of the total predicted
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vote should the Harris campaign be
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worried even though Democrats have begun
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to steadily recover as of this writing
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41% of votes have been cast by
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registered Democrats 40% by Republicans
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and 19% by Independence or thirdparty
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voters according to NBC News useful
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early voting tracking tool this
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demonstrates that there is far less
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partisanship in early and absentee
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voting compared to 2020 this election
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cycle represents a significant change
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from 2020 in that Trump and the
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Republican Party actively promote early
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voting people with a high propensity to
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vote who are very involved and cast
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ballots regularly have a significant
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role in this these people are showing a
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clear Republican lean for the first time
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in recent memory and it's possible that
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Republicans will end up with more votes
1:00
than democrats for the first time in the
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majority of our
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lifetimes because of this Dynamic Trump
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may be able to sustain a tiny loss of
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the independent vote while still
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maintaining a respectable lead in the
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National popular vote and the critical
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contest for 270 electoral votes having
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said that let's examine the Electoral
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College map by looking at early vote
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data polling and demographic patterns to
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see where we are I will not go into
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every safe state for each Contender
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since I want to keep things moving
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according to preliminary vote tallies
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Republicans are anticipated to have a
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commanding lead in the following states
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Montana Idaho Wyoming Utah and Alaska
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which were formerly held by former
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president Trump the Great Plains are
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home to the following states North and
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South Dakota Nebraska at the state level
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Kansas in the first and third districts
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and Oklahoma
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Appalachia is home to West Virginia
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Kentucky and Indiana while the south is
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represented by historically Republican
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states like Missouri Arkansas Louisiana
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Mississippi Alabama Tennessee and South
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Carolina not only did these states vote
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overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 they
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haven't cast a blue ballot since 2008
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Republicans are currently winning by
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large percentages of 15 to 40 points in
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all of these states according to early
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voting results they have 125 electoral
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votes between them when it comes to
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Kamala Harris the Democrats have a
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commanding early advantage in a number
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of traditionally blue States Hawaii
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Oregon California and Washington make up
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the Pacific coast only two non-coastal
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states Illinois and Colorado are
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reliably blue as you head east Joe Biden
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won all of these states by a minimum of
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15 points in 2020 furthermore these
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states have not voted for a republican
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in nearly 40 years the remaining
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Democratic strongholds are located in
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the Northeast New York Vermont
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Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut
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Delaware Maryland and Washington
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D once again it's hardly surprising that
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Democrats are soaring to enormous leads
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in the early voting here all all kamla
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Harris now has 190 electoral votes
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thanks to the States while 17 remain on
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the fence neither candidate has a real
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chance of winning the majority of these
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remaining States both Iowa and Ohio
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states that Trump won by eight points in
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2016 and 2020 are likely to remain in
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his grasp the second congressional
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district of Maine which is among the
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most rural oldest and mostly white in
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the nation and could perhaps lean even
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farther to the right this cycle is also
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one that he should hold on to when it
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comes to New Mexico kamla Harris should
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have no problem winning notably with a
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Biden support of 11 points compared to
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13.5 in nearby Colorado the 2020
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campaign represented the first instance
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since
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1968 in which New Mexico voted farther
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to the right than its neighbor to the
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South since New Mexico is the nation's
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most Hispanic State and Colorado is one
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of the states heading to the left at the
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fastest rate I predict that they will
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continue to differ this cycle it is
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anticipated that the Hispanic vote would
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maintain its General Trend toward the
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right in this cycle for the time being
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though I'm classifying New Mexico as a
