The Wire Special Report - October 1, 2024

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//The Wire//October 1, 2024//
//SPECIAL REPORT//
//BLUF: DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING POTENTIAL FOREIGN THREATS TO TRUMP.//
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-HomeFront-
USA: Over the past few days, various claims have been alleged on social media regarding current plots by nationstate actors to assassinate Donald Trump.1 In short, claims have been made that the primary means of targeting Trump would be via Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADs) being used to shoot down his aircraft. Further claims have been made that 9 MANPADs are already within the United States, having been successfully smuggled in over the southern U.S. border.2
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Analyst Comments: While the potential for surface-to-air missiles being in the possession of malign actors within the United States is exceptionally concerning, the real-world threat this poses is not entirely clear to the American public. It is normally unwise to place such heavy weight on unconfirmed rumor, and already the media reporting on this information is highly circular and unconfirmable. However considering the gravity of recent events, closer examination is warranted. Even though this initial information is nowhere near confirmed, this scenario is a classic example of a low-probability, high-consequence event when viewed through the lens of Risk Management.3 Using a classic Risk Management matrix, the likelihood of a MANPAD being used to down a civilian airliner in the United States is exceptionally low, but if it were to happen, the consequences would be catastrophic. Depending on one’s analysis, this means that the overall risk can vary from Medium to High, and thus warranting some level of mitigation efforts. In short, even if this recent information is completely false, the following considerations remain relevant in the event that a similar threat materializes in the future. Now is as good a time as any to consider the implications of what has been a very substantial (but largely ignored) threat for some time.
The History
A brief recap of recent events may provide better fidelity on the situation, and may provide more clarity with regards to the larger picture:
September 16: In a press conference, acting US Secret Service Director Rowe states that: “There could be another geopolitical event that could put the United States into a kinetic conflict or some other issue, that may result in additional responsibilities and protectees of the Secret Service”.4
September 18: A weapons cache was discovered on the southern US border, south of Ajo, Arizona. The cache reportedly contained RPGs and explosives.5
September 19: Reports surface regarding Congress improving Continuity of Governance plans, specifically in the event of a mass casualty event that results in the death of many elected officials simultaneously.6
September 20: USSS Director Rowe reiterates his previous mysterious statement that: “We have to be able to have the personnel, the assets, and be able to spread those out for an indefinite period of time in the event that another situation, a geopolitical conflict, or some other tension, requires us to do so.”7
September 24: The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) briefs Trump (and his campaign staff) on threats to his life.8
September 24: Almost immediately after this briefing, Trump posts on social media, accusing Iran directly of trying to assassinate him.9
September 26: Various unconfirmed reports emerge via whistleblowers allegedly affiliated with Customs and Border Patrol forces, alleging the entry of MANPADs into the United States via an official port of entry in New Mexico.1,2
September 30: Donald Trump arrived in Valdosta, GA for a campaign event in a small, unmarked aircraft…despite Valdosta Regional Airport being well within the limits of Trump’s Boeing 757, which landed at this exact same airport for a similar campaign event in 2016.10,11
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
First and foremost, a closer examination of the sources of this intelligence must be undertaken, along with the causal links that are implied based on the events of the past few weeks.
Following Trump’s seemingly nonsensical post on social media regarding Iranian threats, the puzzle pieces begin to come together. It is very likely that Trump was briefed on this “threat” a few days ago and immediately posted about it on social media. Though pure speculation, this MANPAD threat is probably what Trump was briefed on. However, many unknowns remain; the exact contents of the briefing remain classified and thus unknown to the public. Trump could have been briefed on something else entirely, there’s no way for the public to know. After all, Trump’s campaign was allegedly “hacked” around the same time frame, so the September 24th briefing could be related to that currently-developing incident. However, most official statements or remarks have indicated that the September 24th briefing was related to a physical threat to Trump, thus the loose correlation with these reports of the MANPAD threat.
Another detail to consider is the source itself…the very same legacy intelligence agencies that have been targeting Trump for years. The initial MANPAD threat specifically allegedly comes from within Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) sources, not the big intelligence agencies. However, it’s exceptionally unlikely for this intelligence to originate with CBP; it probably leaked from CBP learning about the situation since they were allegedly involved at some point since the missiles allegedly came in via an official port of entry. The extremely specific nature of these allegations are also cause for more attention, and likely means that a legacy intelligence agency (probably CIA) is really the true originating source of this intelligence.
