The Dark Truth Behind Rivian Stock Revealed

In this episode, I dive deep into the financials and stock performance of Rivian Automotive Inc., a company that has garnered significant attention in the electric vehicle market. My analysis begins with a technical overview of Rivian's stock chart, where I express my belief that the stock is likely a short at this point due to its negative earnings and a consistent downtrend.

I discuss the company's financial health, highlighting that Rivian is currently losing money, with a staggering net income loss of $5 billion. I point out that while they do have positive revenue growth, their cost of goods sold exceeds their revenue by $1 billion, leading to a gross loss. I also examine their operating income, which averages a negative $1.5 billion per quarter, and their total debt of $6 billion, raising concerns about their long-term viability.

Throughout the episode, I emphasize the importance of understanding a company's financials before investing, noting that Rivian's liabilities outweigh its assets significantly. I question the credibility of their claimed book value and express skepticism about their cash flow situation, which shows substantial losses across various activities.

As I analyze Rivian's market position, I express doubt about the future of electric vehicles, suggesting that the market is not expanding as anticipated. I argue that the limited use case for electric vehicles, combined with public resistance to them, poses a significant challenge for Rivian and similar companies. I also touch on the competitive landscape, noting that Tesla remains the dominant player in the electric vehicle space.

Towards the end of the episode, I discuss Rivian's recent joint venture with Volkswagen, aimed at boosting production of their upcoming R2 SUV. While I acknowledge this as potentially exciting news, I remain skeptical about the financial implications and the company's ability to turn a profit.

I conclude by reiterating my stance that Rivian appears to be on a path toward bankruptcy, given its financial struggles and the broader market conditions. I challenge listeners to consider the risks of investing in a company that consistently loses money and lacks a clear path to profitability. Ultimately, I encourage prudent investment practices and caution against buying into companies that do not demonstrate solid financial fundamentals.

00:00:00 - Introduction to Rivian Analysis
00:00:13 - Current Stock Sentiment: Shorting Rivian
00:00:35 - Earnings and Financial Overview
00:01:51 - Trading Strategy: Risk-Reward Ratio
00:02:34 - Revenue Growth vs. Losses
00:03:55 - Debt and Cash Flow Concerns
00:05:01 - Valuation Metrics and Market Position
00:06:40 - Market Trends and Electric Vehicle Viability
00:09:12 - Joint Venture with Volkswagen
00:10:48 - Price Target and Market Resistance
00:12:03 - Investment Analogy: Cousin Eddie's Business Idea
00:13:38 - Conclusion: The Case Against Rivian
00:14:34 - Final Thoughts and Risk Warning

"Well, at first glance, clicking the daily chart, I'm going to say that Rivian is probably a short right here." - 00:00:24

"Rivian is in a concerted downtrend, and there's no question about that." - 00:01:09

"This would have been a good buy, this would have been a good sell." - 00:02:01

"Net income, minus $5 billion. So that is billion with a B." - 00:02:35

"Their gross profit, which is actually a gross loss, is all over the map." - 00:03:44

"I don't even have to look at this to know that this company's headed for bankruptcy." - 00:08:40

"The electric vehicle market is not getting larger, it's actually getting smaller." - 00:09:12

"If you just look at the price chart, the price chart is locked in a death spiral." - 00:08:51

"I just don't see what the attraction is for people to own companies that make no money." - 00:12:03

"Why do you people buy this dog shit?" - 00:14:10