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likely Blue State in Maine Harris is
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also very popular in contrast to the
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solid First District the Statewide race
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is probably going blue in 2020 Biden won
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Maine by nine points and in 2024 she
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appears to be winning by at least as
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much
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there are now just 12 States left with a
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combined electoral vote value of
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191 these are the areas where voters
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will most certainly cast their ballots
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more people are paying attention to
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Nevada's early vote totals than any
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other states total so far this election
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year normally we would be talking about
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the Democratic firewall and whether or
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not Republicans could make up ground on
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Election Day by now still Republicans
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had a four-point lead over Democrats
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with 39% of ballots returned being
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Republican and 35% being Democratic out
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of a total of over 850,000 ballots cast
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or around 60% of the overall turnout in
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2020 this disparity is the most
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worrisome trend for Harris's campaign
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thus far albeit it has shrunk somewhat
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in the past few days Biden was able to
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secure a 2.4% victory in Nevada in 2020
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thanks to the state's final early vote
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tally which showed a fourpoint
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democratic advantage and totaled 1.3
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million ballots on the other hand
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compared to national patterns Nevada has
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been steadily moving toward the
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Republican Party even though Biden won
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the national popular vote by a larger
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margin in 2020 he maintained a 2.4% lead
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in Nevada much like Hillary Clinton did
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in
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2016 the Republican party took advantage
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of this trend in 2022 and won the
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governor's mansion according to the most
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recent polls Harris is ahead of Trump by
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the slimmest of margins just
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0.1% the 538 item poll average indicates
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that with the election so tight
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Democrats will have to cross their
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fingers that the Republicans may lose
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ground in the early voting lead they
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have over the Republicans in the coming
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week unless he does this Trump may be
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well positioned to win in Nevada and
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other Battlegrounds as well
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the state of Nevada is now leaning
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Republican with Trump having a slim
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lead next stop Arizona for yet another
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Southwest race with intense
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competition in 2020 Biden was narrowly
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defeated in Arizona the second closest
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state by a
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hair Maricopa County which includes the
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Phoenix Metro region has been rapidly
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growing and becoming more diverse which
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contributed to his victory a small
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margin of victory for Democrats was
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achieved in the county and the state as
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a whole due to the high voting
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participation rates among Hispanics and
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voters with college degrees among the
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1.7 million ballots cast early in person
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and by mailin Republicans presently have
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42% of the vote compared to 34% for
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Democrats indicating that Republicans
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are poised for another good showing
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since our last report the pro-
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Republican lean has grown by two points
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when looking at the 2.8 million early
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ballots that were returned in the 2020
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election Republicans were ahead of
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Democrats by Five Points compared to a
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three-point lead in
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2020 considering Biden's razor thin 0.3%
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margin of victory in 2020 this change is
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noteworthy the Democratic party could
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lose Arizona if they make even a small
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mistake supporting this pattern is
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polling data which shows that Trump has
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a 2.2% lead lead over Harris in the
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538 average since Biden's withdrawal
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Trump has maintained even or higher
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polling numbers than Harris in Arizona
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the one key Battleground state where he
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was previously trailing however
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returning to our map Arizona will be
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tilted toward the Republican side it is
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projected that Trump will win both
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States baring a significant increase in
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the Democratic party's early voting
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participation Texas completes the
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southwestern quadrant and is the second
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largest electoral reward on the map with
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40 votes as of the end of the first week
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of early voting Texas had the highest
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number of ballots cast with over 7
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million with 51% of registered
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Republicans and 37% of Democrats casting
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ballots the Republican lead has shrunk