The person who physically briefed Trump on September 24th was probably Avril Haines, the current Director of National Intelligence.12 She is a former protégé of John Brennan13, and is 100% committed to continuing the Patriot Act era of James Clapper-esque14 national intelligence priorities. This detail alone should cause serious questions regarding the sourcing and accuracy of this intelligence, full stop. This story leaking could actually be anything from election interference, to warmongering, to (more nefariously) the CIA laying the groundwork for further assassination attempts. However speculative these possibilities may be, the very real unspoken truth is that if Trump’s plane were to be shot down right now, the instinctive gut-reaction from most Americans would probably be “the CIA did it”.15 On the other hand, giving the national intelligence agencies as much leeway as possible, if Iran was indeed convinced that Trump WILL start a war with them, they would be motivated to ensure that Trump never makes it into office. The chief rebuttal to this theory is that Trump was already in office, and didn’t start a war with Iran during his pervious four-year term. Of course the situation has changed dramatically since then, however it is challenging to argue that Iran’s motivations to target Trump are so radically different now than they were four years ago (when he was still a wild-card), especially to the point of literally launching a missile at his plane. This is one hard sell of an assessment considering that President Biden, currently in office, has resulted in the worst relations with Iran in decades.
What’s far more likely is that if malign actors are indeed invested in trafficking arms into the United States for a potential first-strike from within the American homeland (which is a VERY likely possibility), it’s probably not specifically to target Trump. China, for instance, has been purchasing large parcels of land via shady shell corporations…parcels of land that just so happen to be immediately adjacent to major military bases that often include airfields16. China (or even Russia) stashing a few crates of MANPADs (and/or drones) within the United States for strategic targeting purposes in the event of war makes vastly more sense than Iran attempting to carry out such a high-profile terror attack at the current time.
However, taking the specific allegations as they have been made, and assuming for the moment that the intelligence is accurate and Iranian agents are indeed legitimately trying to target Trump with no assistance from federal intelligence agencies, other difficulties arise that assist in assessing this threat more accurately.
American components, Russian components, all made in Taiwan!
The technical nature of MANPADs, along with their real-world use at this exact moment in Ukraine can also shed some light on details that help assess the real threat these allegations pose. MANPADs, even old and busted models from the Soviet area, are absolutely lethal on the battlefield in certain situations.17 Being man-portable, all MANPADs are shoulder-fired. The gunner has to hoist the missile onto his shoulder, activate the battery, visually observe the target aircraft, and (depending on the model) obtain a “lock” onto the heat signature of the aircraft.
One of the most complicating factors for the use of MANPADs by insurgents is simply not having all of the pieces needed to assemble the missile. Unlike in Hollywood, users can’t simply take a missile out of a case, and pull the trigger to fire it. Assembly is usually needed of the Launch Tube, the Gripstock, the Battery Coolant Unit (BCU) or the Thermal Battery, and sometimes an Ejection Motor (depending on the model of missile).18 Throughout the history of the Global War on Terror (GWOT), most insurgents throughout the Middle East had a hard time getting all of the parts needed to assemble a fully functional system.18–20 However, this historical trend is unlikely to matter much with regards to threat assessment, since any Iranian smuggling operation that is dedicated to such a high-profile attack would undoubtedly have all of the required hardware to make it work. And considering that insurgents throughout the Middle East have used MANPADs to successfully engage dozens of commercial airliners in the past21,22, it is always wise to assume the worst case scenario of the insurgent having a brand new, shiny, MANPAD with all of the parts and training to use it.
