Russia surrenders to days-long fires - Ukraine launches a new method of pressure

Ukraine’s Defense Forces have shifted their focus from attacking refineries to targeting oil depots. This change, marked by regular fires at Russian oil depots in August, has raised questions about the strategic benefits of such a decision, according to Espresso TV.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military and political observer with the Information Resistance group, has delved into the issue.

One notable example is the fire in Proletarsk, Rostov Region, which burned for 10 days. But why move away from refineries after seemingly successful attacks? Let’s explore the reasoning.

Since late 2023, Ukrainian forces have consistently targeted Russian oil refineries, leading to temporary shutdowns and repairs. However, these refineries eventually resumed operations, which isn’t surprising.

A refinery operates like a small city, and disabling it for an extended period requires more than just a drone with 30 kg of explosives. While a drone can halt operations temporarily, it cannot cause long-term paralysis. In contrast, oil depots present a different and more vulnerable target.

Ukraine now has ‘kamikaze’ drones with a range of up to 2,500 km, putting numerous Russian oil depots at risk. These depots, numbering in the hundreds and varying in size, operate a substantial number of storage tanks—over 2,550 before the strikes began.

The key point is that Russia has a limited number of tanks, and rebuilding or replacing them takes much longer than repairing a refinery after a similar attack. Moreover, these strikes on oil depots are more impactful, as the number of tanks decreases with each hit, and the effect is more severe than refinery attacks.

The immediate visual impact of an oil depot attack—tanks engulfed in flames and black smoke visible for kilometers—is striking. For Ukrainians, it’s a cause for satisfaction, while for Russians, it’s a source of shock, confusion, and realization of the authorities’ powerlessness. This is just one aspect; there are others worth noting.

Firstly, the effectiveness of oil depot attacks lies in their efficiency. Secondly, the impact on the frontline is significant. Thirdly, there’s the issue of oil production. The critical point here is that if oil production stops at these mostly depleted fields, restoring them would be nearly impossible. Russia’s oil fields are in a dire situation—produce to the last drop or face collapse. Even when oil prices fell below $30 per barrel, Russian fields continued production at a loss, storing the excess in anticipation of better times.

The destruction of these storage tanks, which are limited in number, could lead Russia to an oil crisis. The country might find itself with no storage facilities and no choice but to dump the oil back into the fields.