The Wire - October 14, 2024

//The Wire//2200Z October 14, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CHINA LAUNCHES LARGE-SCALE MILITARY DRILLS AROUND TAIWAN. PENTAGON DEPLOYS THAAD BATTERY TO ISRAEL. NARRATIVE SHAPING OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH REGARDS TO HELENE RECOVERY EFFORTS.//
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-International Events-
Far East: Yesterday China announced large scale military drills in the vicinity of Taiwan. As of this morning, 25x PLA aircraft and 7x PLAN vessels have continued operating in the waters surrounding Taiwan. AC: This is a fairly standard drill for this time of year, as China always tends to launch large scale military drills around Taiwan on or around Taiwanese political holidays. In this case, the National Day of the Republic of China (which commemorates the Wuchang Uprising) was on October 10th (usually called “Double Ten Day” for this reason).
Middle East: The Pentagon announced the deployment of at least one THAAD missile battery to Israel, to support the long-range missile defenses already in place. AC: This includes the deployment of conventional US soldiers, which could be as many as 100 troops in total. Additionally, the United States only has seven THAAD batteries globally (most of which are already deployed), so this deployment is probably going to stretch resources even thinner than before.
Throughout the region, most western diplomatic missions have continued to urge their citizens to depart Lebanon, while commercial aviation options remain open. Commercial flights have ebbed and flowed in the region in response to increases in combat operations, but civilian airliners are continuing to make flights in and out of Beirut as they are able.
-HomeFront-
Southeast: Indications and warnings are mounting of growing dissent throughout western North Carolina with regards to the Hurricane Helene recovery efforts. Since last week, the situation throughout much of the region has deteriorated as logistical problems remain challenging.
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Analyst Comments: In some parts of western NC, locals have been able to get by with stockpiled food and water, but after a prolonged period of time, supplies begin to run dry. This highlights the major problems of logistical needs, and confirms the urgency which was needed immediately after the storm. Many people did not understand why gargantuan logistical efforts were needed immediately after the storm…but the trickle-down effects that have emerged over the past week have shed some light on this urgency.
Consequently, in some areas tensions are mounting. More specifically, some agencies and military units have reportedly become concerned with locals opposing their presence in their communities. Some military units have reportedly stopped conducting operations in some areas due to this opposition, citing safety concerns. On the other hand, locals have complained that these safety concerns are unfounded, and that reports of “militias” forming to combat soldiers are all false, and that some military units are using these unfounded concerns as an excuse to not deploy their resources. At present, there are only one or two reports of locals trying to target officials, which are largely based around routine crime and not organized “militia” activity. As such, entities responding to this crisis are not going to be able to lean on the “undisclosed threat” claims for too long; at some point the citizenry is going to wonder why, of all times and places, government agencies feel the need to conceal “militia” behavior in a very politically conservative area, when threats from this demographic usually are overblown in every situation. This common-sense detail is the biggest indicator of these “militia” reports being false. If they were true, any alleged “militia” member would be hunted down by authorities with the urgency as if they had walked around inside a public building four years ago.
In any case, the slow-down or procrastination of humanitarian aid within the disaster zone will continue to be detrimental as cold weather begins to present more challenges and as many people throughout western North Carolina are now living in tents or otherwise improvised structures.
Analyst: S2A1
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