The Wire - October 2, 2024

//The Wire//2130Z October 2, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRAN STRIKES ISRAEL WITH BALLISTIC MISSILES. MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN TEL AVIV. CONTROVERSY CONTINUES TO MOUNT IN SOUTHEASTERN DISASTER ZONE.//
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-International Events-
Middle East: Last night, multiple Iranian ballistic missiles stuck various targets in Israel. Video footage from people on the ground indicate dozens (possibly hundreds) of missiles were launched, many of which were intercepted by David’s Sling defense systems. So far, the casualty count appears to be minimal, though official numbers may change over time. Initial Israeli media reporting indicates that Iran targeted military sites, not civilian centers.
Nearly simultaneously, a mass shooting was reported in Tel Aviv, resulting in 10 fatalities and 20 wounded so far. AC: Due to the Iranian strikes, the details of this developing mass shooting event have been hard to verify with any confidence.
Far East: This morning a WWII era bomb exploded at Miyazaki Airport in southwestern Japan. The bomb, which had been dropped during WWII, cratered a taxiway and caused the diversion and/or delay of dozens of flights. Local authorities have confirmed there is no further threat to aviation and normal aviation operations will commence on Thursday.
-HomeFront-
United States: Bank of America customers reported widespread issues this afternoon, resulting in either a total outage of banking systems or their accounts showing a zero balance. AC: No word has been provided regarding the cause of the outage.
Southeast: Recovery efforts continue, despite federal involvement. Reports continue to mount regarding federal agencies discouraging people from helping, or outright threatening citizens with arrest for trying to aid disaster victims. There have been some limited reports of federal aid agencies confiscating disaster supplies from volunteer groups. FEMA resources, largely unseen throughout the affected disaster zone, are allegedly being deployed at the moment. However, this afternoon DHS Secretary Mayorkas stated that while FEMA funding is adequate for now, FEMA lacks the required resources and funding to manage federal emergencies that may need management by a federal agency this hurricane season.
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Analyst Comments: With any disaster, there are always those with a good heart that try to help, but inevitably make the situation worse. These situations are quite rare, but do sometimes happen. Similar situation with those who try to volunteer but end up needing rescue themselves…the nuance of various situations on the ground inevitably results in conflict that is not exactly indicative of a top-down policy sometimes.
However, overall the atmospherics on the ground in this situation appear to be more nefarious in nature than the standard tensions that arise during any disaster. The prevailing story throughout some areas is that federal (and even some local) agencies don’t want citizens to help, because the government is in charge…but these same agencies don’t do anything at all, or at minimum are way over their heads with regards to the scale of the response needed. Roads are being closed to only “official” vehicle traffic, despite well-prepared and skilled citizens that are more than capable of providing aid more professionally and efficiently than formalized agencies. Similar situation with private pilots who can outfly any National Guard asset any day of the week, and yet are somehow held to higher standards and formalization than even the policing agencies themselves. With this disaster, the red tape has begun to entangle even private volunteer efforts, with many volunteers learning valuable lessons regarding how little the government values their efforts, and as most clearly demonstrated during the Maui crisis, are sometimes outright adversarial.
The reasons for this vary widely, but are probably more related to egos and personalities on the ground; many local authorities to not want to be embarrassed by untrained and uncoordinated volunteers who are doing a better job than them, and possibly hurting funding sources later on once citizens come to the realization that they recovered from an apocalyptic disaster largely without government help, and sometimes with that government “help” hurting them more than anything else. When providing volunteer disaster aid in a professional, safe, and by-the-book way is prosecuted, and when saving lives is a crime, the reality of the logical conclusions that are reached is very sobering. This is of course, a rarity, but the tensions on the ground are real, and probably will get worse once more windbreakers and badges get involved as federal “help” moves in and takes over. It will be important for responding volunteers to understand this challenging and unique dynamic as recovery efforts continue, and roll with the adversarial attitudes as they come.
In the Middle East, very clearly western media reports were accurate regarding the impending Iranian strike, serving as a reminder that most mainstream media sources are a mouthpiece for sharing classified information so that the government retains plausible deniability. The Russians probably learned of the impending strike the night before, as rumors at the time suggested Putin’s motorcade was rapidly on his way to a security council meeting. In retrospect, this was probably related to the impending Iranian strikes. Israeli forces also knew of the attack several hours in advance, and the U.S. Embassy just so happened to issue a shelter-in-place order a few hours before the missiles struck their targets. This advanced warning likely resulted in the extremely low casualty count; so far most reports suggest the mass shooting in Tel Aviv had more casualties than the hundreds of Iranian missiles combined.
As American forces (mostly aerial assets) have slowly been trickled into the region over the past few weeks, it’s possible that the wider war everyone has been expecting just started, and could include the involvement of American forces to some degree. This is evidenced by reports of 82nd Airborne troops being denied leave to take care of their families during the disaster in the southeast, because they are on standby to deploy to Israel (or more likely, Cyprus).
Most logically, this will probably begin with the targeting of Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq, and probably Lebanon as well over the next few days. These are easy targets (both logistically and politically). Right now, it’s uncertain as to if the United States will be involved in the Israeli counterattacks that surely will take place within Iran very soon, but since American forces are in the region to support such operations, this remains a likely assessment at this time.
Analyst: S2A1
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