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to just 14 points but it remains
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substantial reflecting on 2020 once more
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the Republican Victor in Texas that year
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was trumps by a razor thin margin of
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5.6% over 9.5 million people cast
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ballots early or absentee and the
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Republican Party had a 17-point
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Advantage with around 2third of the vote
9:45
cast the Democrats are if anything doing
9:48
better than expected at this moment in
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time Trump leads Harris by almost seven
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points in the running average of the
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polls suggesting that he will exceed his
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2020 advantage
10:00
the Democratic party may have reached a
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ceiling in Texas in 2020 and will have a
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hard time improving upon that result
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this cycle because to the continued
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Republican Trend among Hispanic voters
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therefore we will classify Texas as
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leaning Republican based on these
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criteria Florida is located in the
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southeastern United States and it is one
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of several states where over 6 million
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ballots have been returned in the first
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few days of early voting with 44% of the
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votes to 34% for the Democrats
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Republicans have a commanding advantage
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of 10 points in this race even though
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Trump won Florida by 3.5 points in 2020
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Democrats ended up with more than 9
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million ballots cast giving them a
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onepoint lead in the final early tally
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this is another worrying indication for
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Cala
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Harris since 20120 Republicans in
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Florida have registered much more voters
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than Democrats causing the former to Str
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in recent years since then Florida has
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also seen a dramatic rightward shift
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most notably in 2022 during the
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localized Red Wave when Senator Marco
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Rubio and Governor Ron de santis were
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reelected with enormous margins of
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Victory each by more than 15 points
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Trump might secure Florida for the GOP
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in 2024 with the largest margin of
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victory in the Sunshine State in decades
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according to polls our map now shows CH
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Florida and Texas as leaning Republican
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due to these patterns Joe Biden won
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Georgia by a razor thin margin of 0.2%
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in 2020 turning the peach state blue for
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the first time in 30 years the following
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state is Georgia which was the closest
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race that year high voter turnout among
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black voters tilted the state ever so
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slightly in favor of Biden and the fast
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expansion and diversity of Atlanta were
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major factors in his victory here there
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may be racial depolarization this cycle
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as more and more Black and Hispanic
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voters are leaning toward Trump in
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Georgia where Democrats depend on high
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turnout and big majorities among black
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voters recent polling cross tabs from
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mid October to the end of the month show
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Trump up by more than 20 points among
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black voters compared to
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2020 this might present a significant
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challenge for the party with almost 3.5
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million ballots cast in person or by
12:28
mail Republicans are currently leading
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by three points 48% to
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45% and early voting in Georgia is also
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breaking records although the margin has
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shrunk somewhat it should be remembered
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that out of 4 million ballots cast early
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in 2020 Republicans managed to outnumber
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Democrats by eight points even while the
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Democratic tally may be skewed because
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of the initial flood of democratic
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leaning mailin ballots Harris's campaign
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is seeing Georgia as a key early voting
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Battleground even though we'll be
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keeping a careful eye on these data over
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the next week Georgia is still leaning
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Republican on our map for the time being
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North Carolina is the next stop on the
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path up the Southeast coast Democrats
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will need to establish a strong early
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voting lead here to prevent Trump from
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easily winning the election in rural
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Republican dominated
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counties among the 3.3 million ballots
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cast so far Republicans have a onepoint
13:29
lead over Democrats who are once again
13:32
underperforming in 2020 with almost 4.5
13:36
million votes cast Democrats had a
13:39
five-point lead over Republicans going
13:41
into election day nonetheless Trump
13:44
ended up winning the state by more than
13:46
a point Democrats are once again failing
13:49
to meet their 2020 expectations in a
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state where a large turnout is crucial
13:54
to their chances of winning with North
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Carolina joining other Sunbelt states in
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the Republican tilt category on our map
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Trump currently has a 1.1% lead against
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Harris in the 538 average with six
14:08
states remaining Trump's electoral vote
14:10
total Rises to
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268 just short of the crucial
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threshold let's move on to the Midwest
