Flawed Predictions Are Being Used To Falsely Empower Campaigns

A college professor named Allan Lichtman has been called the Nostradamus of American politics for accurately predicting nearly every presidential race for 20 years. He’s made his prediction for this year. Mike Papantonio & Farron Cousins discuss more.

Link - https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/05/historian-allan-lichtman-2024-election-prediction/75082875007/

Link - https://www.mediaite.com/politics/former-obama-advisor-says-democrats-are-too-confident-very-possible-trump-would-win-election-if-it-was-held-today/

Order a copy of Mike Papantonio's new book at https://www.amazon.com/Suspicious-Activity-Thriller-Mike-Papantonio-ebook/dp/B0C7RL3BQ4

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*This transcript was generated by a third-party transcription software company, so please excuse any typos.

A college professor named Allan Lichtman has been called the Nostradamus of American politics for accurately predicting nearly every presidential race for 20 years. He's made his predictions this year. I've got Farron Cousins with me to talk about those predictions. Farron, it looks like Nate Silver, who's calling a 63% chance of Trump winning versus Lichtman. Who do you believe? If you go back and look, there's a lot of flaws in both of 'em.
There really are. And I think at this point, everybody is kind of throwing everything at the wall and let's see what sticks. Lichtman, of course, oh, he's got nine out of the last 10, and he only missed the one because it was Bush v Gore, which was a super weird situation anyway. But if you look at the regular polls, a normal person would say, okay, yes, it looks like Harris is gonna win. Seems like a safe bet. So I don't know that you need the 13 keys if you're just looking at what the numbers say, okay, this would work. But Nate Silver is looking more than just the numbers on the surface, not that he has been a hundred percent correct either.
He hasn't been.
And in 2020 and 2016, he was way off the mark. Everybody was way off the mark. But he's looking more at the swing states. Forget these national polls. National polls do not tell us much at all. This race is probably gonna come down five or six states.
Yeah. I was surprised to see the numbers spread though for Nate Silver.
That was massive.
I've never seen him do that before. He's been off three or four points, but here, 63% chance of Trump winning. And he says that, first of all, he does it with his mathematical data. He's a guy that predicts baseball outcomes and basketball, and they do love him in Vegas. I mean, they really do love Nate Silver in Vegas. Now, the professor on the other hand says, I've had these 13 keys. We've talked about these keys in the past before, and they're legitimate. They make perfect sense. But I think what we have to do is avoid all this. As you were talking about earlier, you've even got astrologers that are coming in, you know, the Moon is lining up with Venus, and that's telling me that this candidate. At some point, don't you have to say no? All that matters is what's happening at the ballot box. Right. Go out and vote. Don't be influenced by any of this stuff.
Exactly. And you're right, because we don't just have the professors or the numbers people, the psychics are out there making their predictions. The bookies in Vegas.
Bookies are big on this one, man.
They really are. And it's kind of gone back and forth. At one point, Trump was obviously way ahead, then Harris, now I think it's swinging back.
Now Trump is back.
Yeah. So, a lot of people want to make a lot of money off of it, but really nobody knows. This is all a guessing game until those votes start coming in November 5th. But right now, even with the polls, even if you look at these polls, okay, well, she's ahead in four swing states. He's ahead in the other four swing states. But they're all within a margin of error. Even the national polls. And I don't know, it seems odd that everything is so close and I do think the media to a degree, pushes a horse race.
Oh, it is.
Because if either one of these people was running away with it right now, nobody's tuning into anything.
Look, don't believe Nate Silver, don't believe Lichtman, go out and vote. That's the answer here. And if you want to read some astrology for the hell of it, read some astrology or talk to a psychic. It doesn't make any difference. What makes a difference is showing up at the polls. Now, a lot of times you'll see, we've talked about this.