The Wire - September 3, 2024

//The Wire//2200Z September 3, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES TO ESCALATE IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE. USS WASP SCHEDULED TO DEPART TURKEY ASAP. CONCERNS GROW REGARDING TDA MILITANTS SPREADING INFLUENCE.//
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-International Events-
Russia: Conflict continues to escalate as both Russia and Ukraine ramp up efforts to return to a war of motion once again. Russia has claimed to have downed hundreds of Ukrainian drones in Russian airspace over the past few days, as Ukraine continues to attempt long-range attacks against targets deep inside Russia, to include Moscow. Russia has responded in kind with cruise missile strikes on many targets deep inside Ukraine. Russia continues to push westward in the Donetsk region, as front lines that haven’t moved in months suddenly become more dynamic. The Ukrainian advance into Kursk continues, but has largely slowed as Russian forces have focused on containment instead of a brute-force, large-scale counterattack. AC: Ukraine (led by their American advisors) undoubtedly launched the Kursk offensive with the goal of pulling Russian troops from other fronts, and tying them down defending their own homeland. It’s possible that Russia is focusing on turning the tables and doing the exact same thing to Ukraine…Ukrainian forces are now bogged down in Kursk, and can’t reinforce the collapsing lines on the eastern front. Only time will tell how effective either party will be, as both sides are making large strategic gambles in their responses to the events in Kursk.
Turkey: US 6th Fleet confirmed yesterday’s incident involving several US Marines in Izmir. Local Turkish authorities also claim that the assailants have been arrested, though no independent verification of this is possible. The situation regarding the USS Wasp herself remains tenuous as thousands of protesters continue to protest outside the pier where the Wasp remains berthed. The Wasp has canceled all liberty for sailors and the embarked Marines, and is intending to get underway and depart Turkey as soon as possible.
-HomeFront-
Illinois: Overnight in Chicago, police radio traffic was intercepted by scanner watchers indicating a possible apartment takeover by Venezuelans. The apartment complex noted in the call is a Section 8 housing project on South King Drive. AC: Details are very sketchy regarding this incident. It must be stressed that the police radio traffic was a standard message from dispatch noting what a 911 caller stated in their complaint, so this information is not originating from LE sources. However, reports of large crowds of armed males are not entirely uncommon to the area, which is host to exceptionally high levels of crime. No further radio traffic from dispatch indicated the veracity of the original report, or if officers even responded to the call. However if a genuine incident was developing, other means of internal LE communications could have been used to prevent the interception of radio traffic.
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Analyst Comments: As the situation regarding TdA in Colorado continues, many areas around the country are on edge regarding the potential for TdA (or even more notorious groups) to conduct similar takeover operations in their areas, and beginning to set up strongholds in smaller cities around the United States. Like it or not, Colorado officials, and authorities in Denver and Aurora have given criminal syndicates not just the keys to the castle, but the recipes for success around the country as well. Now, even low-level criminals around the country know that they can probably be successful in their own areas, at least in locations where the rule of law is only selectively applied to citizens, with local authorities leaving migrant populations largely to their own devices. The power vacuums that have been created in the past 6 months alone are likely to result in even haphazardly-organized gangs having even more success than they themselves ever imagined. Gangs like TdA have the overwhelming advantage of violence of action, which has allowed them to seize the initiative in many areas. Right now, TdA is dominant throughout Aurora and Denver, and has established operations largely in an adversary free environment for the time being. However, this status quo is unlikely to be long-lasting; if a powerful adversarial gang were to challenge TdA’s authority, exceptionally graphic violence and utter brutality will very likely be the result.
In the long term, this unique situation could possibly escalate to the point where more kinetic actions are taking place, but local authorities will continue to treat the situation as strictly a law enforcement issue, much like has been done in major cities for the past few decades. In other words, local authorities are looking at this issue through the lens of law enforcement, when TdA itself is looking at this through a more military-centric lens. This is already causing a mis-alignment of priorities; any junior infantryman can see the warfare doctrine that criminal groups are now using, straight out of basic warfare publications. The situation has already gotten out of hand, but is nowhere near as bad as it could be if key TdA leadership find themselves operating in a contested environment.
If low-level gangs with not that much power internationally have been able to gain a strong foothold and tactically occupy and hold Key Terrain within any American city, and do so without being challenged, this perhaps warrants a change in perspective or at minimum a re-assessment of how the issue began in the first place (and the NGOs that directly caused this issue, working in conjunction with federal immigration officials).
Even with the understanding that LE institutions are bound by their own regulations, and have been established for the purpose of enforcing laws in a civil society, perhaps there is some benefit to be had from a change in perspective with regards to some of the more serious, foreign-based threats that are becoming more common. Even now, tough questions are now being asked by the citizenry caught in this mess, namely:
What can the average person do when foreign criminal gangs militarily occupy terrain within their neighborhood, and local LE are deliberately ignoring the issue out of fear and/or the lack of capabilities to do anything meaningful? Taking things a step further, if the situation develops to the point that a more military response is called for, in a post-COVID era (where trust in military institutions is wavering at best) how can a citizenry be reassured that a military response to this crisis would actually be in their best interests?
Analyst: S2A1
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