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where Harris and Waltz both hail from
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the home state of Harris Tim Waltz Joe
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Biden won Minnesota by seven points in
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2020 with 133% of early voters leaning
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toward the Democratic candidate with
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almost 1 million votes cast and counted
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Democrats now have a 23-point lead over
14:40
Republicans since early in-person
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ballots have begun to replace the
14:44
initial waves of mailin votes this lead
14:47
has shrunk slightly we still have
14:49
Minnesota marked as a lean state for
14:51
Harris and Waltz on our election map
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Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania the
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wimp States will once again be pivotal
15:00
in this race and we can now zero in on
15:03
them from 1988 until 2016 the states
15:08
voted in lockstep with the Democrats but
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in 2016 they swung to Trump giving him
15:14
the 270 votes he needed to win but in
15:17
2020 they all turned around and
15:19
supported Biden again Paving the way for
15:22
him to become president both candidates
15:25
chances of reaching 270 in the 2024
15:28
election are highly dependent on their
15:30
performance in at least one of these
15:32
states if Trump were to win all four Sun
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Bel States like he did here kamla Harris
15:38
may still get 270 electoral votes by
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sweeping the Rust Belt states thus she
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could need all three among the three
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states in the Upper Midwest Wisconsin is
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often considered to have the greatest
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Republican leanings both in terms of
15:54
population and political makeup because
15:57
of its larger and more rural population
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Wisconsin has leaned further to the
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right than Pennsylvania and Michigan in
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the last several election cycles and its
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white workingclass voters have been
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particularly receptive to Trump's
16:10
message despite trailing Clinton by
16:13
approximately 6.5 points and only
16:16
winning by
16:17
0.7% in both 2016 and 2020 Trump
16:21
significantly surpassed the final
16:23
polling averages in this region also
16:27
Biden's lead shrank to the same 0.7%
16:30
margin in 2020s final tally according to
16:33
the average of 538 polls Harris is now
16:37
leading by
16:40
0.7% as in-person early voting has
16:43
continued the Democratic lead in the
16:45
early voting process has been shrinking
16:48
the Democrats are now leading the
16:49
Republicans by 11 points with more than
16:52
1 million ballots cast it would be
16:55
interesting to observe if Republicans
16:57
can achieve the same level of particip a
16:59
or perhaps higher than in 2020 when they
17:02
were outnumbered by democrats by eight
17:04
points in the roughly 2 million early
17:07
votes a notable early tendency meanwhile
17:10
is the disproportionately low attendance
17:12
among minorities compared to whites with
17:15
college
17:16
degrees this might work in favor of
17:18
Harris in the most populous of the key
17:20
Battleground States Wisconsin at this
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time Wisconsin's position on the map is
17:26
completely up in the air on the other
17:29
hand I've been more bullish on Harris's
17:31
prospects in Michigan than the whole
17:32
picture suggests in terms of basic Blu
17:36
Michigan stands Out Among the three wimp
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States in 2020 Biden won it by nearly
17:43
three points and since then Democrats
17:45
have demonstrated good performance in
17:47
contests that are closer to the ballot
17:50
with an exact 1% lead among key
17:52
Battlegrounds Harris continues to
17:54
dominate according to the most recent
17:57
538 polling average with nearly 2.5
18:01
million early votes in Democrats now
18:04
lead by 5 Points 47% to 42% a notable
18:09
decrease from the 14o margin saw in our
18:12
previous update nevertheless among the
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3.2 million early and mailin ballots
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cast in 2020 for Biden's victory in
18:20
Michigan Republicans actually
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outnumbered Democrats by two points
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these facts lead me to believe that
18:27
Harris will be elected as the state's
18:29
leaning Democrat the only remaining
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Battleground state with 19 electoral
18:34
votes is Pennsylvania according to Nate
18:37
Silver's most recent prediction which
18:40
gives Pennsylvania a 34% chance of
18:42
deciding the election this highlights
18:45
the importance of the state the chances
18:47
of Harris and Trump receiving 270
18:51
electoral votes go to about 90% if they
18:54
are able to win this state at this time
18:57
Trump is leading by a razor thin 0.4%
19:00
Edge in the polls and neither Contender
19:03
has held a lead of more than 1% since
19:06
early September the Keystone State is a
19:09
true red blue swing state there have
19:12
been 1.6 million ballots returned
19:15
according to early voting figures voters
19:18
in Pennsylvania who would like to cast a
19:20
ballot by mail must visit the county
19:22
clerk's office to do so as the state
19:24
does not offer conventional early voting
19:27
it was anticipated that that these votes
19:29
would skew Democratic and the current
19:31
breakdown is 58% Democrats and 32%
19:35
Republicans for a margin of 26 points on
19:39
the other hand the Democratic lead is
19:42
far lower than it was in 2020 when it
19:44
was 65% to 24% among 2.5 million ballots
19:49
of this sort in 2020 the lead was 31
19:53
points approximately 1 million votes
19:56
were in the Democratic column four years
19:57
ago nearly half of that is still there
20:00
today after all votes are cast and
20:03
tallied this pattern indicates that
20:05
Republicans might end up with a higher
20:07
overall return rate than Democrats in
20:11
light of this change I'm updating the
20:13
chart to show that Trump now has 287
20:16
electoral votes since Pennsylvania is
20:19
now tilting Republican this leaves New
20:22
Hampshire Virginia and Nebraska's second
20:25
congressional district all of which
20:27
Trend more toward the Democratic party
20:29
as secondary Battlegrounds with 13
20:32
electoral votes cast and nearly 2
20:34
million ballots returned the Democrats
20:36
continue to hold a commanding lead of
20:38
50% to 39% or a d plus 11 Edge Biden
20:43
received a 10-point victory in Virginia
20:45
in 2020 the biggest Democratic margin
20:47
since FDR in
20:49
1944 early voting accounted for over
20:52
half of the total votes cast in 2020 and
20:54
had an eight-point lean toward the
20:56
Democrats after taking into
20:58
consideration the initial inflating of
21:00
mailin ballots Democrats still have a
21:03
good chance of winning in Harris's
21:05
likely blue column I'll put Virginia the
21:08
granite state follows in 2016 Clinton
21:12
barely edged out Trump by half a point
21:14
in this state but in 2020 the state went
21:17
strongly for Biden giving him a
21:19
seven-point victory only around 60,000
21:22
ballots were cast in the early voting
21:25
with a slight five-point Advantage for
21:27
the Democrats although the sample size
21:29
is modest the average of 538 polls
21:33
reveals that Harris has a lead of more
21:35
than five points over Trump according to
21:38
these signs New Hampshire will remain a
21:40
lean Blue State finally the Statewide
21:43
winner in Maine and the winner in
21:45
Nebraska both receive two electoral
21:47
votes but each congressional district
21:50
receives one vote from Maine the second
21:53
district of Nebraska which includes the
21:55
Omaha Metropolitan Area is racial
21:58
diverse mostly Urban and has a high
22:01
percentage of college
22:03
graduates however we do not yet have
22:05
early vote data that is particular to
22:08
this District it leans farther to the
22:10
left this time and voted for Biden by
22:13
6.5 points at this time I'm leaning
22:16
toward Harris's likely blue District in
22:19
Nebraska with 287 electoral votes to
22:22
kamla Harris's 241 and 10 Wisconsin
22:26
votes still up for grabs Donald Trump
22:29
appears to be well positioned to claim
22:31
the presidency according to an analysis
22:33
of the early votes cast thus far it
22:37
looks like we're heading for a very
22:39
close finish as election day draws near
22:42
I will be providing additional updates
22:44
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