Lukashenko's troops may enter Ukraine, German media says that such a scenario cannot be ruled out

The role of Belarus in the war in Ukraine is still not clear, writes Frankfurter Rundschau. The country, which is ruled by a dictator, has conducted joint nuclear exercises with Russia, as well as provided shelter to the mercenaries of Wagner group, the publication reminds. Fears that Minsk will actively interfere in the fighting in Ukraine have not yet been confirmed, but the situation could change, Deutsche Welle reported.

The newspaper of Berliner Morgenpost quotes in its article the words of Polish analyst Konrad Muzyka, director of the political consulting firm of Rochan Consulting. Muzyka reminds that Minsk held similar exercises in September 2023, but this time the change of territory is alarming - the troops were redeployed to Homel region, which served as a springboard for the Russian Federation during the attack in 2022. The analyst believes that a direct attack of Belarus on Ukraine is unlikely at the moment - it would require forces, which Belarus does not have, to seize the border areas, some of which are heavily mined by Ukraine.

A real attack by Belarus is not to be feared, Muzyka believes, but he voices an option, which is feared in Ukraine: Belarusian troops could make small strikes and possibly occupy a small part of the Ukrainian territory. This would mean that Kyiv would have to redeploy troops from other fronts, which would weaken the AFU. ‘The probability of such a scenario is low, but it cannot be completely ruled out,’ the Berliner Morgenpost quoted the analyst as saying.

Belarus has deployed aircraft and air defense troops to its border with Ukraine, a after President Alexander Lukashenko announced he would station almost a third of the country’s military along the frontier.

The Belarusian military also deployed anti-aircraft missiles and soldiers from the country’s radio-technical corps, Maj. Gen. Andrey Lukyanovich, commander of the Belarusian Air Defense Forces, said on national television, describing the move as a significant increase.

Belarus’ authoritarian leader, Lukashenko, on Sunday announced that he’d ordered almost a third of the army to the border with Ukraine. Although he did not specify troop numbers, Belarus’ army numbers about 60,000.

Lukashenko said the decision was in response to additional Ukrainian troops being deployed along the border, but that could not be independently verified.

Ukraine has not confirmed the Belarusian deployment to the 1,084-kilometer common border.

Russia has used Belarus — which depends on Russian loans and cheap energy — as a staging ground for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, moving its troops through Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine from the north. Russia also moved some of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus in 2023.