Another complicating factor is the activation of the Battery Coolant Unit (BCU) or the Thermal Battery.18 Depending on the model of missile, the MANPAD will have one or the other, but in either case a BCU or Thermal Battery will be needed to spin up the missile for launch. Once the gunner activates the BCU or the Thermal Battery, they are fully committed to the attack since either option lasts a very short period of time.19,22,23 Once it’s activated, it can’t be re-activated…a new one is needed.20,24,25
Additional complications arise from the technical range of most MANPAD systems…it’s usually very short. MANPADs can’t be used to target aircraft flying at cruising altitude; they are only effective for low-flying aircraft such as helicopters or fixed-wing aircraft that are taking off or landing.22,23,26
In short, a lot of things have to line up perfectly for a MANPAD gunner to successfully engage an aircraft. However, once again, most counter-MANPAD doctrine comes to us from the battlefield…a commercial airliner poses very few of these limitations and difficulties for the gunner. Perhaps most importantly, all of these considerations are nowhere near a secret; all of these details have been very well known by the public (and Hollywood) for decades.23,24,26–28
Paging Doctor Jihad
Examining the technical nature of most MANPADs, another point of contention lies with the smuggling of the MANPADs themselves. From exploding pagers in Beirut, to guns with GPS trackers in the stocks (courtesy of the ATF’s Fast and Furious operation), it would be exceptionally unwise to assume that all of these MANPADs are indeed functional. The global proliferation of MANPADS has been historically common in some of the more far-flung warzones around the world. However, due to the implications of such devastating weapons, governments around the world have been more earnestly invested in tracking the proliferation of such arms. In other words, a low-level gang member is astronomically unlikely to roll around with a Strela-2; these serious arms are simply not something that is proliferated at the same rate as cheap handguns in inner cities. Though somewhat ironically, this remains an increasing possibility in the future thanks to the mass proliferation of arms due to the Ukrainian War.17 More directly, if the ATF is willing and able to conceal tracking devices inside firearms they traffic over the US border over 18 years ago29, and if Israel (who’s major adversary is Iran) is able to do something similar today with consumer-grade electronics30, logical conclusions can be reached quite easily.
These are, however, assumptions based purely on the current events as available to the public….assumptions that anyone would be hard-pressed to gamble on.
Countermeasures
Continuing the technical examination of most MANPADs, we arrive at the final point worthy of mention…countermeasures. Most aircraft used to transport High-Value Individuals (HVIs) such as Trump possess countermeasure systems that effectively nullify the threats posed by most MANPADs. Even some commercial aircraft, from FedEx31 to El Al Airlines32 passenger aircraft are well known to often be equipped with measures to counter Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) fired from a MANPAD, so it would not be out of the question for Trump’s fleet of aircraft to be similarly equipped. However, this is not a certainty as Trump does not travel onboard official government aircraft, and therefore this is likely a good question to raise in Congress in the closed-door hearings that have undoubtedly already begun concerning this issue.
Of course, relying on chaff, flares, or optical countermeasures is a last resort…saying “it’s okay, the chaff caused the missile to break off” is akin to saying “it’s okay, the shooter missed”.
Cause for Concern
Considering all of the above factors, where does the real threat lie? If the DNI is telling the truth, and if 9 MANPADs are within the United States, and if they have all the parts, and if they are in the possession of at least several Iranian teams, and if each team is able to not get caught, this poses major concerns for the average American public.
If fact, if this exceptionally-specific intelligence is so solid, one has to wonder as to why the FAA hasn’t issued a national airspace closure over this? Granted, closing the entire country’s airspace would be a gargantuan task, and likely would have untold impacts. However, one might consider that the shoot-down of potentially 9 civilian airliners might be a little bit more important. In fact, one would be hard pressed to find a situation more fitting for grounding all aircraft throughout the United States…if this intelligence is real, this is quite literally the most textbook “clear and present danger” to the United States that has ever been known to be a threat by the average American before the attack. Only 9/11 surpasses the magnitude of potentially 9 civilian airliners being shot down, however no average, everyday American citizen knew the 9/11 attacks were going to take place beforehand…now, in this situation, we do. And many Americans are likely to wonder why we’re being told about this via a standard news line item; this is the kind of event that should stop the nation until it’s resolved.
We should expect mobilization of a gargantuan order that makes the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan look like a cake walk, just to mitigate this potential domestic threat. Stock markets should be halting trading, schools canceled, and all military bases go to FPCON DELTA (the highest alert level), along with all leave being canceled and all reservists activated. And every single major airport in the country should have increased security to ensure that terrorists can’t get access to targeting positions for aircraft on short-final, or more dangerously, on the initial climb out of the airport.
The FAA should be grounding every single aircraft, and let every single federal agency pull out all the stops, kicking in the doors of every single terrorist that the DHS knowingly let over the border33, until every single missile is accounted for. If this threat is serious, and our government is serious about protecting the American homeland, all of this should be in progress.
Considering how easy it would be to mitigate this threat nearly completely, one has to wonder why none of this has happened yet. There are a few plausible explanations for this:
1- The MANPAD threat could be false. This is the simplest and most obvious explanation for the inaction, and due to essentially zero confirmation/verification of this information by the public this option should always be considered right up front. The leading counterargument to this is the overall trend of strategic moves being made within government, that align with the severity of this situation. The past few weeks have resulted in non-stop indications and warnings of an event just like this, so the simplest explanation is that this is the scenario that has triggered the questionable moves/statements by politicians over the past few weeks, to include Trump being observed to travel in smaller, more low-profile aircraft than normal.
