Ukraine Has Lost: A Grim Reality

As difficult as it may be to accept, the truth is Ukraine has lost this war. The realities on the ground paint a picture that cannot be ignored, and the assessment made by John Mearsheimer, a renowned political realist, underscores the brutal reality that Ukraine is not just losing — it is doomed.

Outnumbered and Outgunned
The balance of power has decisively shifted in Russia's favor. As Mearsheimer points out, Ukraine is significantly outnumbered, both in terms of manpower and weaponry. Reports suggest that in some key areas along the front, Ukrainian forces are outnumbered eight to one in personnel and ten to one in artillery. These staggering ratios are not just numbers — they represent a stark reality that makes Ukraine’s position untenable. Artillery, responsible for 80% of the casualties in this war, overwhelmingly favors Russia, and Ukraine simply cannot compete.

Failed Offensives, Bleak Future
Ukraine’s much-publicized counteroffensive in the summer of 2023 was a colossal failure. Even when Ukraine was in a relatively better position than it is today, it was unable to regain lost ground. As Mearsheimer details, their forces were “cut to doll rags” in a failed attempt to take the offensive, and future attempts look even more hopeless. With every passing day, Ukraine’s ability to hold even a defensive position diminishes, as the imbalance between the two sides grows.

A War Without Air Power
One crucial point that often gets overlooked is air power. Ukraine has virtually no air force, while Russia commands a formidable air presence. This has allowed Russia to systematically destroy critical infrastructure in Ukraine, with energy facilities being primary targets. The coming winter will only exacerbate the hardships for Ukraine’s civilian population as their energy supplies dwindle, and Russia's dominance in the skies continues to wreak havoc. Ukraine's inability to contest the airspace is a devastating strategic weakness.

Western Fantasies and Diplomatic Failures
The West, especially the United States, continues to present a narrative that suggests Ukraine can turn the tide. However, as Mearsheimer bluntly states, this is “living in a dream world.” The U.S. and its allies did not just fail to prevent this war; they played a key role in provoking it. Diplomatic efforts that could have prevented the conflict were disregarded. Putin made overtures to both NATO and the U.S. in late 2021 to negotiate a peaceful resolution, yet the West refused to engage meaningfully. Even after the war began, the U.S. and the UK intervened to stop peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia that could have potentially ended the conflict early in 2022.

The Hard Truth
Ukraine's current position is untenable, and the prospects for change are bleak. The imbalance in manpower, artillery, and air power, combined with the destruction of critical infrastructure, leaves Ukraine in an increasingly desperate situation. The West’s continued promises of support and diplomatic engagement may offer some temporary hope, but they will not change the underlying facts. Ukraine is outmatched and overwhelmed, and the outcome of this war seems tragically inevitable.

As harsh as it may sound, it is time to accept that Ukraine has lost and begin to consider what comes next.