The Wire - September 17, 2024

//The Wire//2000Z September 17, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CLANDESTINE ISRAELI OPERATION RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD INJURIES IN LEBANON.//
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-International Events-
Middle East: This morning Israeli forces enacted a covert sabotage plan that has apparently been in the works for some time. This morning, thousands of communications devices exploded throughout Lebanon at exactly the same time. So far, initial reporting from Lebanon indicates roughly 2,800 Lebanese citizens have been injured and/or killed as a result of the coordinated targeting effort (though this number is probably overinflated). The number of Hezbollah militants wounded in this operation is not known, with official statements by Hezbollah being inconclusive so far.
AC: Details are hard to verify, however this probably a modernized version of Project ELDEST SON (and/or the subsequent spin-off versions of this operation that surely came after the Vietnam era). Though largely speculation at present, this was likely a plan many weeks in the making. Israel probably concealed explosives inside pagers with the intention of covertly distributing these communications devices among Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon. Then, once the devices made their way through Hezbollah’s networks and allegedly into the hands of Hezbollah operatives (over a period of time), the explosives in the pagers could be detonated remotely all at the same exact moment. Of note, initial media speculation has centered around Israel “hacking” ordinary electronic devices in some way, resulting in the batteries overheating and exploding. This is almost certainly NOT the case; considering the remains of the devices found and posted on social media (along with the historical context) it’s overwhelmingly likely that the devices in question were tampered with and packed with a small amount of military-grade explosives. So far, most of the pagers that have been noted to explode are models that only contain user-replaceable alkaline AA or AAA batteries anyway, which are not explosive.
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Analyst Comments: The recent Israeli operations in Lebanon have very strongly indicated the existence and/or continuation of some of the most clandestine military operations in world history. In years past, insurgents in the GWOT era from Iraq to Afghanistan eventually got wise to the vulnerabilities posed by their cellphones. Now, thanks to Israel, the cat is out of the bag and insurgents around the world know that they not only have to worry about their electronic devices being tracked, but them remotely exploding as well. However, this is not entirely an unknown tactic, similar efforts have been noted to be in use by both sides during the Ukrainian War…discarded AK-47 magazines booby-trapped with explosives that are set to detonate when the magazine is inserted into a weapon and the first round fired, have been discovered on the eastern front. Some of which allegedly allowed for the remote detonation of the device, not simply being triggered by the carelessness of the person who picked it up. Though in Ukraine, both sides using the same weapons systems is likely a complicating factor for this method.
This tradecraft is not without extreme risk; gambling on an explosively-rigged device making it into the hands of an insurgent is risky. After all, a device may end up in the hands of an innocent civilian, as may have happened in at least some cases this morning in Lebanon. However, as Israel does not abide by most western doctrine when it comes to the concept of Civilian Casualties (CIVCAS) within the realm of kinetic targeting, this was likely not a factor considered during the planning phases of this clandestine operation. As there is only enough void space inside these specific consumer grade electronics for a small charge, this method usually is not effective in killing the target, but rather maiming them. This is supported by the casualty figures released so far by Hezbollah, out of the 2,800 casualties, only 8 have been fatalities, and only 200 are in critical condition. The overwhelming majority of the casualties were injured, lending credence to the theory that this wasn’t so much a decapitation strike attempt, as an attempt to use unconventional warfare tactics to maim as many people and/or Hezbollah fighters as possible, and tying up local medical resources.
Of note, most of the devices that were detonated appear to be old-model pagers. It’s not clear as to if these devices were actually in use by Hezbollah; the only sources claiming such are those originating from Israel. More generally though, this is one of the main problems with clandestine tactics such as this…positive identification (PID) of the intended target. Of course, Israel is extremely unlikely to share the intelligence that indicated these devices being used by Hezbollah, however this is an extremely important distinction that must be addressed considering that in Lebanon, pagers such as the models targeted are mostly in use by medical professionals in the course of their work. So the question remains: Did Israel intentionally target Hezbollah militants, or did they tamper with a random pallet of pagers, and hoped to get one or two militants just by happenstance? The other side of the fence has provided some fidelity; Hezbollah officials have stated that many of their operatives were indeed injured by the operation, lending credence to Israeli intelligence. However, with almost 3,000 casualties and counting, right now it’s impossible to determine if this was a legitimate targeted operation, or mass and indiscriminate targeting that just so happened to maim a few dozen/hundred Hezbollah militants.
The United Nations response to this will be very telling, as their employees also use these types of pagers at the varying medical missions they have set up around the world. On the other hand, if Israel can prove that their explosive devices only made it into the hands of militants, yet a lot of medical professionals were wounded, someone has some explaining to do. Either way, this incident leaves many questions all around. Of note, the American University of Beirut Medical Center released a statement this morning, confirming that they replaced their own medical paging system a few months ago, and fully switched over to the new system two weeks ago. So far, this institution is the only facility where their employees haven’t been targeted with exploding pagers. The facility has categorically denied any link to this event, calling the coincidental timing of their new system largely centering around “baseless accusations”.
All things considered however, and as this targeting method is inherently a comparatively low-CDE targeting effort (when applied correctly, and with oversight), the biggest risk is the world discovering this tradecraft. Thousands of pagers all exploding on the wearer’s belt at exactly the same time, with the official Israeli response being “no comment” pretty much gives up the secret for even the layperson. Within a few hours of the blasts, Hezbollah representatives got wise to what was going on, and issued orders for all militants to discard their communications devices.
The forensic analysis of the debris from the thousands of blasts is without question going to be examined for traces of explosives, and the sheer number of devices that did explode indicates that there probably are many devices that did not explode or otherwise malfunctioned, thus leaving even more forensic evidence for analysis if they are discovered. Additionally, it’s highly likely that not every single device that was deployed, was detonated. Some may have been set on a timer, or otherwise intended to detonate at a later time to provide maximum shock and awe during the recovery efforts.
The reliance on such clandestine and grisly tradecraft in a situation that reveals and compromises the program itself signals the desperation of using this tactic. In warfare, it’s generally ill-advised for a secret tradecraft tactic to end up on the front-page news, as it reduces the possibility of that trick ever being used again successfully. More significantly, relying on a targeting tactic that gives up the advantage of secrecy could be an indication of impending Israeli operations in Lebanon, though this is nowhere near a certainty at this time. The follow-on effects of this operation could be psychological in nature, and indented to make every insurgent eye their phone/radio with suspicion. However, considering the cost-benefit analysis of this theory, what’s far more likely is that this is a prelude to more substantial targeting efforts by Israel throughout Lebanon. This is most strongly evidenced by the sheer scale of this operation.
What this may look like is anyone’s guess at the present time; Hezbollah will without question launch some sort of response, however this new (or at least new to them) tactic will probably cause confusion among Hezbollah leadership for a few more days. The military value of Hezbollah either having no communications due to devices exploding, or militants fearing that might happen, is invaluable. Thus supporting the theory that this is a prelude to a larger operation; the confusion and lack of comms among Hezbollah and Lebanese officials would be too good of an opportunity to let slip by as far as Israel is concerned.
More broadly, this latest escalation of the war is likely to cause concern internationally, as the precedent has now been set in the public sphere for this kind of operation to be carried out. In the political arena, this probably will cause problems arising from the use of unconventional warfare tactics at scale, by a nation that is simultaneously linking their entire combat operation to combating those using very similar unconventional warfare tactics. In short, if Israel is very boldly using the same tactics they themselves call “terrorism”, this might result in complications in the international arena.
Analyst: S2A1
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