Strategic Shifts in Southern Ukraine – Post Capture of Ugledar

With the fall of Ugledar, Ukrainian forces have lost a crucial natural outpost that allowed them to monitor Russian movements effectively. This shift puts Russia in the driver’s seat, especially in controlling Ukrainian operations south of the H5 road, in the Maryinsk and Kurakhove districts. Now that Russia holds the initiative in this region, it is clear that their advances will accelerate. This will ultimately strengthen their position, with a key goal being to link up with forces near Pokrovsk by year’s end. Once this happens, Russia will be in a prime position to prepare for the next phase: taking Velyka Novosilka.

Key Takeaways from Ugledar’s Fall

Losing Ugledar has created a significant vulnerability for Ukraine. The area’s high ground was critical for observing Russian movements and staging rapid countermeasures. Now, with Russia in control, Ukrainian forces are at a strategic disadvantage. Here’s what I believe will unfold next:

Russian Control of Movements: Without the vantage point of Ugledar, Ukrainian forces have lost key observation capabilities. The Russians now have the upper hand, able to monitor Ukrainian troop concentrations and preempt any counteroffensive. This will disrupt Ukrainian logistics, reduce their reaction time, and make it far harder for them to regroup or push back in the south.

Accelerated Russian Push: With Ugledar firmly under control, Russian forces can push ahead more aggressively. Their goal to link up with Pokrovsk is likely to be achieved before the year ends. The capture of Maryinka and Kurakhove is central to this, and once those districts are secured, the path to consolidating southern Donetsk will be open for Russia.

Increased Territorial Pressure: The fallout of losing Ugledar is that Ukraine will be forced to pull back even further. The Russians are poised to expand their buffer zone south of the H5 road, positioning themselves to disrupt Ukrainian defenses on a broader scale. Ukraine’s forces are already stretched, and this additional pressure will make it even harder for them to mount a credible counteroffensive. Russian forces will likely exploit this weakness to the fullest.

Looking Forward: Russian Operations Through Year-End and Beyond

I expect Russia to make rapid gains in this region through the remainder of the year. The immediate focus will be on:

Securing key logistics corridors: By taking full control of areas like Maryinka and Kurakhove, Russia will ensure smoother supply lines for its forces and reduce the risk of a Ukrainian resurgence.

Expanding the operational buffer: With Ugledar as a forward base, Russian forces will aim to push Ukrainian troops further away from the H5 road, expanding the zone under Russian control and giving them more breathing room to prepare for future offensives.

Consolidation before winter: By year-end, I expect Russia will have completed its link-up with the forces near Pokrovsk. Once that is secured, preparations will begin for a larger push toward Velyka Novosilka. Russia’s strategy will likely involve consolidating its positions over the winter, with an eye toward launching a decisive strike on Velyka Novosilka in early 2025.

Conclusion: A Major Shift in Southern Ukraine

In my view, the capture of Ugledar marks a critical shift in the conflict. The loss of this natural outpost has not only weakened Ukrainian monitoring capabilities but has also allowed Russia to dictate the pace of operations south of the H5 road. The upcoming months will see Russia fully capitalize on this, tightening their grip on southern Donetsk and preparing for a broader offensive aimed at Velyka Novosilka. With each new advance, Ukraine’s ability to defend this sector will be further diminished, setting the stage for larger territorial gains by Russian forces.