2- Government agencies could be conducting clandestine operations to mitigate the threat, and thus are not inclined to tell the American people about ongoing operations. The main counterargument to this is now that whistleblowers have come forward and the cat is out of the bag, there’s very little downside to publicly confirming the threat.
3- Similarly, the US government could be aware of the threat, and are only considering low-profile mitigation efforts so as not to scare the public. The counterargument to this is that the United States government has never once expressed a desire to not scare the public. On the contrary, mountains are frequently made of molehills for other more trivial threats. Even the Chinese military assets over U.S. soil were almost certainly not concealed to prevent undue panic, but probably to allow the Chinese assets to finish their intelligence collection mission.
4- Perhaps most nefariously, malign actors within the national intelligence services are setting the stage for future, highly-questionable events.
Solutions
Currently, there are only 503 commercial airports in the United States that serve the types of commercial traffic that are vulnerable to MANPAD threats. Of these, only 37 are considered to be Class B airports (i.e. major commercial airports). Even considering the ‘503’ figure, only a handful routinely host VIP travel. As such, the DoD and DHS are dealing with a finite number of potential threat locations. As a reminder, roughly 26,000 National Guard soldiers34 were deployed for the inauguration of Joe Biden in January of 2021, almost all of which stood around and did absolutely nothing. Only a fraction of these forces would be needed to provide security for major US airports until this threat is mitigated. Of course, this would still be a major mobilization of historical records domestically, but considering the alternative is to let malign actors shoot down a civilian airliner, many might consider the inconveniences of deploying limited numbers of troops to be exactly within the mission set of the entire US military. After all, if this mission is beyond the scope and capability of the US military, there’s quite literally zero point in having a military force at all. Considering the billions of dollars that were just sent to two foreign nations last week for their defense (ironically, to include missile defenses for both of these countries), the DoD might consider a reexamination of their funding priorities to include the defense of the United States. Again, defending the American homeland is an expectation outside the bounds of all federal agencies at this point, so it’s understandable as to why these mitigation efforts haven’t happened (nor are likely to happen).
Donald Trump allegedly being the primary target is largely irrelevant on the strategic level; the shootdown of any aircraft whatsoever within American airspace is one of the most serious events that this nation can face. This alleged intelligence also brings more clarity to the recent actions in Congress to ensure more resilient continuity of governance in the event of a decapitation strike: Congress probably got this intelligence a couple of weeks ago in closed-door sessions, and is now probably concerned with their own aircraft being shot down. Even just considering the number of high-ranking officials that fly via commercial aircraft (that do NOT have MANPAD countermeasures), one can easily see why Congress has suddenly become interested in these apocalyptic scenarios. Congress is very likely sold on the veracity of this intel, solely based on their own actions. However, since politicians do not often understand the ways of warfare or wartime emergencies, it would be understandable for Congress to simply not know what to do with the gravity of this situation. All politicians operate under the assumption that political means are always possible, and likewise are usually not equipped to respond to situations that a subcommittee can’t solve.
The Department of Defense, however, should know exactly what to do. Along with the Department of Homeland Security. It costs absolutely nothing for a base commander anywhere in the United States to take their own survival more seriously, and increase real combat readiness…not just checking boxes on routine inventory paperwork and ensuring that everyone wears their PT belt. Low-level military leadership, the backbone of the military, also have the means, motive, and opportunity to get serious about the threats that are already within the American homeland. If you are a soldier in the United States Armed Forces, absolutely nothing is preventing you from taking your job seriously. Show up on time, ready to learn, and carry out your job as best you can. If you are in a billet where this is not an option, find something useful to do. There is zero excuse for sloth or “I can’t” any longer. If you are an NCO or an officer in any service branch, it costs you very little to prepare your people. For almost everyone else, the most feasible solution is a combination of remaining aware and preparing for major incidents as best one can, especially since such a high-profile event will inevitably not simply be a one-an-done incident, but a prelude to much more kinetic actions. Even if the MANPAD threat is inaccurate, slightly overexaggerated, or completely false altogether, this is a very solid reminder of the seriousness and deliberation that should be considered moving forward. Failing to plan, is planning to fail. And due to the nature of this threat, which echoes the history of even 9/11, the first time this threat may be taken seriously is after a catastrophe takes place that could easily have been prevented.

Bibliography
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Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

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