Nate Silver's New Election Forecast Helps Explain Why Dems And Media Are Readying The Excuses

Posted • September 4, 2024: There are signs that the Democrats and media know the "excitement" about the Kamala Harris and Tim Walz campaign is either waning or was never there in the first place. It looks like a familiar excuse is being prepared: Biden administration announces major actions to tackle Russian efforts to influence 2024 election. -- There are other signs the Harris campaign knows they might have some problems: If Harris were really winning, I don't think she'd be campaigning in Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota two months before the election. Also likely to be contributing to some Democrat panic is Nate Silver's forecast that shows Harris' slipping back down post-convention:

Latest Nate Silver forecast (9/3)

Chance of winning
🟥 Trump: 56.7% (highest since 7/31)
🟦 Harris: 43.0%
——
Swing States: chance of winning

Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 57-43%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump 64-36%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 67-33%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 70-30%
Nevada - 🔴 Trump 57-43%
Michigan - 🔵 Harris 51-49%
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris 53-47%
——
Polymarket odds
🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 47%

Polymarket swing states odds: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWkNN-gXEAEpUEO?format=jpg&name=medium -- Trump now up by nearly two touchdowns in Nate Silver's forecast. This is after a five-week media coronation of Kamala Harris. If you're that campaign, you should be very worried. (…)

• More at: Twitchy - Nate Silver's New Election Forecast Helps Explain Why Dems and Media Are Readying the Excuses
https://twitchy.com/dougp/2024/09/04/nate-silvers-new-election-forecast-helps-explain-why-dems-and-media-are-readying-excuses-n2400521
Twitchy: THERE It Is! CNN Helps Dems Prep Harris/Dem Election Loss Excuses in a Familiar Way
https://twitchy.com/dougp/2024/09/04/there-it-is-cnn-helps-dems-prep-harris-election-loss-excuses-in-a-familiar-way-n2400519
CNN: Biden administration announces major actions to tackle Russian efforts to influence 2024 election
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/biden-administration-accuse-russia-election-influence-efforts/index.html
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https://twitchy.com/brettt/2024/09/04/justice-department-seizes-32-internet-domains-it-says-are-russian-disinformation-n2400541