Gallup Drops Stunner Of A Poll For Trump That Could Be The Game Changer

Posted • September 26, 2024: We've been seeing some big polls over the past few days that have had good news for former President Donald Trump: the NYT/Siena, Emerson, and even the Quinnipiac poll (which tends to lean left). NYT and Emerson were looking at swing states with Trump ahead. Quinnipiac looked at the national vote and had Trump up by 1 point with likely voters. There was also the Gallup poll that found Trump was more popular than Kamala Harris, the Teamster polls, and the other unions' members also showing support for Trump. I think the more people see of Harris and the more she talks, the more people realize that they don't want to sign aboard that train — that she's basically a vacuous pantsuit. She talks about being a "middle-class kid" and "dreams and aspirations." But what she doesn't talk about is specifics that make any sense. I think more and more people are starting to realize that about her if they didn't know it before. The Stephanie Ruhle interview proved it; even with a softball interviewer, Kamala still couldn't cut it.

Plus, this is one of those rare times when you can judge what both have done in office. That comparison does not go well for Kamala Harris. People remember they had it better under Trump. They don't like what has happened under Biden-Harris, so it's pretty hard to paint herself as a "change agent" or a "new way forward" when she's the one there now who has messed everything up. There's the ever-present question: Why didn't you do it now, while you've been in office? When you're running away from yourself and your own record, it tends not to come across well. Scott Jennings: "[Kamala's] got a major problem — it's Joe Biden, and the fact she's his Vice President. In our CNN survey yesterday, 51% of registered voters said that Trump had a successful presidency, only 37% said the same about Biden and Harris… she's effectively running on a continuation of the same. People don't like the same and they remember Trump better."

Now there's a new Gallup poll that may just be the game if it bears out. Guy Benson at our sister site, Townhall, asked if it might be the "best poll yet." And it's easy to see why he might ask that question, given the history of the poll. Here's what it says on party ID lean. 👀👀 Gallup: First time Republicans have led on Party ID in Q3 of presidential year. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYRL9MPWcAAvlss?format=jpg&name=medium -- This is the first time Republicans have led in Quarter 3 in a presidential year going back to 1992. For comparison, let's check how much that party ID lean tracks with the final numbers in the vote in presidential years. Gallup track record is pretty scarily accurate on the national popular vote by tracking PARTY ID/LEAN... and look at what they predict for this election:

🔵 2008: D+8 (Obama+7.2)
🔵 2012: D+4 (Obama+3.9)
🔵 2016: D+3 (Clinton+2.1)
🔵 2020: D+5 (Biden+4.5)
🔴 2024: R+3 (?)

Just remember: 2016 was a Clinton+2.1 environment and Trump swept the battlegrounds. What happens if he outright wins the popular vote? Now, if that were to bear out, that would be pretty stunning — Trump would end up 2.5 percent ahead in the popular vote following that pattern. That would most likely mean a massive Electoral College victory. At the very least, add it to what's starting to look like a lot of good indicators moving in Trump's direction.

RedState: Gallup Drops Stunner of a Poll for Trump That Could be the Game Changer
https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2024/09/26/gallup-poll-is-not-good-for-kamala-n2179802